Odysseus pre-Derby start at KEE or OP

Kasept · #1 03-22-2010, 06:55 PM

Per Mike Welsch (DRF), after flirting with a train-up to the Kentucky Derby, Tom Albertrani says Padua Stables' Odysseus will start in either the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby as a final prep.

randallscott35 · #2 03-22-2010, 06:56 PM

Wow, the Wood lineup looking nice already....could be even deeper

slotdirt · #3 03-23-2010, 08:27 AM

I'm not sure I'm a believer in any horse that came out of the TB Derby crapfest.

Kasept · #4 03-23-2010, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm not sure I'm a believer in any horse that came out of the TB Derby crapfest.

OK John.. I'll bite. Why? Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams both appear 'forward going' types.

NTamm1215 · #5 03-23-2010, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

OK John.. I'll bite. Why? Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams both appear 'forward going' types.

The thing is, Steve, how much do they have to move forward?

Odysseus has shown he's a game horse but you also have to ride the hair off of him and those types seldom hold up to a setup like three races in seven weeks. Schoolyard Dreams is probably deserving of a more patient ride as it seems like Jeremy Rose has an idea of what works at Tampa that's just not good at all.

This is a question we're going to have to ask ourselves numerous times between now and May 1, that is, who can move up the most as what we've seen so far, even from top contenders like Lookin at Lucky, just isn't going to win the Derby.

NT

blackthroatedwind · #6 03-23-2010, 09:02 AM

I agree they have to improve but I was impressed with how Odysseus was able to regather himself despite ultimately seeming to have been ridden in a manner against the way he may be most effective. I bet he is a better one run type from farther back in the pack, and not a grinder, and if he gets a fair pace ( not saying he needs a collapse scenerio ), and is able to drop back early, he may be much more effective.

He also probably got the ride he did because they felt Super Saver was the one to beat, and didn't want him to get an easy lead, which is all reasonable thinking, but you ultimately have dance with proverbial girl that got you there, and in the future hopefully he will be farther from the lead early.

NTamm1215 · #7 03-23-2010, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree they have to improve but I was impressed with how Odysseus was able to regather himself despite ultimately seeming to have been ridden in a manner against the way he may be most effective. I bet he is a better one run type from farther back in the pack, and not a grinder, and if he gets a fair pace ( not saying he needs a collapse scenerio ), and is able to drop back early, he may be much more effective.

He also probably got the ride he did because they felt Super Saver was the one to beat, and didn't want him to get an easy lead, which is all reasonable thinking, but you ultimately have dance with proverbial girl that got you there, and in the future hopefully he will be farther from the lead early.

A tactical change could certainly be helpful as he's made it clear he can finish when the timing/opportunity is right. After watching the TB Derby too many times I just keep coming to the conclusion that the race had fallen on it's head at the eighth pole and Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver, and the huge longshot on the outside were in neutral. That being said, Odysseus' move was far from conventional.

My hope for Odysseus, from a wagering standpoint, is that he starts to make the move forward we know he has to make in the Wood Memorial but still loses and then be in position to assert himself on May 1. I don't consider him a horse with no or even poor chances right now by any means, just one with inconclusive credentials.

NT

MisterB · #8 03-23-2010, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

who can move up the most as what we've seen so far, even from top contenders like Lookin at Lucky, just isn't going to win the Derby.

NT

Lucky can run all day, and doesn't need to move up. Baffert can sit chilly training the horse, and it is evident by staying home and running in the SA derby, which he doesn't need to win, just keeping him fresh.

blackthroatedwind · #9 03-23-2010, 09:13 AM

I completely agree that his credentials are inconclusive at best. I also pretty much agree with the rest.

Odysseus is the only one from the TB Derby that interests me in the least. Schoolyard Dreams is a nice horse but I doubt he can be good enough to be competitive in the bigger races.

blackthroatedwind · #10 03-23-2010, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

Lucky can run all day, and doesn't need to move up. Baffert can sit chilly training the horse, and it is evident by staying home and running in the SA derby, which he doesn't need to win, just keeping him fresh.

Lookin at Lucky is a very nice horse, and his race at Oaklawn was pretty good, but he's also one of the favorites in a 20 horse field, and he has hardly shown anything exceptional. If one is playing big prices, Lookin at Lucky has to be used protectively in exotics, but he is also a horse that has done nothing on the racetrack to either justify a short price or instill any fear in his opposition....as opposed to Eskendereya, who IF he reproduces his Fountain of Youth, will dust the field. It's a big IF at this point but also has to be considered at least a possibility.

justindew · #11 03-23-2010, 09:23 AM

I'm a little surprised by the lack of respect that Super Saver is getting. Usually horses who win those CD fall juvy races are exposed in the spring, but considering it was his first start back, I thought his TBD effort was solid.

slotdirt · #12 03-23-2010, 09:30 AM

I would agree that Odysseus merits a second look out of that TBD race, but I can't say I hold much hope for either Schoolyard Dreams or Super Saver. I still think Uptowncharlybrown has some potential, but had a brutal trip and will instead be pointed to the Dwyer.

blackthroatedwind · #13 03-23-2010, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I would agree that Odysseus merits a second look out of that TBD race, but I can't say I hold much hope for either Schoolyard Dreams or Super Saver. I still think Uptowncharlybrown has some potential, but had a brutal trip and will instead be pointed to the Dwyer.

You'll have to expound on Uptowncharlybrown's brutal trip. I sure didn't see it.

Personally I don't understand what anyone sees in this horse. I never did.

MisterB · #14 03-23-2010, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I completely agree that his credentials are inconclusive at best. I also pretty much agree with the rest.

Odysseus is the only one from the TB Derby that interests me in the least. Schoolyard Dreams is a nice horse but I doubt he can be good enough to be competitive in the bigger races.

I thought Odysseus was pointing more to the Ark D or Toyota BG. I know they toyed with the Wood, and even training up to derby (which I think is a toss if they do that). Still Green, but coming around. Hate to see him get his head handed to him in NY.

blackthroatedwind · #15 03-23-2010, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm a little surprised by the lack of respect that Super Saver is getting. Usually horses who win those CD fall juvy races are exposed in the spring, but considering it was his first start back, I thought his TBD effort was solid.

He is OK....but he hardly has a running style that figures to enhance his chances in the Derby.

blackthroatedwind · #16 03-23-2010, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

I thought Odysseus was pointing more to the Ark D or Toyota BG. I know they toyed with the Wood, and even training up to derby (which I think is a toss if they do that). Still Green, but coming around. Hate to see him get his head handed to him in NY.

I don't understand much of this. If he " gets his head handed to him " in the Wood then I guess he's not good enough so I guess that helps people from losing money on him in the Derby.

blackthroatedwind · #17 03-23-2010, 09:39 AM

I just watched the Tampa Bay Derby again....

Uptowncharlybrown had a very easy trip and wasn't good enough. Every horse that finished ahead of him had a significantly tougher trip.

justindew · #18 03-23-2010, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He is OK....but he hardly has a running style that figures to enhance his chances in the Derby.

If Drosselmeyer makes the Derby field, it would not surpise me to see WinStar point Super Saver to the Preakness. Late start, Rule, etc.

blackthroatedwind · #19 03-23-2010, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

If Drosselmeyer makes the Derby field, it would not surpise me to see WinStar point Super Saver to the Preakness. Late start, Rule, etc.

Drosselmeyer? Stop making me laugh.

MisterB · #20 03-23-2010, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand much of this. If he " gets his head handed to him " in the Wood then I guess he's not good enough so I guess that helps people from losing money on him in the Derby.

I look at as a more of an expience thing, and maybe a easier field. Plus it's a million. If he can keep his winning ways, mentally that's better than getting clobbered. But your right, if he runs like crap in NY (if they go there) better for the betting public to toss.