8/13: Saratoga (Day 14; $52k C/O)

[Kasept]

Good day to start Week 3 had potential to be outstanding, and though I fell short of pointing things out clearly, it appears it was for many Derby Trail readers and ATR listeners as at least three readers/listeners hitting the $4,600 quad! For me, the prime bet of the day was the state bred Cab Calloway where Uncle T Seven looked like a grapefruit coming over the plate. The 5-2 John Morrison trainee combined with overlaid 'Best Value' Livin Large (11-1) and obvious include Scientist for a fat $230 tri ($2). Hope you did well (and know quite a few did)! Carryover of $52,000+ Thursday on a very slippery sequence.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Ben Nevis, 4+, 16.5f-Hurdles (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Dalucci 3-1
Next Best: #8 Dynaski 7-2
Best Value: #3 Arcadius 6-1
Super Add: #9 Swagger Stick 5-1


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR #2b Proud Zoe who won Monday..

Best Value: #7 Speckledbird 6-1
Most Likely: #4 Cableknit 2-1
Next Best: #5 Capital Adequacy 8-1
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Limeheart 10-1


3rd: OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Vindication 7-2
Next Best: #2 Just Ben 2-1
Exotics Use: #1e Clay entry 5-2


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Triple Glory 10-1
Most Likely: #6 Telemachus 3-1
Next Best: #3 All West 5-2
Super Add: #4 Napkins 5-1


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Counterspy 5-2
Next Best: #5 Master 3-1
Best Value: #1 Dontquityourdayjob 8-1
Super Add: #6 Interrogatory 6-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-7
3: 1-2-5
4: 3-4-6-8
5: 1-4-5

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Quick to Charm 7-2
Best Value: #5 Bullara 10-1
Next Best: #3 Angliana 3-1
Super Add: #10 Vettriano 5-1


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Hatheer 3-1
Best Value: #6 More Amour 8-1
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 4-1


8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Choragus 5-2
Next Best: #6 Turn Away 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tar Heel Mom 7-2


9th: NY Stallion-Statue of Liberty, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Wild Awake 5-2
Next Best: #7 Mother Russia 3-1
Best Value: #2 Es Mia 10-1
Super Add: #8 Sezzana 4-1


10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Collar 6-1
Most Likely: #9 Catty Madeline 5-1
Next Best: #2 Hangingonaprayer 3-1
Super Add: #7 My Anna Rose 8-1


$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-5
6: 2-3-5-10
7: 8
8: 2-6
9: 4-7
10: 8-9

3x4x1x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 1-2-5-6
9: 2-4-7
10: 2-8-9

2x4x3x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Holland Hacker]

Steve,

Thanks once again for all of your hard work. I have a silly question for you regarding your picks. Why is it that you chage the order of your picks? By that I mean in some races you list you ML - BV - NB - EU / SA and in others you list your BV - ML - NB - EU / SA.

Also is there a difference between your classification of Exotics Use and Super Add?

Hoefully I'll see you later today. Heading up to Saratoga for the weekend!

Bill

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

Steve,

Thanks once again for all of your hard work. I have a silly question for you regarding your picks. Why is it that you chage the order of your picks? By that I mean in some races you list you ML - BV - NB - EU / SA and in others you list your BV - ML - NB - EU / SA.

Also is there a difference between your classification of Exotics Use and Super Add?

Hoefully I'll see you later today. Heading up to Saratoga for the weekend!

Bill

The order of selection amounts to the 1-2-3-4 preference... A 12-1 'Best Value' isn't the most likely winner in the truest sense. I'm suggesting in those cases that at the likely tote, a Best Value type is a better bet than the lower priced favorite(s).

Conversely, there are times were the top 2 ML favorites or first and third choices, etc., are simply better horses than the best value player available... Hence, a Most Likely, Next Best, Best Value order...

The moniker of Exotics or Super (4th horse) is strictly determined by whether or not a Super is available in the race. A 10 horse field with entries where a Super isn't available frequently demands a Most Likely and/or Best Value be played with at least 2-3 others for exactas/tris/supers.

See you over there!

[andrasi]

Thanks for the#2 in nightcap Steve, bet a few on the nose. Thru arms up in disgust after my mess up in pic4 sequence. Salvaged day because of it. jer

[lemoncrush]

Making the late PK 4 my only mid-week play this week. Been looking over the PPs the past few days. I may end up using Ticketmaker on DRF to break this ticket down to smaller tickets, as it's a pretty competitive 4 races.

Pre-scratches Selections

Race 7 Shadwell firster Hatheer looks ready to face maiden group, most which look to want much more ground than 5-1/2 F. Main rival could be More than Ready filly Ready to Party, as trainer excells at turf sprints.
8 - Hatheer (3-1)
9 - Crimson Glory (7-2) SCR
2 - Ready to Party (8-1)
3 - Smart Seattle (10-1)

Race 8 Frankel filly has distinct class edge on these, but 6F may be too short against this group. Alan Garcia has been aboard all 3 career wins for Tar Heel Mom, and returns to ride her today
6 - Turn Away (2-1)
2 - Choragus (5-2)
5 - Tar Heel Mom (7-2)

Race 9 Tagg filly Wild Awake should be able to handle this group after 4 straight 2nd place finishes.
4 - Wild Awake (5-2)
8 - Sezzana (4-1)
7 - Mother Russia (3-1)
2 - E's Mia (10-1)

Race 10 Lots of question marks, lots of pace, and a very vulernable M/L favorite in Hangingonaprayer. Lots to like on Catty Madeline and J. Leparoux. World Gone Wrong could offer great value with a hot rider jumping on.
9 - Catty Madeline (5-1) Best bet
4 - World Gone Wrong (6-1)
2 - Hanging on a Prayer (3-1)
7 - My Anna Rose (8-1)
12 - Linsalata (7-2)

Pick 4 (post scratches)
7 - 2,8
8 - 5,6
9 - 4,7,8
10 - 2,4,6,9

$48 for $1

[randallscott35]

I remember maybe in 99 or 2000 or something, one of the handicapping shows up there said all they do in the jump races in box the 3 longest shots in the exacta and they hit it a bunch of times. Was funny but I still think about that when watching these races.

[Arletta]

Saw Cableknit just scratched at the gate (1/2 sis to Speightstown) 1.7 million $$ yearling.

I believe she flipped.. hope she is alright and runs back soon.

[Sightseek]

Linda Rice is unstoppable!

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Linda Rice is unstoppable!

is it fair game to ask what she is doing differently up north? i mean if this was dutrow or pletcher or chad brown this place would be jumping with all kinds of assumptions and questions as to what these guys are up to

she is 42 % so far at this meet accoridng to the nyra website - heck even tiger woods ain't 42 % in his starts

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by gales0678

is it fair game to ask what she is doing differently up north? i mean if this was dutrow or pletcher or chad brown this place would be jumping with all kinds of assumptions and questions as to what these guys are up to

she is 42 % so far at this meet accoridng to the nyra website - heck even tiger woods ain't 42 % in his starts

This is true, but the main thing is I don't see any of her horses making large jumps in form which I think is the bigger question surrounding certain trainers.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by gales0678

i mean if this was dutrow or pletcher or chad brown this place would be jumping with all kinds of assumptions and questions as to what these guys are up to

or Marty Wolfson
valid pt Gales.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This is true, but the main thing is I don't see any of her horses making large jumps in form which I think is the bigger question surrounding certain trainers.

she was just under 20% at the recent belmont meet , she had a total of 11 winners the entire spring meet at belmont - 3 + month meet , now she has 9 winners in less the 3 weeks up here at the spa .....come on if this was pletcher or dutrow or c brown almost matching their win total in less than 3 weeks vs an entire meet at belmont this place would be full of chatter....

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Making the late PK 4 my only mid-week play this week. Been looking over the PPs the past few days. I may end up using Ticketmaker on DRF to break this ticket down to smaller tickets, as it's a pretty competitive 4 races.

