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#1
03-23-2009, 08:32 AM
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California two best 3yo's dirt projections...
Do they regress, hold form, or move-up on real dirt? My analysis.
* Pioneer of the Nile: The case for him handling dirt is pretty simple and straightforward. His sire Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes. His dam Star of Goshen was a freaky sophomore in '97.  Since Beyer figures have been published in the form - there have been 17 runnings of the KY Oaks and the avg winning figure is 99. Star of Goshen ran a figure faster than Oaks winning par when she won her lifetime debut. She came to Churchill on Derby week .. and obliterated a strong field by 11 lengths in the La Troienne. The crushed 2nd place finisher was Pearl City - who won the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at the same distance later in the year. The 4th place finisher was Ajina - who won the Breeders Cup Distaff later in the year and was named champion 3yo filly over Sharp Cat. Love That Jazz - who later beat males in a 6 furlong Graded Stake was part of that La Troienne pace as well. Star of Goshen was beaten bad as a 1/20 favorite in her next start, and was eased in her 5th and final start and retired. She might have been by great turf sire Lord At War .. but she loved dirt. Pioneer of the Nile is a half sib to Forefathers. Forefathers started his career on turf in Europe - was a bad 7th - and was sent to America. He was certainly a better horse on dirt than either turf or synthetic - surfaces he tried on multiple occasions. Pioneer of the Nile might have debuted on turf - but so did two of the last 3 Ky Derby winners in Big Brown and Barbaro. The case against POTN handling dirt is the fact that he debuted on turf when with Bill Mott. By Empire Maker out of a Lord At War mare - those are two very good turf names. Since synthetic track races are often run like bad, boring, unexciting turf races... a horse who is bred to simply hate turf like I Want Revenge is ... that's the type of horse you want going syn-to-dirt. POTN's off the pace running style is not nearly as dirt track friendly either. * The Pampelmoussee Sired by Kafwain - who ran a mind-boggling 115 Beyer in the San Vincente going 7fs in Feb of his 3yo season while dusting a future Big Cap winner in Southern Image. Like Star of Goshen - he had a big background from the 2yo sales, he was brilliant when right, but seemed to have real issues. Kafwain's a young stallion so the samples aren't big - but his offspring win at just 5% (3-for-55) on turf - 12% (16-for-139) on synthetic tracks - and 20% (80-for-405) on dirt. When you consider The Pampelmoussee is 3-for-5 lifetime on synthetic ... the rest of Kafwain's offspring win at less than 10% on syn tracks. That's a very positive sign for The P's dirt prospects. The dam of The Pampelmoussee is Comfort Zone. She was a total speed sprinter for Neil Howard. She broke her maiden in June of her 2yo season dominating a 5.5f Churchill Downs maiden race wire-to-wire in the slop with a huge 97 Beyer. She won an allowance next out by 5 in the Churchill mud. She only ran twice more .. both times showing intense speed and stopping in sprints. The P's chances of moving up on dirt look pretty great because of his speedy running style and solid dirt/sloppy track pedigree. However, The P's speedy dam Comfort Zone is a half sibling to 0-for-10 career maiden Wilshewed. That's only important because Wilshewed is the dam of Stormello - who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity in his only lifetime start over a syn track. So there is some syn track breeding in the tail-female. What's important to remember about The P - is that while I believe he could at least hold form and probably move-up on dirt ... his pedigree is so strongly slanted in favor of speed on both sides .. that in a fast paced 10f race like the Derby .. I think there is a great chance he won't see out the distance. Still, he might look pretty strong going into the far turn in the Derby. He should make life very tough for all of the real nice horses this year that want to stalk a cozy pace - and The P might set the table for a setup closer. The problem is that the closers this year all seem to have moderate talent. 
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#2
03-23-2009, 09:05 AM
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nice post.
I learned something about Pioneerof the Nile from your post. before I even look at surface: DISTANCE?: Pamplemousse is so abjectly distance challenged that he shouldn't even be entered into the KD. His stamina index shows him to be about a miler at most, and his sire is Kafwain. Eliminated. Pioneerof the Nile is more geared towards being a miler, but his pedigree doesn't eliminate him. TALENT?: PtN has pretty good talent. He usually shows a good response and has a quick turn of foot. Fairly game. His last prep was really dull, so all the focus will be on the final prep for flashing more recent talent. SURFACE?: PtN should be fine on dirt. The difference that comes in with the switch to dirt is that over that light-synthetic turf at Santa Anita, everybody that has about the talent to be training in around 48 or 49 for 4f on dirt, is working in 6 or 7 on that synth in 1:13 or 1:26... That's if they don't push the horse! All the 6Furlong sprinters are stretching to a mile in the afternoons as if it was expected. I could see an increase in distance affecting PtN a tiny bit more over a dirt surface. RUNNING STYLE?: I think his off the pace style hurts him in the Derby, because with his pedigree stamina and talent being on the fence, it's going to be harder to close. He will flatten out and run 10th
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#3
03-23-2009, 10:38 AM
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Very Nice write up....
I don't think you can eliminate The Pamplemousse solely based on Pedigree ...prime example would be Smarty Jones...many people did not like him based on his pedigree and we all know what he did in the Derby
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#4
03-23-2009, 12:01 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised to see him off the board in his next race
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#5
03-23-2009, 12:04 PM
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__________________
Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma
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#8
03-23-2009, 03:12 PM
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#9
03-23-2009, 03:22 PM
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I just hate The Pamplemousse's stride and will not be using him. As for Pioneerof the Nile, it's not so much that he debuted on turf that's a red flag. Rather, it's that despite his NY connections, he wasn't entered in any of the east coast dirt stakes for two-year-olds. Not only that, he went straight from turf to synthetic, then shipped out west for more synthetic, where Zayat had previously made a big show of not running his horses, and stayed there. It's one thing to debut a horse on turf. It's another to run twice on turf, then go to synthetic, then ship across the country to continue running on synthetic when the rest of your stock is running here, on dirt.
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#11
03-23-2009, 04:18 PM
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#12
03-23-2009, 07:00 PM
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http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...s?dayEvening=D
he looks a bit more tired than I remembered, but not that bad...
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#13
03-23-2009, 07:17 PM
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#14
03-23-2009, 10:17 PM
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Your theory would have us believe that the horse wouldn't have won again after breaking his maiden -- and he's won TWICE since. He's just not in a hurry to come back or to run on beyond the wire.
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#15
03-24-2009, 02:06 PM
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I'll be back after The Santa Anita Derby for CHOCOLATE CANDY'S analysis
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#16
03-25-2009, 08:07 AM
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thats the problem with the poly, synthetic, pro-ride. one has to project (guess) if a horse will convert to dirt and it goes the other way too. its a joke and i don't see how its any safer either.
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#17
03-25-2009, 05:36 PM
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Hideous action on that horse. You would think he would have to be tired using that action to get around the track. Must have some huge lungs.
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#18
03-25-2009, 10:34 PM
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There's a plethora of youtube for The Pamplemousse including one cutting back and forth between him and PotN. I checked them out after Haskin mentioned it on his Derby dozen. The stride comparisons are pretty stark. I will say though, if you want to look at a horse and go 'oooh pretty' there are some nice shots of TP walking where his coat just looks like liquid silver.
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#19
03-26-2009, 12:09 AM
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P'MOO'S action doesn't look quite as bad in his races as it does in his works. I can't watch his works anymore(that's pee-u ugly.) Isn't gunna surprise me if this horse gets hurt before May, and it could happen in one of those works where he is just pounding the ground. He does something ugly in his races, but he does it pretty quickly. Even if you like him, I wouldn't trust him in a future bet. There are some things to like, but people should wait to see if he stays healthy. I wouldn't trust him to like Churchill dirt. POTN and Dunkirk are the class of this bunch. No, that doesn't mean they have to win the K Derby. It means they are gunna easily keep someone else from winning a Triple Crown. Sure, Dunkirk didn't beat anyone yet, but he and PTN are the ones who have looked like class. In other words, I have seen them fkn around playing games etc. I haven't seen them tired(acting foolishly, sure.)They can get beat because of their awkward habits etc., but if you think one of these two isn't gunna win a triple crown race, then you're gunna be mistaken. They are the class, and that's gunna eventually get in the way of the others(who really don't particularly want to go past 9f at all.) Sure, one of the others can run big in the K Derby, but eventually he's gunna be looking at one of these two beat him in one of the other legs. Even if Dunkirk flops Saturday, I still think he's a threat to win a later Triple Crown Race. Why the fck do you think Gomez just happens to be on these two? Huh? Duh...You think he isn't gunna win a Triple Crown race with one of these 2? You're wrong.
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#20
04-04-2009, 05:25 PM
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