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Old 10-10-2009, 05:18 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Default Zenyatta's Next Race

Ok, so where should she go after today? Which is actually the biggest risk for her and which has the most reward? Here's what I think. Obviously, one of two things happens today, a win or a loss. I'll start with a win. If she wins the race today, she's likely got the Eclipse award for her division sewn up and would tie Personal Ensign's 13-0 record and would have a chance to retire undefeated. Could she win HOY with a win in the Classic? I'd say no. Could she lose her title with a loss? Again, I'd say no. So there's little reward to be gained and little to be lost. Because of that, I'd say there's no need to go for that race. Being so close to finishing a perfect career, I'd say the logical spot would be the Distaff. I'd love to see her in the bigger race but it doesn't make enough sense for me. But what if she loses today? On one hand, you might think that with the pressure to keep her undefeated off the board now, they might loosen up a little and send her to the Classic. Try to send her off with a bang. But on the other hand, if she loses today, they might need to send her to the Distaff in order to win the Eclipse in her division. If she lost today and went to the Classic and won, the title is hers. But what if she lost today, went to the Classic and lost and either the same horse that beat her today wins the Distaff or Music Note wins it? She could end up with nothing. Or what if she lost today and then lost again in the Distaff? So either way, I think the Distaff is the race they are going to go in. The time to try the boys was earlier. At this point, with all they hope to accomplish, there's almost no reward for trying it while the Distaff would either be an easier attempt to protect a perfect record or a necessary race to protect any title hopes.
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