Saratoga Thurs. Aug. 7 Analysis

[Kitan]

EDIT: Made a late change to my selections in Race 9, affecting my Pick Four play. Also swapped the 4 (SCR) for the 6 in the second leg of my P3 starting in Race 6. And, with that SCR and the other SCRs, I've amended my Tri plays.

This early P4/P5 sequence has to be one of the worst I’ve ever seen. In fact, the entire card is quite unspectacular, but I’ve already looked at it and there are a few prices I like so let’s see what we can come up with to hopefully bounce back from Wednesday.

Race 3:
#3 Brother O’Connell…Clement 2yo turf route debutant, add his pedigree that screams turf route…I just hope I can get a decent price.
#’s 2, 6, 7, 8 are the logical exotics horses.

Micromanage should romp in the Birdstone. No value there.

Race 5:
#10 Bi Light of Day had a tough trip last time, and her prior turf races are good enough to win this. Has a good chance to be the best of a bad bunch.
#5 The Lady’s Cruisen stretches out off the drop for Rice. Logical contender.
#8 Saratoga Valley wasn’t fully cranked for her debut and will improve on the stretchout. Full brother won going long on the turf and also won a hurdle event.
#3 Transplendid is an obvious one on paper, but I feel like she’s had enough chances that she hasn’t taken. Her last was also much better on paper than in reality and I can see her getting beat again.
$1 Tri 10/3, 5, 8/ALL $21

Race 6:
I look at this race and I see two awful favourites. #1 won on a very easy lead in a short field and hasn’t been seen in the AM since a slow, slow breeze two weeks ago. #7 has been plain horrendous in his two starts for Bush, who, by the way, is not known for his dirt prowess.
The 1 for 20 lifetime record for #5 Navajo Ca Lo is far from convincing, but a repeat of his last race wins this. Also has vital speed.
#4 Golden Nugget won a NY-bred MSW at Finger Lakes just over two weeks ago. In a race like this, a horse that has increased bravery and courage off a win is always dangerous.
$1 Tri 4, 5/4, 5/ALL and 4, 5/ALL/4,5 $20

Race 7:
I’m willing to ignore #8 Race and Shine’s last race as he was back quickly and a return to either of his first two turf route efforts gives him a great chance here. Can relax with the blinkers off, and his best race came before he tried the shades.
#’s 6, 7, 9, 10 are all hopes, but I couldn’t be confident on any.
$2 Tri 8/6, 7, 10/6, 7, 9, 10 $18

Race 8:
#4 Defiant is a very speedy 4yo who destroyed a N2X at MTH on the cutback to this distance. Down in an OC N1X here, Paco doesn’t come up for nothing, and he can fly gate to wire again.
#2 Bluegrass Spring’s two wins on his form came in turf sprints on a firm track, conditions he should expect to see on Thursday. Was far from disgraced when last seen behind some decent runners and Rice will have him ready off a two month break. If he’s at 20-1, I’ll be strongly considering making a serious investment.
#9 Casa Creek fought the bit aggressively and that run should be ignored. Nihei has put some good moves into him in the mornings and it would not surprise me to see him bounce back with a much better effort at a good price.
Questions to be asked about if #5 can beat this class, #6 seems like he will be burnt out chasing #4 (although Castellano may try and rate him), and #8 may also not be able to hang with my pick in the final stages.
$1 Tri 2, 4/2, 4, 9/All $28

Race 9:
#1 Ghurair was a very impressive winner two back and he had no chance in the United Nations after being shuffled back to last. It was a good effort in my opinion as he couldn’t come home any quicker anyways. I won’t toss around the L word, but he’s the one to beat.
#3 Red Rifle couldn’t get past the notorious wire-to-wire Plainview last time out. He could potentially end up in that role this time around and is a dangerous threat.
#5 Lochte is the one I made the late change to include. His two races at MTH have been far from standard (his one in June I can excuse as he appeared to be short from his worktab) but if you can get around that he's still a G1 winner at 9f and wasn't far off closing behind #3 when they ran 1-2 around the track. May be the forgotten horse.
#9 Reflecting gets class relief here and with that in mind I can easily see him stepping it up a notch. However, he does seem better suited going longer so I'll put him in my exotics and not my P4 (I originally did).
#7 Tetradrachm needs a complete turnaround from his last effort. Impressive winner at the Spa last year, but seems to have tailed off and is now in for a tag. Not for me in this chalky affair.

Race 10:
#5 Barrier to Entry rates a huge longshot chance here. I feel that she is better suited to the turf---sprinting---and her last race is much better than it seems on paper. A step slow at the start, Meijas revved her up to take a clear lead off a 21 3/5 quarter---the fastest on the card---and with that in mind she didn’t quit all that badly. I really like the switch to a senior jockey, a HOFer at that, and now that she’s gotten accustomed to the blinkers I think she’ll run huge here. Bombs away, hopefully.
The same jock switch worked earlier in the meet for Quartarolo and it’s quite possible to see déjà vu here with #10 Gu Gu Beans. Although this filly goes up in class, if she doesn’t bounce off her big effort last time she should be there at the finish.
#7 Rose Quartz is better suited sprinting, according to her dam’s side. If #4 Honeychild runs like she did last year at SAR she wins. Nihei had #9 Given Fire ready to roll last year off the layoff, and the cutback will help.
#3 Jenny’s Creek is 0 for 17…there were lots of things I liked about #11 Home to Carrowkeel, but at the end of the day Meijas is 1 for 73 on the turf. I’ll let him beat me.
$1 Tri 5/4, 7, 9, 10/ALL $32

$0.60 Pick Four
Race 7: 7, 8, 10
Race 8: 2, 4, 9
Race 9: 1, 3, 5
Race 10: 4, 5, 7, 9, 10
$81.00 ($27.00 if singling #1 in R9)

Race 3 $5 Pick Three: 3/5/10, $3 Pick Three: 3/5/3, 5, 8 $14
Race 4 $2 Pick Three: 5/3, 5, 8, 10/4, 5 $16
Race 5 $3 Pick Three: 10/4, 5/7, 8, 10 $18
Race 6 $1 Pick Three: 4, 5/6, 7, 8, 10/2, 4, 9 $24

Looks like I'll spend more than anticipated when I first glanced at the card, but there looks to be a lot of value in the latter races. Good luck!