7/18 SAR Opening Day Pick 5

[ateamstupid]

1st: I like #5 Grandpa Len in here. The underrated David Donk got him turned into a nice dirt horse before he was laid up for 482 days. His 6/26 turf return has all the earmarks of a pure prep race -- Donk knows he's not a turf horse and was likely pointing to Saratoga, where his dirt career crystallized. He was very good in all three races at this track and distance as a 3-year-old in 2012. #3 Successful Brothers was a good 2nd to the far superior Carey Street two back at this trip at CD, then ran a pretty respectable 4th behind a slow pace at nearly 29-1 going 12 furlongs on turf. Now he gets a big drop in class and a positive rider switch. #8 Goodnewsisnonews is perfectly logical for Repole/Pletcher, but is likely to be overbet. #4 King of Broadway is another dropper for Mott and he shows a best-of-98 bullet breeze 7/6 that was .35 seconds faster than the next fastest breeze on the tab. You'd imagine Saez would try to use that speed to his advantage in this paceless group. #1 Kowboy Boots goes out for must-respect connections, but I'm not sure this Kodiak Kowboy son wants to go nine furlongs and I question the quality of his last race. #2 Winter Games was awful when too close to a very fast pace two-back, then didn't fire at all over a very muddy track last out. Before that, he has several fast track dirt races that make him competitive with these.

A: 3,4,5
B: 1,2,8

2nd: #1 Aimone is bred mainly for turf, but has clearly got some early gas from her local workouts and the fact that, as a Lemon Drop Kid, she was even brought to a 2-year-old in training sale, much less sold there for $210k. Contessa's babies ran very well at Belmont in the past few weeks. #3 By the Moon is a Sam Siegel Jay Em Ess homebred whose parents both figure to pass on a lot of speed. Michelle Nevin isn't the type to drill fast works, but this filly's last two breezes have been quick and her gate work the other day was reportedly terrific. It doesn't take a genius to find #6 Vinolicious, who has all the looks of a live Wesley Ward 2YO. #4 Lady of Victory, #2 Know It All Anna and #8 Wall Street Lady also look like contenders.

A: 1,3,6
B: 2,4,8

3rd: Not much to say about this Schuylerville. #4 Fashion Alert was very impressive and professional in her debut and gets the benefit of drawing outside the other win candidate, #2 Tuliras Star.

A: 4
B: 2

4th: #3 Mumtaazah is pretty clearly the horse to beat. Her debut 2nd was extremely impressive, as she was squeezed back sharply after the start, made an enormous wide move on the far turn, then lost all momentum when shying in from the whip and switching back to her left lead in the stretch. Obviously the 250-day break since then is a concern, but Kiaran McLaughlin is one of the best in the country in bringing horses back off long layoffs. This filly showed a lot of promise in that debut and I have to figure she's ready to strut her stuff today. She'll need to be on her game though, as several of these fillies have been working very well for returns or debuts. #7 Premura showed very good speed in her unveiling here last summer and returns off a layoff with several strong workouts. She also could pull a good trip outside of the other speed. There are whispers about #6 M B And Tee dusting workmates in the morning and doing so professionally. She should be an OK price.

A: 3
B: 6,7
C: 1,2,5,8

5th: #3 Can'thelpbelieving will be tough to beat. The 3YO colt ran very well last out and this has to be considered a class drop, despite the fact he's facing elders today. He picks up John Velazquez for the scorching-hot turf barn of Graham Motion and seems a prime candidate to improve with the stretchout to 11 furlongs. If I'm going to try to beat him, I don't want either of the likely 2nd and 3rd choices, Papy and Special Agent. Special Agent was a perfect-trip parasitic 2nd behind Horvat Clan, who got away with murder on the front end. Papy was a little more against it from a pace perspective, but really did no running whatsoever. #2 My Afleet ran way better than it looks on paper last out, contesting a very fast pace and looking like he was backing up at the top of the stretch, only to re-rally gamely and miss 2nd by a neck to a perfect-trip closer. His 5/11 effort was sneaky good too. Could be sitting on a big race if able to relax early. #8 Duke of Perth is a half-brother to Forte Del Marmi and goes out for a Todd Wyatt barn that can pop with a price at SAR in exactly these kind of spots. He gives up a lot of recency to most of these though, having not been out in 282 days. #4 E Biscuit is worth at least a look at big price. He stepped forward over the winter at GP to make his sheet figures competitive and all things considered, he ran pretty well to be beaten just 5 1/4 in the aforementioned Horvat Clan race.

A: 3
B: 2
C: 4,8

[MaTH716]

Good stuff Joey, Best of luck for the meet.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Good stuff Joey, Best of luck for the meet.

Thanks Matt, you too. Quick postscript: It'll go unnoticed w/all the festivities today, but there are two carryovers at MTH, $30k apiece in the Pick 4 (race 3) and Pick 5 (race 6). Added to already low 15% takeout.

[casp0555]

I wish I was not at work..... Thanks for the write up Joey, g'luck today and the rest of the meet.