Win Willy

[Thunder Gulch]

Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. I guess seeing Larry only worked his horse once in a month I can see him losing, but WW wouldn't have been my first pick...of course it makes a little sense looking back now.

[Travis Stone]

Old Fashioned was less than two lengths off the 22 3/5 quarter and a 46-flat half set by Silver City, who is a very talented sprinter. OF ran quite hard from start to finish and still finished eight lengths clear of everybody else. While it's nowhere near a Derby performance, OF wasn't a slouch by any stretch today. I'm thinking King's Bishop could up his wheelhouse (and Silver City's) by the time the Derby Trail dust settles.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Old Fashioned was less than two lengths off the 22 3/5 quarter and a 46-flat half set by Silver City, who is a very talented sprinter. OF ran quite hard from start to finish and still finished eight lengths clear of everybody else. While it's nowhere near a Derby performance, OF wasn't a slouch by any stretch today. I'm thinking King's Bishop could up his wheelhouse (and Silver City's) by the time the Derby Trail dust settles.

Yea, I agree with you about O.F. He is no slouch. Sort of reminds me of Smarty Jones with an even more impatient rider, and a little less stamina. Look, there simply seemed to be very little grey matter being used by his connections in this race. They made no effort whatsoever to rate off a horse going too fast. Compared to the horses in 1st n' 3rd on the backstretch, where did O.F. finish? Look where the winner is on the backstretch. They went too fast. 50-1 HORSES WIN TRAINWRECKS, and that's what this race was. He's lost one time, and it was (to me) due to overconfidence. They need to get him to relax more and/or try another rider that's more willing to save something for the 2nd half of the race. Has to also recover well from this race. I don't think he can be thrown out, but they don't seem to have a plan to get 10f. A track bias would appear to be mandatory.

[Thunder Gulch]

I would't throw Old Fashioned out just yet. He was obviously not cranked up for this with a light workload in the last month, and as discussed, those fractions he chased will take the starch out of most 3yo. Afleet Alex ran a poor Rebel (rumored sick) before Richey really got him dialed in for the remainder of the spring.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am missing something with the Old Fashioned/Afleet Alex analogy.

I think an Old Fashioned/Rockport Harbor analogy would be more fitting.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am missing something with the Old Fashioned/Afleet Alex analogy.

I think an Old Fashioned/Rockport Harbor analogy would be more fitting.

Both won the Southwest and lost the Rebel. What's so hard to understand about that? Not making any predictions about the future, just saying it's too early to toss a talented horse that clearly wasn't pointed to that spot.

[ArlJim78]

i had placed a conditional wager on him to win early in the day.
with losses mounting i canceled that wager in order to place some more losing bets. then he wins to add insult to injury.
it was not a fun day.

[pointman]

I thought Ramon's move was a bit premature especially considering the pace.

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. I guess seeing Larry only worked his horse once in a month I can see him losing, but WW wouldn't have been my first pick...of course it makes a little sense looking back now.

I had win bets on 5 others in there trying to beat Old Fashioned, but not WW! Right idea, just one bomb short! I couldn't have found that freakin horse had I been in the saddle!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Win Willy's dam was a solid D Wayne Lukas sprinter who once ran 2nd to Xtra Heat in a stake.

Nice win today coming from 16 lengths back after the opening quarter - and posted that nice win in good time.

However, there is some sadness to this story.

If anyone's not familar with his trainer ... he's 142-for-437 (32.5% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years. By comparison - the mystical Jamie Ness is just 97-for-389 (24.9% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Win Willy's dam was a solid D Wayne Lukas sprinter who once ran 2nd to Xtra Heat in a stake.

Nice win today coming from 16 lengths back after the opening quarter - and posted that nice win in good time.

However, there is some sadness to this story.

If anyone's not familar with his trainer ... he's 142-for-437 (32.5% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years. By comparison - the mystical Jamie Ness is just 97-for-389 (24.9% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years.

I am sure you have see how Ness's horse seemingly almost stop at the quarter pole now, it is amazing what happens when you can't rely on steriods and other insaneness and you actually have to train a little

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

2009? Are you sure? Maybe my perception was way off, but I have seen some of his horses at Tampa run absolutely horrible.

[Sightseek]

Didn't see it coming, but it was pretty exciting to see him make up soooo much ground.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

I think Pioneer of the Nile is a joke but I don't know how Friesan Fire is a pretender. Maybe he's Pyro II? At least he can run a fast race.

I know he got a perfect trip pace-wise and seems to have found a way to avoid any adversity at every turn, but I thought he ran well today.

Not as well as Rachel Alexandra though.

NT

[ArlJim78]

i'm pretty sure that Pioneer of Nothing won't be able to get past the SA derby without being fully exposed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Freisan Fire's speed, if nothing else, will be his undoing down the road. It's entirely possible that one day he may not get an absolutely perfect trip.

He's OK, though, and better than I have given him credit for being.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

I've liked FF awhile now and think he's been babied along this year so far.

He seems to me to be a pretty nice 3yo at this point, and I think he's just going to keep getting better for the time being.

That being said, who is it you like? I haven't seen you say anything positive about any of these three year olds yet.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That being said, who is it you like? I haven't seen you say anything positive about any of these three year olds yet.

I love stuff like this.