BC Classic future odds

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Bernardini 13-8
Invasor 7-2
Lava Man 5-1
Shirocco 10-1
David Junior 11-1
Dylan Thomas 12-1
Sun King 14-1
Jazil, who likely will not be ready, 16-1,
Lawyer Ron 20-1
Brother Derek, Second of June, and Super Frolic at 25-1
Jokermo, Perfect 3rd place, Weak Contender, and Suave 33-1.

Nothin doin.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Wouldnt take any of those.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Wouldnt take any of those.

Who do you like then?

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

Who do you like then?

I like several of those horses, and I'm confident in saying that the winner is on that list, but the prices are much too low.

Either Bernardini or Invasor is going to lose the JCGC (if not both) so the post time odds on one of the two should be higher than being offered right now.

I will never take anything lower than 10/1 in a future bet because the risk outweighs the reward so the first 3 are out.

I have no confirmation that Shirocco is going in the Classic or the connections are doing anything more than throwing the idea around

David Junior and Dylan Thomas could be the only horses with a big possibility of going off under their futures odds, but good luck deciphering their form...

Sun King is a horse that I like for the race, but I wouldnt touch him at 14/1. Hoping for a hot pace and closer to 20/1

Bro Derek is nowhere near this class and the other two would be available at greater than 25/1 if the gates opened tomorrow

THe rest, hah, not a chance...

The only horse I'd briefly consider outside of these is Lawyer Ron, but that consideration would like be just that - brief.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

I think a few more horses will rise up before the BC its a hard thing to have a top notch racehorse on there A game all year like, LAVA MAN, and INVASOR My tickets are gonna be on the longshots in the classic, common Valponi! LMAO

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

I think a few more horses will rise up before the BC its a hard thing to have a top notch racehorse on there A game all year like, LAVA MAN, and INVASOR My tickets are gonna be on the longshots in the classic, common Valponi! LMAO

With 33-1 odds, go with my boy... I have a feeling...

[Gander]

Invasor at 7/2 and Lava Man at 5/1, 7 weeks away and still 1 prep to be run for each horse? Thats absolutely insane. You will be able to get at least those odds on the day of, if not higher.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Gander

Invasor at 7/2 and Lava Man at 5/1, 7 weeks away and still 1 prep to be run for each horse? Thats absolutely insane. You will be able to get at least those odds on the day of, if not higher.

Precisely. Future bets at these odds seem to be more about bragging rights than money making opportunities.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

Bernardini 13-8
Invasor 7-2
Lava Man 5-1
Shirocco 10-1
David Junior 11-1
Dylan Thomas 12-1
Sun King 14-1
Jazil, who likely will not be ready, 16-1,
Lawyer Ron 20-1
Brother Derek, Second of June, and Super Frolic at 25-1
Jokermo, Perfect 3rd place, Weak Contender, and Suave 33-1.

Where did you get those odds? They are not representative of what is already available in future bets. When you title a thread, "Breeder's Cup Future Odds", it would be a lot more meaningful if you post the source of your odds.

I don't know where you got these odds, but I'm sure I can point to far better future odds on most if not all of these horses.

Here are the odds available from VIPsports and its sister, Gameday:

Bernardini 5-2
Invasor 7-1
Lava Man 6-1
Jazil 25-1
Brother Derek 30-1
Sun King 20-1
Suave 50-1
etc...

Each of those is way better than the ones you posted. I'm no fan of Gameday, but both Gameday and its sister are A-rated at Sportsbookreview.com.

I'll post a list of best future odds from several racebooks by next week.

--Dunbar

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

The Bloodhorse

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Where did you get those odds? They are not representative of what is already available in future bets. When you title a thread, "Breeder's Cup Future Odds", it would be a lot more meaningful if you post the source of your odds.

I don't know where you got these odds, but I'm sure I can point to far better future odds on most if not all of these horses.

Here are the odds available from VIPsports and its sister, Gameday:

Bernardini 5-2
Invasor 7-1
Lava Man 6-1
Jazil 25-1
Brother Derek 30-1
Sun King 20-1
Suave 50-1
etc...

Each of those is way better than the ones you posted. I'm no fan of Gameday, but both Gameday and its sister are A-rated at Sportsbookreview.com.

I'll post a list of best future odds from several racebooks by next week.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

It was originally posted that Invasor is 7/2. Think about this. The BC Classic is 7 weeks away, he hasnt run in his final prep yet. We dont even know if he makes the BC Classic.

You will be able to get in the neighborhood of 7/2 on Invasor in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2.5 weeks the day of that race. That race will surely come up weaker than the BC Classic with Bernardini being his chief opposition.

Why wouldnt you just bet Invasor at Belmont in 2 weeks at around the same price, in a field that will not include Lava Man and some of the possible Euro unknowns on a track he has already won on?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

It was originally posted that Invasor is 7/2. Think about this. The BC Classic is 7 weeks away, he hasnt run in his final prep yet. We dont even know if he makes the BC Classic.

You will be able to get in the neighborhood of 7/2 on Invasor in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2.5 weeks the day of that race. That race will surely come up weaker than the BC Classic with Bernardini being his chief opposition.

Why wouldnt you just bet Invasor at Belmont in 2 weeks at around the same price, in a field that will not include Lava Man and some of the possible Euro unknowns on a track he has already won on?

That's all true, Gander. But at the 7-1 available at Gameday, you cannot make those statements. I'm not saying Invasor is a good bet at 7-1, only that 7-1 can't be dismissed without some thought. (in the way you showed that 7-2 can)

If someone really liked Invasor, the 7-1 might be reasonable. We will NOT see 7-1 on Invasor in the JCGC, and if Invasor is good enough to win the BCC, he will almost certainly show it in the JCGC. And there goes his BCC odds, if you see what I mean.

For someone who really likes Invasor's chances in the BCC, the best reason to NOT take the 7-1 is that something better may be available when Pinnacle and TheGreek get around to posting their future odds.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

I agree, there is a huge difference between 7/2 and 7/1. The difference between profiting $350 for every $100 risked as opposed to $700 for every $100 risked.

If you are a huge Invasor fan for the Classic, it may be wise to make this bet now as opposed to waiting until after the Jockey Club Gold Cup. If Invasor wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup his future odds in the Classic will probably go down in the 4/1 - 5/1 range.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

I will never take anything lower than 10/1 in a future bet because the risk outweighs the reward so the first 3 are out.

You wouldn't take Bernardini at 9-1? I'd be all over that one.

The risks can be estimated. And if a horse has, say, a 75% chance to start in the race, and, say, a 33% chance to win if he starts (some would consider that too conservative for Bernardini), then overall he has about a 25% chance to win the race. That would put fair odds for a future bet at around 3-1. I'd make a much bigger than normal bet if I could get 9-1.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

As much a fan of Bernardini as I am, 3/1 odds isnt all that great to me Dunbar. Theres another race to run before the Classic and many workouts still to happen between now and first week of November. The biggest knock I have against Bernardini is something may not go right between now and then. 3/1 isnt worth it in my book. Seems like far too many things can go wrong with horses and it makes no difference what kind of horse it is. The horse can come down with a cold the week of the race and not start.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

As much a fan of Bernardini as I am, 3/1 odds isnt all that great to me Dunbar. Theres another race to run before the Classic and many workouts still to happen between now and first week of November. The biggest knock I have against Bernardini is something may not go right between now and then. 3/1 isnt worth it in my book. Seems like far too many things can go wrong with horses and it makes no difference what kind of horse it is. The horse can come down with a cold the week of the race and not start.

You are probably right. I'm not really stressing the 3-1. I was illustrating how one could estimate the risk and get an idea what fair future odds might be. I was primarily responding to the poster's remark that he/she'd never take less than 10-1 on a future bet.

I chose a 75% chance that Bernardini makes the race and a 33% chance he wins if he makes the race. (btw, which of those do you think is off?). My main point was that 9-1 is definitely worth taking, no matter what reasonable numbers you assign to those two probabilities.

If you think Bernardini has just a 60% chance to make the race, and if you think he has just a 25% chance of winning it if he starts, you'd come up with an overall 15% chance of winning. (60%*25% = 15%) Those figs would suggest that 5-1 is about fair. 9-1 would still look very generous.

--Dunbar

[slotdirt]

Perfect third place....that actually made me laugh out loud.