5/30: BEL; CD (Stakes; P4's)

[Kasept]

Had the right structure at Belmont Friday to be in position to score going 3x1x6x4, but "chalked out" in the second half to basically get refunded $80.50 on the $72 investment. Given the scratches from the off the turf affairs, probably would have been wise to pare down the play or press the likeliest scenario, but I freely admit to being intimidated by the 6 horse feature won by Frankel's 'obvious' 4-5 horse. She looked vulnerable to me on the comeback, with at least three of the other five seemingly as fast. No matter... Plenty of fun racing Saturday with P4's at NY & KY featuring quality stakes. Hope you did well Friday.

Want to 'run' this P4 chat from Friday again today since I didn't post it until very late Friday morning at the ATR website and not at all on the front page of Derby Trail.

Being in position to benefit from an upset worked in my favor Thursday when #12 (AE draw-in) Becky's Exchange made her turf debut a winner at 21-1. The big price tripped $1,247 worth of P4 action on the $72 play thanks to the dead heat in the opening leg. Whether the winner was overlooked due to her main track form or being Also Eligible, as a daughter of Exchange Rate, whose progeny win 15% of their grass bows, she had every right to improve against an ordinary field.

As mentioned above, just getting in position to hit a lucrative P4 like Thursday's is half the battle, and you cannot find the big payoffs without overlay horses on your tickets. Juxtapose Thursday versus two recent examples: May 23, when Joey's Chance (my Super Add choice) was left off the ticket and a $1,600 score was missed, and May 25 when Manitowish Waters (Live to $170 payoff) held off Hint (Live to $1,700 payoff). Thursday's payday was realized because you included an outsider that was a possible winner on breeding versus a suspect group.

Similarly on Monday, Hint was a horse that had a legitimate win chance and came agonizing close. He could have won and delivered the big return, just as even money Warm Springs Girl could have beaten Beck's Exchange Thursday and quashed the P4 down to $100. Remember that the reason you are playing a multi-race sequence is to specifically find horses like Joey's Chance (14-1), Hint (13-1) and Becky's Exchange (21-1) because their presence in a P4 or P3 are instrumental in the bonanza overpays in the skiens.


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: NYB-MSW, 3+. 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 SCR
Best Value: #8 William Thomas 5-1: Showed speed in fall bow; Working hot.. WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #1 Personal Shopper 7-2: Money burner adds blinks.. 4th
Super Add: #9 Livin Large 4-1: Got bet in problematic first start.. 3rd


8th: The McKayMacKenna, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very curious listed stake with potential red herrings everywhere you look... Question soundness of #2 La Hernanda who was DQ'd at Tampa last when 'boring out badly' and has barely worked since. Mott 4yo (#6 Scolara) owns 'class edge', but has won once in last 8 starts, and in FL restricted company to boot... I may be all wet, but I'm looking elsewhere in-race and spreading in the multis...

Best Value: #1 Stormy Relations 15-1: Likes cut in turf; Saves ground; Race 2 back can win this.. 7th
Most Likely: #8 Pastel Gal 4-1: 5yo Tagg mare needs a pace to chase.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Missvinski 15-1: Note that Mott has had time with her now.. 9th
Super Add: #5 With Flying Colors 12-1: My Flag daughter finally on the improve.. 8th


9th: Sands Point (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD,)

Note that Angel Penna is in the midst of a remarkable season and sends a $700k Dynaformer (#3 Warm Shower, 15-1) who looks like she doesn't belong. Point being, if Penna is running her, she probably belongs... 2nd

Most Likely: #4 Gozzip Girl 9-5: Gives 4# while looking simply better than these.. WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #7 Magical Affair 2-1: Matz miss new gal on grass; Needs pace target.. 4th
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Princess 4-1: Close to choice at Hallandale; Front end threat.. 3rd


10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Wide open..

Most Likely: #1e Clement entry 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Leoroel 20-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Spanish Art 7-2 7th
Super Add: #4 Boots Ahead 15-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

Best way to approach this set appears to be hoping Gozzip Girl is reliable in the feature..

7: 8-10
8: 1-2-3-5-6-8
9: 4
10: 1-3-4-6-7-10

2x6x1x6 = $72



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


8th: 35th Dogwood (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Luster 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Affirmed Truth 8-1 DNF
Next Best: #2 Hightap 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #9 Lady's Laughter 7-2


9th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Keertana 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #9 Kiss Mine 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Satin Thunder 5-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Cat Onthe Town 12-1 8th


10th: 21st Aristides (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Bold Start 9-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #3 Vicarian 6-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Premium Wine 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Early Return 15-1 10th


11th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Do Drop In 4-1
Best Value: #2 Doctor Hall 12-1
Next Best: #11 Lemon Drop Magic 9-2
Exotics Use: #5 Bk's Clearanceisle 10-1
High 5 Play: #8 Almighty Adversary 30-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-5
9: 2-9
10: 1-3-4-5-6-7-9-11
11: 2-7-11

3x2x8x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve