3/4: Aqueduct ($46k C/O)

[Kasept]

Enticing carryover of nearly $50k at the Big A Wednesday, with a sequence that starts and finishes with lowest level state-bred claiming maidens of 9 and 10 betting interests. In between those, pairs of ALW and CLM events are solid with 6, 7, 9 and 10 horse fields.

Also note the involvement of two NYRA 'Trips and Traps' runners in the sextet, Joe Parker's #4 Edashor (15-1) in the 6th and the perplexing #6 One in a Romp (7-2) from Bernardo Callejas in the 5th. As shown by Andy Serling and Eric Donavon on their weekly YouTube show, Edashor found plenty of traffic trouble in his last when the hot (!) Parker added blinkers. The rednut takes the goggles off, still will have Winston Thompson aboard, and needs to take a real jump forward to win. But he's not impossible.

One in a Romp looks like a turf mare only to me, and simply could be biding her time picking up small checks as Callejas counts the days to the lawn. Note that Spruce Pond refuses to drop her in for a tag. ML third choice can win with the right pace set-up in front of her, but is hard to count on given the fact a "1" has fallen off her PP.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Roaring Spouse 2-1: Totes 1/62 bullet for 2nd off break.. 3rd
Next Best: #1e Rice entry 9-5: 2 for 1 from Rice includes OK working firster..WON/9th
Best Value: #4 Soonasigetpaid 6-1: With Ryerson now; Decent a.m. moves.. 5th
Exotics Use: #2 My Brother John 15-1: Opens with 'L' & DBL bug; Sire 0/102-FTS.. 7th


5th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Twistaway 5-2: Tactical and will sit nice stalk trip under Ramon.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Hailey Keen 4-1: Gumpster mare controls this up front.. 4th
Next Best: #6 One in a Romp 7-2: As discussed, likely pace no help to her.. 5th


6th: NYB-CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Race is the lynchpin to the day given placement in P6 and as start of P4.. Features ALW droppers Head Heart Hoof (5-1 and a constant disappointment), Bitabaz (5-1) and Seeyouatsergios (7-2); "new horse" when wiring open claimers last J T Moore (9-2); 'dressed up' returnee Winning Grievance (3-1) from Asmussen who beat less than nothing in New Year's Day career debut; and Trips/Traps victim Edashor..

Most Likely: #3 J T Moore 9-2: Gumption in 2/16 win; Outside pressure (#9) a concern.. 7th
Best Value: #7 Bitabaz 5-1: Beat real horses when good; right dropper on turnback.. WON
Next Best: #1 Head Hoof Heart 5-1: Benzel grey threat on best.. 5th
Super Add: #4 LATE SCR


7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 GIMMEAROUTINE 3-1: ML fave has all the right tools here.. WON
Best Value: #7 My Golden Opinion 8-1: Barker drops solid 5yo; Returns hood.. 6th
Next Best: #10 Twopunchestogo 7-2: Faltered late in ALW company last.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Cloud Nine 4-1: Duggan a frightening 3 of 5 off claim.. 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Southern Missle 5-2: Remaining entry part flies late.. 2nd
Best Value: #4 Palmer's Approach 5-1: OK Najran red from Zito cuts back.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Noble Sound 2-1: Stalking Vindy 4yo from Albertrani off 68 days.. WON


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Tough way to finish skien as top pair seem too obvious and are the kinds that get 'upset' in these low level muskrat rambles. Top Lass from capable Ferraro showed some raw talent at 64-1 in adventerous Valentines Day career debut which could be looked at as a slightly productive affair. To wit, winner of that 2/14 MCLM, Spa Princess, was 4th by 6 Sunday in a state bred ALW that saw Del Carroll-Pont Street heroine Intoxicatingbeauty hang a 67 Beyer. Charming Officer, 3rd ahead of Top Lass, came back to win 2/27 against state bred Special Weights earning a 54 BSF. Flies in the buttermilk from 2/14 race are Wise Pitch, who was a bad third as favorite in mind-numbingly slow affair Sunday (She's Got Thunder, 29 BSF), and the horse that finished 5th behind Top Lass was also a mediocre third versus a painfully slow bunch (Taxadame, 35 BSF). Your call, but if you can live with the 0-0-0 double bug boy, Top Lass is at least an alternative..

Best Value: #9 Top Lass 5-1: Raw debut showed promise; See note above.. 2nd
Most Likely: #8 Billy's Girl 2-1: Achingly close last three; Must finish.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Knot News 3-1: Versatile Contessa miss returns to Ramon.. WON
Super Add: #4 SCR

$1 Exacta (3-9) Paid $12.80
$1 Trifecta (3-9-8) Paid $27.50


<$300 P6 Play:

4: 1-7
5: 2-7
6: 1-3-[4/SCR]-7
7: 2
8: 1-4-5
9: 3-8-9

2x2x4x1x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288

$2 Pick 6 (1,8/1/7/2/5/3,4) Paid $47.00 (5OF6) x 2 = $94.00


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5-7-8
7: 2
8: 1-4-5
9: 3-4-8-9

6x1x3x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (7/2/5/3,4) Paid 332.50 x 2 = $665.00 (4OF4)


Good luck!
Steve

[pmacdaddy]

Thanks Steve.

Think Edashor is definitely worth a play, especially with the potential pace scenario.

As much as a don't like to play 0-20 Maidens, I will also look at Distinctive Doc in the finale. Had it rough outside on the inside speed favoring track 2/20 (route attempt as well). Cuts back here. I will try to get her involved if price is BIG.

GL!

[colt 45ss]

steve:
doesn't two punches to go scare the bejesus out of you in the 7th
backing up a little in class and dangerous speed?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by colt 45ss

steve:
doesn't two punches to go scare the bejesus out of you in the 7th
backing up a little in class and dangerous speed?

There are several in the 7th that have run recent races capable of winning here. Twopunches.. Vinman.. Opinion.. Cloud Nine.. Any of them can win this, and Twopunches could be very tough if allowed by Vinman to clear easily. But Gimmearoutine has quality tactical/stalking speed, figures to get an ideal ground-saving trip, and can even get under and stretch a loose leader into the turn if Ramon feels they are getting away. Dominguez a handy guy to have aboard for that style. Need to make a stand somewhere, and in this race you would be forced to use a bunch if you didn't believe in a particular scenario.

[colt 45ss]

thanks for sharing the logic
all the best

[Kasept]

AQU SCR'S

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

3RD: #6 Ace Rewards Early

4TH: #8 Inda Easter Parade Early

8TH: #1A (POE) Trophy Road Early


AQU CHG'S

2ND: 2 Hot Chile Soup +2

3RD: 4 Vortices +4

4TH: 1A Rocknrollsong +4

5TH: 3 Decorated Court +2

9TH: 5 Quad Queens +1

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by kasept

low level muskrat rambles

[thunderdan09]

Good morning fella's.

I have taken a week or so off and haven't had the chance to see if there has been a bias at Aqueduct lately.

Can you please let me know if there has been any type of speed or post bias?

Also, #1 - TOGA TIGER in the first race today ran a game second to OH SO IRISH last time out. Do you think she can get the jump on Dominguez aboard #3 - Spiritual Spirits?

Good luck with the PICK 6 today everyone

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Behooved, but I believe BTW has the trademark on 'muskrat ramble'...

[thunderdan09]

I am playing today, online.

I hit a pick 4 online last week and a couple decent exacta's. made $180 in my TwinSpires account, so I am hanging in there.

Give me a call if you like anything...

[mes5107]

Having a little fun today

1) $4 Win 8, $1 Ex 1,7,8 w/ 1,3,7,8, bet $13

$1 Double 1,7,8 w/ 1,3,7, bet $9

[mes5107]

2) $2 Win 7, $2 QuBx 1,3,7, bet $8

oh no.

[NTamm1215]

That was really ugly. I assumed NY had a rule like California that the race becomes a non-wagering event when less than half the field finishes.

NT

I watched the replay a few times. It looks like all the jockeys might be ok. I hope so.

[mes5107]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I watched the replay a few times. It looks like all the jockeys might be ok. I hope so.

I hope you're right. Quite scary to see one after another go down like that.

If all of them make it out ok you can expect this will be part of the new intro for the hit "reality" show jockeys.

[Kasept]

Castro off his mount here..

Originally Posted by Kasept

Castro off his mount here..

He was the first one down and did get up briefly to get out of the way.

[mes5107]

How about Dominguez? He looked like he hit pretty hard and didn't move too much after.