Pre-scratches Selections

Race 7 Shadwell firster Hatheer looks ready to face maiden group, most which look to want much more ground than 5-1/2 F. Main rival could be More than Ready filly Ready to Party, as trainer excells at turf sprints.
8 - Hatheer (3-1)
9 - Crimson Glory (7-2) SCR
2 - Ready to Party (8-1)
3 - Smart Seattle (10-1)

Race 8 Frankel filly has distinct class edge on these, but 6F may be too short against this group. Alan Garcia has been aboard all 3 career wins for Tar Heel Mom, and returns to ride her today
6 - Turn Away (2-1)
2 - Choragus (5-2)
5 - Tar Heel Mom (7-2)

Race 9 Tagg filly Wild Awake should be able to handle this group after 4 straight 2nd place finishes.
4 - Wild Awake (5-2)
8 - Sezzana (4-1)
7 - Mother Russia (3-1)
2 - E's Mia (10-1)

Race 10 Lots of question marks, lots of pace, and a very vulernable M/L favorite in Hangingonaprayer. Lots to like on Catty Madeline and J. Leparoux. World Gone Wrong could offer great value with a hot rider jumping on.
9 - Catty Madeline (5-1) Best bet
4 - World Gone Wrong (6-1)
2 - Hanging on a Prayer (3-1)
7 - My Anna Rose (8-1)
12 - Linsalata (7-2)

Pick 4 (post scratches)
7 - 2,8
8 - 5,6
9 - 4,7,8
10 - 2,4,6,9

$48 for $1

Once the Wesly Ward Ghostzapper filly scratched from the 7th, I obviously should have moved my 4th selection (Smart Seattle) onto the ticket. Being too gun shy with not playing enough Saragota so far, cost me the $800+ pick 4 today.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by gales0678

she was just under 20% at the recent belmont meet , she had a total of 11 winners the entire spring meet at belmont - 3 + month meet , now she has 9 winners in less the 3 weeks up here at the spa .....come on if this was pletcher or dutrow or c brown almost matching their win total in less than 3 weeks vs an entire meet at belmont this place would be full of chatter....

Look at her winners:

Ahvee's Destiny - Got loose in a turf sprint and was a stakes winner over the Mellon turf before. (7/2)

Awakino Cat - Exited two decent turf sprints at Monmouth and benefited from a perfect trip. (9-1)

Gentle Ride - Got loose in a very weak maiden claimer dropping from MSW races. (2-1)

Good Prospect - Received a perfect trip coming off a win against comparable company. (7-1)

Fort McCoy - Exited a rough trip 5th at Belmont and had things go his way. (7-1)

Tahoe Warrior - Coming back on short rest off a poor effort sprinting he also got a perfect trip going long and benefited when the favorite received an uncharacteristically bad ride from Ramon Dominguez. (10-1)

Karakorum Legend - Capitalized on a lone E trip against a suspect field as the chalk. (5/2)

Willsboro Point - Received a cushy pace-setting trip against a bad field (5/2).

Mother Russia - Another wire-to-wire winner against a horrible field (2-1).

The common thread among these winners is that they were all relatively short prices and most benefited from great trips pace-wise. I really think she's getting the most out of her horses right now and things will definitely even out soon.

She had 11 winners at Saratoga in 2007 including a 6-10 run during closing week, so it's not like this is unprecedented.

NT

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Look at her winners:

Ahvee's Destiny - Got loose in a turf sprint and was a stakes winner over the Mellon turf before. (7/2)

Awakino Cat - Exited two decent turf sprints at Monmouth and benefited from a perfect trip. (9-1)

Gentle Ride - Got loose in a very weak maiden claimer dropping from MSW races. (2-1)

Good Prospect - Received a perfect trip coming off a win against comparable company. (7-1)

Fort McCoy - Exited a rough trip 5th at Belmont and had things go his way. (7-1)

Tahoe Warrior - Coming back on short rest off a poor effort sprinting he also got a perfect trip going long and benefited when the favorite received an uncharacteristically bad ride from Ramon Dominguez. (10-1)

Karakorum Legend - Capitalized on a lone E trip against a suspect field as the chalk. (5/2)

Willsboro Point - Received a cushy pace-setting trip against a bad field (5/2).

Mother Russia - Another wire-to-wire winner against a horrible field (2-1).

The common thread among these winners is that they were all relatively short prices and most benefited from great trips pace-wise. I really think she's getting the most out of her horses right now and things will definitely even out soon.

She had 11 winners at Saratoga in 2007 including a 6-10 run during closing week, so it's not like this is unprecedented.

NT

so she wins 11 races in a 3 month meet and now has 9 winners in less than 3 weeks ....am i to believe if pletcher or dutrow did this miraculous feat and almost matched their spring belmont meet winners in less than 3 weeks that there wouldn't be an artice in the drf about what is going on here .... you can talk about all the perfect trips you want , i am to beleive that that her horses faced stronger fields and had bad trips at belmont and are now facing weaker fields and getting good trips in every race???

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by gales0678

so she wins 11 races in a 3 month meet and now has 9 winners in less than 3 weeks ....am i to believe if pletcher or dutrow did this miraculous feat and almost matched their spring belmont meet winners in less than 3 weeks that there wouldn't be an artice in the drf about what is going on here .... you can talk about all the perfect trips you want , i am to beleive that that her horses faced stronger fields and had bad trips at belmont and are now facing weaker fields and getting good trips in every race???

Why does it have to be so black and white? Why can't you read into the intricacies of each one of these wins and realize that plenty of things have gone right to allow this to happen?

How about this for odd, she has only had 11 horses finish in the money. She's just getting all the breaks right now.

When was the last time there was an article in the DRF about Pletcher or Dutrow doing anything improper anyway? Pletcher has had weeks on end that were as successful as Rice's run so far and the only thing it's been is Todd being Todd.

She is placing her horses well, they're on the turf just about every day (something that's essential for her success), and she's getting good breaks.

If you prefer the "she's winning a lot so she has to be cheating" line then have at it. At least suggest that she drop off some of whatever she's using at Rusty Arnold, Kenny McPeek, and Bruce Levine's barns.

NT

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Why does it have to be so black and white? Why can't you read into the intricacies of each one of these wins and realize that plenty of things have gone right to allow this to happen?

How about this for odd, she has only had 11 horses finish in the money. She's just getting all the breaks right now.

When was the last time there was an article in the DRF about Pletcher or Dutrow doing anything improper anyway? Pletcher has had weeks on end that were as successful as Rice's run so far and the only thing it's been is Todd being Todd.

She is placing her horses well, they're on the turf just about every day (something that's essential for her success), and she's getting good breaks.

If you prefer the "she's winning a lot so she has to be cheating" line then have at it. At least suggest that she drop off some of whatever she's using at Rusty Arnold, Kenny McPeek, and Bruce Levine's barns.

NT

certainly TOFP winning at GP you remember created a firestorm at DRF from none other than Andy Beyer ....

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Once the Wesly Ward Ghostzapper filly scratched from the 7th, I obviously should have moved my 4th selection (Smart Seattle) onto the ticket. Being too gun shy with not playing enough Saragota so far, cost me the $800+ pick 4 today.

Lost in the discussion of the reason why Linda Rice is doing so well at Saratoga is your near miss of the Pick 4. I enjoyed comparing your picks to my own and reading your explanations. I hope you continue to post your picks. I incorporated your picks on my own tickets and likewise missed out on the $805 payoff because I got "cute" by playing multiple tickets rather than just one. Oh well, there's always tomorrow (or next time)....

[Gander]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Why does it have to be so black and white? Why can't you read into the intricacies of each one of these wins and realize that plenty of things have gone right to allow this to happen?

How about this for odd, she has only had 11 horses finish in the money. She's just getting all the breaks right now.

When was the last time there was an article in the DRF about Pletcher or Dutrow doing anything improper anyway? Pletcher has had weeks on end that were as successful as Rice's run so far and the only thing it's been is Todd being Todd.

She is placing her horses well, they're on the turf just about every day (something that's essential for her success), and she's getting good breaks.

If you prefer the "she's winning a lot so she has to be cheating" line then have at it. At least suggest that she drop off some of whatever she's using at Rusty Arnold, Kenny McPeek, and Bruce Levine's barns.

NT

That only applies to guys like Dutrow and Levine. Linda Rice is the Saratoga darling, one must never accuse the woman in black of cheating. If she wins this many, its legit. But Dutrow and Levine tear a meet apart and the book is thrown at them...guilty until proven innocent. The Saratoga darling is getting it done the clean way. Shes got live horses this meet.

Shame on you Gales.