9/3: Saratoga ($209k C/O)

[Kasept]

Thoroughly and embarrassingly awful day Wednesday as I barely got anything right from Lake George to the Pacific. Day felt like it was spinning into oblivion early on when photo in the Spa 2nd between 9-1 top choice Triple Glory and Most Likely Big Flirt (7-2) went the wrong way. Having made a large (for me) win bet on the runner-up, I would have been smart to back off from there, as the day only got worse from that point.

I left Pletcher 5th race winner Bonavento off the P4 play to miss the $155 quad tote; Didn't bet old favorite Success Fee; Could not get Best Value Sly Storm up in the feature and finally missed another $30 Paulino Ortiz winner in the nightcap... But the humiliation was just starting, because Del Mar began at 6:30, and beat me like a rented mule for the next 2.5 hours.

Luckily, there is a $209k carryover at Saratoga to attack. Hope you bet better than I did yesterday, or avoided my opinion completely.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES (12:44pm)


1st: Paul Fout, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (Hurdles) (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynaski 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Terpsichorean 5-1 WON ($22.00)
Next Best: #6 Lead Us Not 6-1
Super Add: #3 Arcadius 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-1) $19.40
$1 Trifecta (4-1-3) $64.00


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Water of Life 5-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Speckled Bird 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #6 Isn't She Grand 12-1 6th
Super Add: #5 She Wears the Best 5-1 5th


3rd: P.G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 TAPITSFLY 6-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #9 Smart Seattle 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Lisa's Kitten 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Write When Ready 10-1 7th

$1 Pick 3 (4-2-3) 3 Correct Paid $120.00


4th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Very competitive Gr. III stakes level set.. Looking for prices..

Best Value: #6 True Resurgence 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Dr. Pleasure 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Giant Chieftan 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Famous Patriot 8-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Will give Toner-Flay stakes runner benefit of doubt, but am not sure others that have started are much good at all.. And note that if top choices in 2nd race flop, it casts further doubt on quality of #2, #5 and #6 here..

Most Likely: #9 Stormandaprayer 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Strike It Rich 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Ennis Lady 6-1 8th
Super Add: #7 SCR


P4 Play:

2: 2-3-6
3: 3
4: ALL
5: 1-7-9-10

3x1x7x4 = $84


6th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Note: Suggest you include #10 Follow My Dream (30-1) on bottom of trifecta and super plays.. She is an ideal candidate to juice exotics..

Best Value: #4 Cagey Girl 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #3 Merriweather Jessica 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Kiawah Cat 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Forest Trail 6-1 5th

10 SUPER: 3-4 with 3-4-5-6 with 3-4-5-6-8-10 with ALL (2x3x4x7 = 168 x .10 = $16.80)


7th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Totally impossible, wide open mess..

Most Likely: #10 Raise the Kitty 5-2 6th
Best Value: #8 Christmas Trip 8-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Simmy 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Crossfirehurricane 15-1 WON ($86.00)


8th: Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Absolutely terrific little stake where the ML faves don't 'have to win'..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Catalyst 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Perfect for You 20-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Bluegrass Princess 3-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Missunitednations 20-1 6th


9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 West Ocean 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Out Post 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 True Zip 15-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Southern Dynasty 6-1 4th


10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #3 My Dear Annie 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #9 Platinumplus 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Possessive 4-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Kevazinga 8-1 3rd


$200 P6 Play:

5: 9-10
6: 3-4-5-6
7: 8-9-10
8: 1
9: 2-6
10: 3-9

2x4x3x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192



<$75 P4 Play:

7: 8-9-10
8: 1-2-5-8
9: 2-4-6
10: 3-9

3x4x3x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[VOL JACK]

I feel your pain SB, Ive made big win bets on value horses and then didnt play exactas with the likely winners and missed some big tickets.

Perfect example for me is the Jane Cibelli running today; Cherry on the Top.
I bet her to win in her spa debut at 23.80-1 and didnt protect with the Rice favorite in a turf sprint.
Exacta paid over 100 and she paid 18 to place...felt like the biggest idiot of all time. Sometimes with a longshot, the worst thing you can do is ONLY make a Win bet. Best of Racing Luck the rest of the meet!

[ateamstupid]

This is one of those annoying Pick 6 sequences where I feel like I can narrow down every field to 2-3 horses, but don't have any confident singles. The closest would be Platinumplus, but there's no speed in that race and I hate singling in races w/completely mysterious pace scenarios.

GL everyone.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ive got a fn headache..gl

[fantini33]

I will be singling Cagey Girl and Miss Catalyst. Cagey Girl is a fre$ak%n trooper.

[Kasept]

Well that gives a 'jump start' to the day... Heh, heh.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Well that gives a 'jump start' to the day... Heh, heh.

O.M.G. Make it stop...

Good exacta to start the day. Let's get some rolling pick 3's going boys.

[GPK]

Race 2
Pick 3
2,6/2,6,8,9/1,5,6

Race 2 pick 3
1,2,5/3,5,9/2,5,6
$27

[hockey2315]

I love Tapitsfly too.

The 6 was bet down to 7/2. I mean really...it's Gary Contessa.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I love Tapitsfly too.

2-1 wooohooo

Singling in PK3s still.

[GPK]

Race 3
Pick 3

Smaller ticket and gonna take a stand against Tapitsfly and Stormandaprayer.

6,9/1,5/5,6

[GPK]

Blah

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Well that gives a 'jump start' to the day... Heh, heh.

Tapits fly in all CAPS one time!!

Looking for a True Resurgence.


LOL. LMAO.

[hockey2315]

Hope you're right, Coach.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Tapits fly in all CAPS one time!!

"If I tell you it's Easter... start coloring eggs."

[GPK]

Getting deep in here...

Not a fan of this sequence, but I didn't come here today just to watch.

Race 4

1,5,6/5,6/3,5

[hockey2315]

Isn't the 7 scratched in R5?