10/21: Belmont (4th-9th): Keeneland ($33k C/O)

[Kasept]

Danced around with some good opinions and ideas Wednesday but missed what I wantedd the most. It turned out that having Buff Bradley visit ATR was a good call, as I made his Bellaridge (10-1 ML) kind of a 'horse of the day'. The Cactus Ridge filly gave us all the anticipated big effort at 7-1, but was gathered in late by Tom Proctor's nice Holdaysatthefarm (the 2-1 fave). The paltry $34.80 exacta was a booby prize as my play was a solid win bet and tri key off Bellaridge. No complaints though, as the horse and concept were sound.

At Belmont, there wasn't anything out of the ordinary in the charts, but I missed the P4 by swinging for the fences. It turned out chalky, so there wasn't anything to regret, and a sequence of modest P3's were there to be had to fill in the blanks. Hope you did well! It was a fun day of race wagering and watching, with one revelation being the Wonder Filly 'World Gone Wrong' who won her 12th.. that's right, 12th.. race of the year for Scott Lake, Ben Mondello and Adam Russo (Team Spooky Mulder). Lake will visit ATR this morning to talk about the Proud Citizen 4yo that is now 12/15 for '10 and 25/17-3-1 in her career. Steve Margolis, Steve Haskin, Richard Eng, Tony Black and more on the big show! Another good day of racing on tap, with Belmont below now and likely a Keeeneland look later on...


P6 CARRYOVERS TODAY: Keeneland $33k; Woodbine $45k..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Half dozen or more here are within a length or two of each other, so you might as well go after the prices intra-race. You can always cover horses like Zubani and Elegant Bess, 3-1 and 7-2 and no better than the next 7-8, in the multis if you believe in them or want to respect their win chances..

Most Likely: #7 Bella Attrice 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Mesa Girl 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Mustang Fever 6-1 WON ($24.00)
Super Add: #4 Knockinelder 15-1 5th

$1 Exacta (6-7) Paid $56.50
$1 Trifecta (6-7-10) Paid $350.00


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 STRONG IMPACT 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Don't Fooli Houli 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Spanish Fortune 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Slick Wheelie 6-1 3rd


6th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Song of Broadway most likely wins, but she's not much horse and can certainly be bet against with zesto..

Most Likely: #1 Song of Broadway 3-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #5 Crystal Galopoff 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Eliza Grace 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Above the Call 5-1 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Don't see where Lemon Spice or Laureate Conductor are all that much better than the next set of contenders, and especially consistant Lime Rickey who may relish an extra 110 yards and will be saving ground. Today may be the right day to key off him. Someone should have contacted Sunkist or the Florida Citrus Council about naming this race with Lime Rickey, Lemon Spice and Lemon Cream Pie signed on..

Best Value: #1 Lime Rickey 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Laureate Conductor 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Pleasant Strike 5-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Lemon Cream Pie 4-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 1 with 3-4-7-8 with 3-4-7-8 with ALL (1x4x3x5 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

2-1 makes Hittin the Note a bad favorite in this very quirky ALW..

Most Likely: #2 Fortitude 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 One Turn Eddie 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Inherit the Gold 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #1 Hittin the Note 2-1 5th


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cat Be Nimble 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #7 T Rae 9-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Dixie Kid 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Playful Majesty 30-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 2-7 with 2-5-7 with 2-5-6-7-8-10 with ALL (2x2x4x7 = 112 x .10 = $11.20)

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $151.25


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-5
7: 1-4
8: 1-2-5-9
9: 2-5-7

3x2x4x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (1/4/5/2) Paid $95.75



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Attempted Humor 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Doublefour 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Lucky Momento 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Tripp O Steel 4-1 9th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Perfect Prospector 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Windswept 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rampaige 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Street Flyer 30-1 3rd


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Manhattan Fox 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hurricane Day 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Northern Giant 6-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #7 Snake River Canyon 6-1 7th


7th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sweet N Sour Nina 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Ambitioness 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Moneigh 5-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Cactus Cadillac 12-1 7th


8th: 16th Sycamore (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Musketeer 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brass Hat 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #11 Tajaweed 20-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Southern Anthem 50-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $233.10
$1 Trifecta (5-1-7) Paid $801.70
$1 Superfecta (5-1-7-11) Paid $6,912.50


9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Tough to call anyone in this 'Most Likely'..

Most Likely: #11 Perfect Brother 8-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Grand Silver 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Just Blitz 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Zealous Yankee 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Hi-5 Play: #10 Irish Paul 4-1 12th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-5
5: 4
6: 8-9
7: 2-9-10
8: 5-7
9: 6-7-8-11

2x1x2x3x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 8-9
7: 2-9-10
8: 1-5-7-11
9: 6-7-8-10-11-12

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve