7/6: Belmont ($48k C/O); Calder (Summit of Speed)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Excellent NYB ALW to start the day with top 3 faves (Mobridge, Papa Freud, Mr Cowboy) all credentialed and another trio (Barnards Galaxy, Hepatologist, Status of Forces) looming while offering value..

Most Likely: #3 Barnards Galaxy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Mobridge 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Status of Forces 20-1 WON ($51.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Hepatologist 8-1 7th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Darley entry OK while Easement (Jerkens) and Sliver and Onions (Hushion) hit board in underbet debuts. Two interesting firsters here with Shirreffs presenting latest Stronach drop from wonderful Perfect Sting (Supreme Commander) and Michelle Nevin getting Samantha Siegel's $350k Mineshaft yearling purchase (Touchofstarquality) to the track. Both have worked nicely for this with Supreme Commander seemingly pedigreed for turf routing and Touchofstarpower not possessing a win early page. Tough call after the obvious ones that come in with experience..

Most Likely: #1 Darley entry 4-1 3rd/6th
Best Value: #4 Easement 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Sliver and Onions 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Touchofstarquality 5-2 WON ($14.20)


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Valid 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 So Scott 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Nevada Kid 7-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Bad Hombre 3-1 WON ($13.60)


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro on ATR Friday, a fascinating 'Saratoga-esque' test which includes old hopper fave Spy in the Sky (!) likely prepping for a defense of the A.P. Smithwick. Tough group to decipher overall with pace certain to decide outcome. Arc Above's 2 wins have come this trip and strip. Needs to improve further but he's 12-1 on the line and may float higher..

MAJOR SCR'S: 3-5-10

Best Value: #1 Arc Above 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Star Channel 3-1 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Tricky Hat 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tiz Gianni 4-1 7th


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Rock On Baby 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #4 Stella Girl 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Chick in Slacks 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Edie 7-2 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-5-6
3: 2-3-5-7
4: 1-4-6
5: 4-5

4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/3/3,4,5,10,12,13,14,15,16/2,5,6,10) Paid $150.75


6th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$41,581 P6 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to the sequence. Tiz for Tat faced nice juveniles last year and could be better than these if ready. Sliver and Onions in the 2nd is a referendum for Mr. O'Leary SCR here as they were a neck apart in debuts. Mentor Cane ran into Flashback in their unvielings. Street Prince another first time 3yo and he found Forty Tales when making first start..

Most Likely: #3 Tiz for Tat 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Mentor Cane 7-2 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #1 Street Prince 15-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Siete C 5-1 5th


7th: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Don't like this sinkhole event one bit. Looks like there is a lot of pace and that's exactly when everybody looks at each other out of the gate and grabs hold. I wouldn't be comfortable in multis unless I had them all. Speed of the speed is veteran returnee Western Prospector who's working up a storm at FLakes for the comebacker..

Most Likely: #6 Make a Fortune 3-1 5th
Next Best: #8 He's So Chic 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Western Prospector 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Ground Force 4-1 4th


8th: 127th Suburban (G2), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Flat Out looking for 2nd win in this as is Mott. But Flat Out's win came for Scooter Dickey. Mott's other Suburban winner? Wekiva Springs!

Most Likely: #4 Flat Out 1-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Fast Falcon 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Alpha 5-1 4th


9th: 96th Dwyer (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Abraham 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Make Your Move 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Battier 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 For Greater Glory 5-1 3rd


10th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

Best Value: #10 Bundestag 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 El Corriente 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Sense of Peace 6-1 12th
Super Add: #7 Smiling Bob 6-1 2nd


11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #9 Campogiovanni 3-1 -
Best Value: #8 Eleven Bravo 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Collaborator 15-1 -
Exotics Use: #2 Here Comes Tommy 6-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 3-9
7: 6-8
8: 4
9: 1-5-6
10: 6-10
11: 7-8-9

2x2x1x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 4
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6
10: 6-7-10-12
11: 2-7-8-9

1x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48



CALDER RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 20th Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (.10 Jackpot P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Determinato 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Regally Ready 4-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Silver Cloud 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Madame Giry 6-1 4th


7th: 38th Carry Back (G3), 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Mico Margarita 3-1 WON ($9.30)
Best Value: #4 City of Weston 4-1 6th
Next Best: #1 R Free Roll 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Rockyshomerun 6-1 7th


8th: 38th Azalea (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

The more you look at this the deeper and trickier it gets. Terrific race..

Most Likely: #9 Dreaming of Susie 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Twice Told Tale 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Speedinthruthecity 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Street Girl 8-1 5th


9th: 30th Smile Sprint H. (G2), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

As has been discussed, a fascinating group of accomplished sprinters that have amassed 69 wins and $8,000,000 between them. Several look to recapture lost form including Fred Brei's beloved Jackson Bend. Hard to argue against any combination you may come up with. Note that Marty Wolfson said on ATR Friday that he was contemplating a SCR ** of Swagger Jack..

Most Likely: #4 Justin Phillip 7-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Jackson Bend 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Trinniberg 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Close It Out 12-1 6th


10th: 29th Princess Rooney (G1), F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Judy the Beauty 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Holiday Soiree 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Sweet Cassiopeia 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Oh Carole 15-1 9th


11th: Hollywood Wildcat, F&M-3+, 7.5f-T

Most Likely: #5 Frolic's Revenge 4-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Angelica Zapata 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Awesome Belle 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Celestial Kitten 6-1 6th


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-4-7
8: 3-9
9: 4-11
10: 1-5-9
11: 1-5-6-11

3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-9
9: 4-11-12
10: 1-5-9
11: 1-5-6-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve