11/13: Aqueduct; Calder; Churchill (Late P4's)

[Kasept]

Took a couple days to get the feel back for NY after almost 3 weeks focused on Cup, but I had a much better look Friday than Wed/Thurs, and was pleased to point people in the right direction throughout the card. Missed the P6, but day turned out fine with the double payout in the Late P4 returning just under $600. One lesson about the carryover was that when they get that big, the heavier investment or group bet approach is quite worthwhile. I put in a very modest play of $64 when it came time (having arrived late at Aqueduct in a foul mood having missed Lloydobler's race). But a full frontal attack with main/backup tickets on a serious budget would have had a real chance at success for the $135k, as all 6 winners were within my tabs (One 4th choice; Five 2nd choices). Hope everybody did well! Fun day of racing ahead with Stakes at Calder and nice late season cards at Aqueduct and Churchill.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

No less than half a dozen ways to lean here if against 5-2 favorite Sky Blue Pink who is just OK..

SCR of #12 Zealous Boy changes my thoughts here a bit..

Most Likely: #6 Sky Blue Pink 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #10 Dougie 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 City Train 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Fortissi More 8-1 6th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult set with some hard knockers facing off against condition runners..

Most Likely: #8 Harmonizer 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 More Than a Reason 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Brother Bird 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Groomed for Victory 6-1 WON ($8.50)


8th: 54th Long Island H. (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Changing Skies 1-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Mekong Melody 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #7 Daveron 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Sweet and Flawless 6-1 6th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Rein King 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Conflicted 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Kill the Joker 4-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Broken Home 6-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6
7: 1-3-4-5-8-9
8: 2-3
9: 1-2-4-5-7-9

1x6x2x6 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (6/12/13/15/16-9-2-4) 4 Correct Paid $309.00



CALDER RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Jack Price Juvenile-FL, 2yo, 7f (.50 P4, Super))

Best Value: #2 Ribo Bobo 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Uno Caliente 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Manicero 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #10 Determinato 4-1 7th


9th: John Franks Fillies Turf-FL, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Holidaysatthefarm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Litigating 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Salsa Bullet 8-1 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #11 Mirimichi Babe 8-1 5th


10th: Elmer Heubeck Distaff Mile-FL, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Amazing 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Joanie's Catch 10-1 WON ($26.00)
Next Best: #3 Trip for A.J. 9-5 5th
Super Add: #8 Successful Song 4-1 6th


11th: Carl Rose Classic-FL, 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Duke of Mischief 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Birdrun 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Dream Maestro 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-6
9: 3-7-10
10: 2-3-5-8
11: 4-6

3x3x4x2 = $72 (Or $36 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (4,5,7/3/2/6) Paid $1,685.50

(.50 Play Paid $842.75)



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

#14 Lunar Pass DRAWS IN..

Most Likely: #1 Delano 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Perfect Easter 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Skiff's Argument 8-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Wake Maker 6-1 12th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If no one goes with Pletcher's Zermatt, she is a serious wire threat..

Most Likely: #9 Zermatt 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Silver Sierra 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Cat Onthe Town 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1a Gold Collection 2-1 3rd


9th: 7th Commonwealth (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Unbelievably attractive wagering affair. As good as Yankee Fortune ran in Chicago, it's tough to swallow anything around the 3-1 ML on him given the 3-4 others that can exert pace pressure. At the same time, remembering that the Downs turf course is as hard today as it was last weekend, gives at least some pause to expect Victor Santiago will have the McLaughlin trainee part of the decision. Meanwhile, there are perhaps 5 players at 6-1 or more that could be in the mutuel mix..

Best Value: #7 Mister Mardi Gras 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Mystic 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Beau Choix 4-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Thunder Brew 20-1 9th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Allrightsreserved 7-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #7 King of Soul 10-1
Next Best: #9 Ziegfeld 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Wireman 20-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Juju 12-1


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3
8: 1-3-7-9
9: 6-7-9-10-11-13
10: 3-7-9

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve