Handicapping The Turf!

The single most important factor in handicapping a race on turf is ignored by most handicappers. The turf rail.

In a nutshell, track superintendents use the turf rail to protect the grass. After a dozen or so races, over a couple of days, they erect the temporary rail moving the race outward from the hedge. At Churchill for instance, the settings are; zero (hedge), 15 feet and 22 feet. How does the movement effect the race?

Primitively and briefly, when the race is on the hedge closers get a faster pace, lose less ground and are tough to hold off late. Conversely, when the rail is up/out closers catch softer splits, lose (more) ground around the turns and generally see their rally fall short. Being wide when the rail is out is almost certain death.

A case in point. Tuesday, September 26th at Kentucky Downs I played the late pick 4, after Saturdays card was postponed, twice. First a bit of background. I live within 50 miles of Kentucky Downs and although we got rain Saturday, Sunday and Monday featured brilliant sunshine and wind. I could not have imagined that Tuesdays races would be run with the rail out. After all it was the last day of a very abbreviated meet. But they were, and my pick 4 was toast.

The rail was set at an incredible 33 FEET! Brisnet reported it at 37ft, but I spoke with track super Tommy Sullivan yesterday and he confirmed 33 feet, as well as six inches of rain Saturday. Mr. Sullivan had to flag out the course making sure his 62 foot long gate fit. Then get help for him and his three man team, from the gate crew, the stall cleaners and anyone else he could recruit.

The results; Race 1 rank ousider...wire to wire... $75
2 wire to wire
3 up close, rail rally
4 rank outsider, virtually wire to wire, $71 ( I saw a poster pick this horse (on Saturday) but as you can this was the proverbial blind squirrel finding an acorn, if the race was on the hedge this horse had no chance)
5 Off pace maiden with a race over the track (Lil Firefly may show up at CD and could fill the exotics at a big number)
6 First timer, rail rally
7 up close, perfect trip, favorite
8 wire to wire
9 broke in front, prompted,much best
10 perfect trip, much best
11 wire to wire $18
12 perfect trip favorite
13 rail rally

I guess I should have sensed trouble when the stake races were carded as the first four races, but the bottom line is I spent four hours handicapping and did not check into the most important factor; the turf rail! Play again somewhere Sunday and will do better. Good cappin. BBB