Last 20 Ky Derby winners

[Calzone Lord]

Here's what the most recent race looked like through the month of Feb of their Ky Derby winning 3yo season..

[Calzone Lord]

Poven early speed is very important.

16 of the 20 horses above raced within 2.5 lengths of the lead after 4 furlongs.

The 4 who didn't...

* Go For Gin was 4.5 lengths back after 4 furlongs. He, of course, eventually won the Ky Derby wire-to-wire. He was also a proven speed horse.



* Real Quiet was 5.5 lengths back in a non-effort. He had showed early speed as a maiden...here he is right on top of 22 opening quarters in sprints before fading in the stretch.



* Charismatic was 9 lengths off of a 43 and change half mile. Charismatic, like Real Quiet, had also showed excellent early speed in maiden races before always fading badly in the stretch. Here's Charismaic's early form..




* Street Sense was 11 lengths off of the early lead. Street Sense also showed sensational early speed in maiden sprints...here is his early form of it ..



Street Sense was only a half length back chasing Piratesonthelake through a 21.50 opening quarter mile. He was another who truly had strong sprint speed but was a much better race horse when held up early.

[RockHardTen1985]

Is this to show us how much you love Secret Circle?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Is this to show us how much you love Secret Circle?

I'm not even sure he's better than Fed Biz or Bodemeister. He might be the 3rd best router in your lovers stable.

They're all close to me. Bejarano used all them for positon out of the gate and I haven't seen what either of the three is capable of when they aren't sent...because it's never happened before with any of them.

Because of how lightly raced early 3-year-olds are now...it's a big guessing game with a lot of them until they prove what they are and what they want to do.

People love slow young horses. The ones who don't have much speed and come from 6 lengths off of it to win with a moderate figure -- those aren't the ones who win the Derby. Even Giacomo was right on top of fast paces (albeit because of speed biases) -- Mine That Bird blew leads in the stretch in his two Derby preps. Even the deep closers had good raw speed. That was the point.

[GPK]

That Jan. 16th race where Bodemeister ran 2nd to American Act seems like it might be coming back pretty strong.
Obviously, Bodemeister won next out. The 7th place and 8th place runners from that race finished 1-2 ($212 exacta) in the 4th on Sunday, going 6.5 down the hill, at odds of 6-1 over 40-1

[Calzone Lord]

Indy Dancer was 14-to-1 to win the Kentucky Derby in the 1st future pool...even though he didn't have enough early speed to keep contact with fields in below par maiden and alw routes...and was untested against decent horses after just two career races.




These are the kind a lot of people fall in love with because they are sure they will "get the distance"

He was even 8-to-1 in the Wood Memorial against Empire Maker and Funny Cide after back to back double digit length beatdowns by Badge Of Silver and Empire Maker.

A horse like War Emblem -- they tried to rate him and he wouldn't rate. So they took him to Sportsmans Park for an alw race, took him off the triple crown trial, and just let him go to the lead. He crushed the Sportsman Park alw horses, upset Repent in the Illi Derby, and wired the KY Derby.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

These are the kind a lot of people fall in love with because they are sure they will "get the distance"

Exactly. Every horse can get the distance if they go slow enough. Sure sounds like for all the fears that a horse might prove unable to get 1 1/4 because they're a sprinter type, you gotta have some sort of speed in there most of the time. At least from the stats you've shown us. I think Baffert's remarked on that as well.

Aren't there tests that can predict router/sprinter based on length of the whatsits (that's the technical term) that makes up the muscle? (For some reason the words fast and slow twitch come to mind but that might be nothing.) Is that just something scientists have done studies on or has anybody actually used them to determine their horse's propensity? I assume even if you knew that, it might be that your horse also has a soundness, breathing, or psychological issues affecting what it can do so the muscle would just be one factor.

[RockHardTen1985]

Doug what's your opinion of take charge indy and midnight transfer??

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Proven early speed is very important.

16 of the 20 horses above raced within 2.5 lengths of the lead after 4 furlongs.

The 4 who didn't...

* Go For Gin was 4.5 lengths back after 4 furlongs. He, of course, eventually won the Ky Derby wire-to-wire. He was also a proven speed horse.



* Real Quiet was 5.5 lengths back in a non-effort. He had showed early speed as a maiden...here he is right on top of 22 opening quarters in sprints before fading in the stretch.



* Charismatic was 9 lengths off of a 43 and change half mile. Charismatic, like Real Quiet, had also showed excellent early speed in maiden races before always fading badly in the stretch. Here's Charismaic's early form..




* Street Sense was 11 lengths off of the early lead. Street Sense also showed sensational early speed in maiden sprints...here is his early form of it ..



Street Sense was only a half length back chasing Piratesonthelake through a 21.50 opening quarter mile. He was another who truly had strong sprint speed but was a much better race horse when held up early.

It's basically a case of history repeating itself this year with proven early speed horse I'll Have Another.

I'll Have Another was able to hold on for a wire-to-wire debut win at 5.5 furlongs. He coughed up an early lead at 6fs in his second start. He was always on the lead or 2nd early-on.


This is why handicapping the KY Derby is a pain in the ass and such a guessing game.

Every year -- you have about six proven early speed horses like this who you know are going to be forced into changing their running style.

Typically, most of them will bomb and run horrible races ... but mostly every single year... one or sometimes two of them will relax nicely well off the pace, get a clear trip, and thrive. You just have to guess.

I'll Have Another is basically an early speed horse, who was able to relax well back, get a clear trip and handle all the dirt hitting him in the face for the 1st time just fine. If you guessed right, you got paid by a horse who showed a brand new dimension and used his early speed as an asset instead of a liablity.

His form is below..

[Calzone Lord]

[ArlJim78]

except he didn't suddenly change styles today. in his his two route races this year he ran very relaxed and not overly fast like an early speed horse.