10/4: Belmont Park ($486k C/O); Keeneland (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

Belmont P6 carried again Thursday running the pot to $486k for Friday. The sequence went squirrelly fast when Seven Dreams passed them all in the 4th at 18-1 and was moved along in the 7th by Jacks R Wild who broke his maiden in try #19 at 13-1. Took a couple of deflating beats that really hurt on the day, none more Sycamore Lane in the nightcap at 22-1. ATR listeners heard the thoughts on the Mott second time starter whose employment of Phil Teator was a positive red flag. Hope everyone did OK and are ready for a fun afternoon that includes opening day at Keeneland..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$486k C/O starts here..

What to do with Weaver layoff runner Despite Her Form? Away 435 days..

Most Likely: #8 Sapphire Blue 9-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #6 East Coast Express 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Despite Her Form 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Coralita 9-2 8th


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Pace scenario key to approach here. Ground Force can take over from Cactus City Road and be the one to catch, but Don Tito (2nd time for Jacobson) and Photon (Blinkers on, Castellano lured) could prompt resulting in collapse potential. That could deliver it to Wee Freudian (First off claim for Levine). Won't help you for P6, but watch to see if bandages come off Photon after the 100 day vacation..

Most Likely: #8 Ground Force 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Wee Freudian 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Don Tito 2-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #5 Photon 8-1 2nd


7th: MCLM/$65k, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Radiant 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Rock Me Mama 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Shy Society 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Tres Hermanas 8-1 WON ($13.80)


8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Impossible group. #1a Candy Drawer a half to Harmonious..

Most Likely: #1e Shirreffs entry 7-2 8th/11th
Next Best: #3 Masasi 8-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Severine 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Ballerina Belle 3-1 WON ($9.10)


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Divine Luck 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Lisvernane 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Sally's Dream 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Corporate Culture 4-1 4th


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

NONE can be eliminated from this. Good luck..

Most Likely: #7 Dust Em Mick 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Miss Sweet Afleet 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 With Diamonds 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Imanindianoutlaw 4-1 4th


<$300/$150 P6 Plays:

5: 6-8
6: 1-2-8
7: 2
8: 1 (3)
9: 1-2-3-9
10: 3-4-7

2x3x1x2x4x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
2x3x1x1x4x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 1-3-6-9
9: 1-2-3-9
10: 3-4-7-10

2x4x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Central Banker 7-2 4th
Next Best: #12 Bull Dozer 9-2 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #11 Sir Applesolutely 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Xbalanque 4-1 9th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rivendell 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 One Golden Road 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 City Connect 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 I'll Call 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #11 Prado Cat 5-1 8th


8th: 16th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Laugh Track 12-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Marchman 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Gentleman's Bet 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Ghost Is Clear 12-1 11th
Super Add: #8 Go Blue Or Go Home 8-1 3rd


9th: 62nd Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #12 Rosalind 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 My Conquistadory 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #9 Harlan's Special 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 She's Offlee Good 8-1 12th


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Emerald Crescent 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Eye of the Eagle 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Rocky Bear 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Truly Amazing 10-1 WON ($16.00)


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 6-12
7: 1-2-4-5-11
8: 1-3-6-7-8-9-10
9: 7-12
10: 5

2x5x7x2 = 140 x .50 = $70


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-5-11
8: 1-3-6-7-8-9-10
9: 7-9-10-12
10: 5

5x7x4x1 = 140 x .50 = $70


Good luck!
Steve