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#1
01-14-2009, 06:47 AM
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1/14: Aqueduct; Gulfstream (P4's)
AQUEDUCT
POST-SCRATCHES 6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2b (POE) Big Bonnie 5-2 2nd Next Best: #1a (POE) Knot News 9-2 6th Best Value: #6 A. P. Light 12-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 Way to Karakorum 7-2 WON 7th: NYB-MSW, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Personal Shopper 7-2 7th Most Likely: #2 Mahopac 3-1 WON Next Best: #3 Buffalo Tsunami 5-2 2nd Super Add: #1 Roma Di Notte 5-1 4th 8th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 6f (DD) Most Likely: #6 She's My Fortune 2-1 5th Best Value: #4 Mocha Shake 8-1 7th Next Best: #3 Faithful One 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #5 Kiss and Fly 5-1 WON 9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super) Kamboo Man is a textbook candidate for regression after an intense effort 12/26.. Most Likely: #1 Jacobson entry 5-1 7th Best Value: #11 Ifonlyjohnny 10-1 9th Next Best: #2b Cielo Song 6-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Freddy the Cap 30-1 8th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-2-6 7: 7 8: 2-3-4-5-6 9: 1-2-3-5-11 3x1x5x5 = $75 GULFSTREAM POST-SCRATCHES 6th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Interesting MDN affair with some potentialy nice horses.. Note #12 Berry Berry Bueno from slick Andrade is a half to MSW Chatahoochee War. May need one, but could be a sleeper here at certain bulbous tote.. Best Value: #3 Strategic Decision 10-1: Son of Beautiful Pleasure; Ward "+" 2nd out; 9th Most Likely: #10 Stomp 5-2: 1st start at 3; Terranova has barn running.. 2nd Next Best: #11 Higher Peace 10-1: White can have firsters ready.. 7th Super Add: #4 Stay Focused 20-1: Obscure team has lit board 2nd out before.. 10th 7th: MSW, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Empirior 7-2: EmpMaker fastest if OK with lawn.. 7th Best Value: #6 Curragh 12-1: Crazy hot connections add eyewear.. 12th Next Best: #12 Olympus 10-1: Phipps colt needs trip under Bravo.. 11th Super Add: #1 Shoteka 6-1 4th 8th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 1m (DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Dream Maestro 6-1 2nd Most Likely: #10 Forest Command 5-2 WON Next Best: #2 Golden Age 12-1 5th Super Add: #1 Z Humor 3-1 4th 9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super) Very deep and difficult nightcap with lightly-raced 3yo's receiving a variety of karma treatments.. Best Value: #4 Glaslyn 12-1 6th Most Likely: #10 Triqueta 3-1 4th Next Best: #7 Stacie's Smile 4-1 8th Super Add: #3 Proven Right 6-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 3-10 7: 1-3-6-12 8: 2-7-10 9: 4-7-10 2x4x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 01-15-2009 at 06:50 AM. 
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#2
01-14-2009, 10:00 AM
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couple of plays
At Gulfstream
3rd race #5 Hit A Homer 6-1 8th #10 Forest Command 5-2 Santa Anita 3rd #5 Aston Girl 5-1 Last edited by ironprospect : 01-14-2009 at 10:43 AM.
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#3
01-14-2009, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Think you meant the 8th unless Ward shipped him to Chile
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“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#4
01-14-2009, 10:19 AM
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Quote:
steve - how about in the 6th - Kent D riding for "Dead Hennig" on the #9 does this one have any appeal?
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#5
01-14-2009, 10:29 AM
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AQU P4 SCR'S
6th 7 Shot Gun Gal Early 9 1A Smokin Warrior Early 2 (poe) R Fast Favorite Early 4 Hedge Fund Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
01-14-2009, 10:36 AM
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GP P4 SCR'S
Race 6: Scratch #6 Race 7: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16 (#4 Gelding) Race 8: Scratch 1A-POE #3 #9 Race 9: Scratch #13 #14 #15 #16 (#9 Blinkers On)
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
01-14-2009, 10:44 AM
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chili sounds good
thank you for the heads up
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#8
01-14-2009, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
G/L today.. Fun event and overall good races in both these P4's..
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
01-14-2009, 11:06 AM
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Analysis from blog
Aqueduct – Wednesday – January 14th, 2008
Race 1 – CLM30000B – 1 Mile 70 yds (Inner Track) #2 – Ballado Alert (Morales/Volk) – Up in class, early speed. 4/11 ITM lifetime, 0/5 over the inner track. The trainers statistics bold well for this horse, but I think a win is unlikely with the lack of success over this course. Especially, stepping up in class. EXOTICS ONLY. #3 – Lonely Highway (Migliore/Levine) Back to the claiming ranks after a trip to stakes company. Originally, a California circuit specialist was shipped up here after showing slight speed at Fairplex. Long distance specialist, but has a win at this level. DANGEROUS. #4 – Will Never Bend (Espinoza/Kelly) Class jumper 2nd off the layoff, but has won over the track at a much higher level. The main issue is the lack of success at this distance. CAN’T USE ON TOP (3RD OR 4TH) #5 – Ecru Egret (Morales/Persuad) Moves up in class slightly and will run from off the pace. No wins at Aqueduct and No wins at the distance. Seems to be more of a turf horse with 25 career starts on the lawn. CAN’T SEE IT #1 – Midnight Slammer (Luzzi/Galluscio) Drop in class, Luzzi stays. Has one win over the track and tries this distance for the first time. Can’t dismiss because of the lack of success of other horses on this surface. If he can sit right off the lead he could pounce and has the kick to win it. Never tried TWO TURNS. ??? INTERESTING ??? #6 – Rovic’s Wealth (Dominguez/Maker) Big timer closer staying at the same level. Maker has made me a lot of cash over the past year, and this horse looks like the one to beat at this distance. Faced tougher over the past two years and seemed to get back in form late in 2008. THE ONE TO BE RECKONED WITH #1A – All in No Outs (Napravnik/Galluscio) Will also run from the back and moves up in class. The class jump may prove to be too much, but the success over the inner track must be noted. It will be interesting to see if the #1 sets a hot pace up front. The problem is the #6 has a lot more kick on his way home than this gelding. JUST A NOTCH BELOW THE TOP TWO #7 – Jack on the Rocks (Maragh/Lake) Drops back to claiming ranks where he probably does better, but Stop Bluffing who beat him last swung 5 wide against a pretty week bunch. I think the best bet could be for this one to set a hot pace and regress again. I think there is room for improvement, but winning seems out of the realm. NOT ON TOP #8 – Eltish Star (Castro/DiPrima) Moving up in class after the victory last out. Cruised home easily over long shot Wonderous Day, but I question the ability of the others in that race. I think the move off the layoff was very impressive and I think even with the move up this one can compete today. MAIN RIVAL FOR THE WIN Race 2 - MCL16000 (Fillies) – 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) #2 – Angel Alana (Lopez/Barbara) 0 for 2 at AQU, 0 for 2 at distance. 0 for 6 lifetime. Has shown brief speed in some starts, but can’t sustain anything worth noting. NO CHANCE #1 – Fifty Six Straight (Napravnik/Campo) Late entry. Trainer 0/20 route to sprint. Enough Said, VERY UNLIKELY #3 – Blewest (Thompson/Martin) 0 for 7, stretched out last time and shortens up here. Trainer 0/14 making that move. UNLIKELY #4 – Bella Blu (Dominguez/Tannazo) 0 for 11, but 6/11 ITM. Some of the what he has faced have won back, but he has tried a lot of different surfaces. ITM FINISH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION #5 – Zegarra (Maragh/Gullo) Recent success on the inner track needs to be noted and is this one is the best of the horses in the rail group. HAS A CHANCE #6 – Silent Dreams (Alvarado/Glambanco) 0 for 11, and 0 for 3 on the inner track. 0 for 4 at the distance. BIG LONGSHOT #7 – Queen Mountain (Davis/Johnson) 0 for 3, never been close, never been bet. Trainer has many 0h for stats. BIG LONGSHOT #1A – Tame the Dice (Branch/Campo) 0 for 16 lifetime with two ITM finishes. The lack of success at the distance does not bode well for this horse getting bet in this start. NOT LIKELY #8 – Credit Storm (Sanchez/Ferraro) The recent success over the inner track and at the distance gives this one a slight nod in a horrendous field of maidens. BEST OF THE BUNCH Race 3 – ALW75000s (Fillies) – 1 Mile (Inner Track) #2 – Steady Play (Russell/A. Dutrow) Broke maiden at Delaware against a pretty soft field and went off as the second choice. Dutrow is pushing the right buttons this meet, but this one could be in a bit tough. TOUGH TASK #3 – Classofsixtythree (Sanchez/Sciacca) Broke maiden on the main track here at Aqueduct. Struggled on the inner track in first race against winners. Dominguez off this time, but I would be wary of using this one on anything but a wet track. WET SURFACE ONLY. #1 – Miss Royale (S.Morales/Contessa) Broke maiden at this distance on the main track by 8+ lengths. Hit the claiming ranks, but hasn’t been too impressive. The move to the Allowance race is pretty questionable after the lack of success in open claiming ranks against fillies. The Beyer numbers aren’t there either, so it’s going to be tough to use this one. TRAINER MOVES UP IN CLASS ???? WHY??? #4 – McVictory (Maragh/Barbara) 1st start of 2009, 2nd on the inner track. The maiden was very impressive posting a 76 Beyer figure. Looked like a typical filly after running so well in her first start. This one could be ready to go this time. Got completely out run last time from the 2 post, but I think a rebound is likely after a month off. CONTENDER #5 – Sister’s Speed (Espinoza/Bush) Takes blinkers off. Won with blinkers off at Belmont, but it’s interesting that they want the horse to sit back when it won near the front end. Going two turns for the first time what could mean good things or terrible things. I am going to lean towards improvement because of the horses she has faced in the past. I think this filly could really surprise with an ITM finish. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION #1A – Sister Kathleen (P.Morales/Contessa) 5/8 ITM finishes lifetime and 3/3 placing or better at the distance. Seems to like 1 mile. All of the success at the distance was at Delaware Park, but he got completely out run at a similar level last time. I am not going to completely rule out especially with the way things go at Aqueduct, but she is going to have to significantly improve here. OUTSIDE SHOT #6 – Diva’s Gold (Dominguez/Maker) Most of Maker’s prominent horses stay in Kentucky. I am not sure who works with these one’s in New York, but this one is coming off of a layoff and has a win at the distance. Fits the conditions properly, but Mike Maker has yet to win on the inner track in 14 starts since the beginning of the meet. ITM is very likely, but I question the layoff after a victory. It probably was smart after a filly throws out her best Beyer by far, but I think she really might need one like last time. THE HORSE TO BEAT IF SHE IS IN FORM. Race 4 – MCL15000 (New York Bred) – 1 Mile (Inner Track) #1 – Our Uncle Pete (Mangalee/Ryersen) 3rd start, no previous success. Did get bet in maiden debut if that means anything. If the horse can break well from the rail there is an outside chance this one could excel first time going two turns. They did pay $10,000 for this horse and he did get bet at the windows. LONGSHOT WITH A CHANCE #2 – Smokin Gladiator (Lopez/Iwinski) 3rd start with little improvement in his second start, Got hammered at the windows in second start adding blinkers. Showed some speed and went backwards. Lost 7 lengths in the race after getting stuck in traffic. Tries two turns with some breeding for success at the distance. CAN’T RULE OUT, YET! #3 – Enter Acting (Russell/Callejas) 4th start means a toss, usually. The big drop in class here might be worth noting because they bring him back in one week. Doesn’t happen often, but this one gets a better rider here and the trainer isn’t terrible. It will be interesting to see how this horse gets bet at the windows. ONLY AT ENTICING ODDS #4 – No Bloviating (S.Morales/Contessa) Blinks off. 4th start, drop in class. No success to note on the inner track. Works are not impressive. Comes back in 7 days with a trainer winning at 14% doing that. They paid $30k for this horse which could mean something in a field of pretty bad ones. LIKE THE UPSET POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS ONE #5 – Little Pie (Maragh/B.Brown) Blinkers on, 0/6 lifetime, 0/2 at track and distance. Hasn’t been close anywhere but Finger Lakes. Coming back quickly like the other two to the inside of him. (33%) MUST USE #6 – Karakorum Pirate (Rodriguez/Odletz) Blinks on (0%) stretches out for the first time which could benefit being out of Gulch. This one comes back in 5 days for some odd reason like the rest of these maidens. The trainer has been running pretty hot at the Big A. CAN’T COMPLETELY DISMISS #7 – Badge of Red (Bermudez/Iorio) 0 for 4, comes back quickly, and this one also has a slight chance with the class drop. Trainer 23% in the MCL ranks. Can’t dismiss the early speed shown in the last start. The blinkers helped and one trip over the distance usually can get this one in shape. Will be on the lead again. CAN HE SUSTAIN THE LEAD THIS TIME? #8 – Cats Pic (Thompson/Tescano) Trainer is 0/31 in Maiden Claiming races. Enough Said. NO CHANCE FOR THE TOP PRIZE #9 – Our Trucking Baron (Davis/Imperio) 0 for 3, never been bet lower than 42-1. Would be a complete surprise and not worth a penny of your money from Win-Show. NO CHANCE Race 5 – CLM35000n2l (Fillies) – 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) #1 – Shimmering Pal (R.Dominguez/Ritvo) 1/19 lifetime, 0 for 3 on the inner track. 7/15 ITM at distance. The drop in class could help him significantly. Drops in for a tag for the first time and I think the chances he gets claimed could be pretty high. Took a bad step last time and could be the lone pace setter in here. IF SHE GETS THE LEAD ALL BY HERSELF WATCH OUT. #2 – Donna’s Sandee (Studart/Hertler) 1/19 lifetime, 0 for 4 at the distance with 3 ITM finishes. Looks like more of a turf specialist, but the jump back up in class after running nicely off the layoff means this one could be ready. Studart isn’t as bad as 2/84 represents. WHAT WILL THE ODDS BE??? 10-1+ YES #3 – Miss Dolan’s Rose (Sanchez/Disento) The lack of success on the inner track and distance (0/3 combined), but the trainer is 0/20 in claiming races and 2/40 overall. NOT TODAY #4 – Chit Chat Cat (Castro/C.Brown) The last race is worth noting because the horse that won the race was the one that I bet in that race. I thought the break cost Chit Chat Cat the race. She was the best horse and the break cost her the jump on Victorious Dream. I really like this filly in this one. With the proper break and a better ride Chit Chat Cat will get the top prize 2nd off the layoff. BEST BET OF THE DAY #5 – Quiet Mover (S.Morales/Barker) Never tried the inner track, but is 3/5 ITM at the distance. Drop in class off conditioned allowance race where she was no where close. Can run from just off the pace and if the horse is ready off the layoff probably is one of the best horses in the race. The Beyer numbers aren’t too impressive, but I don’t like this one in this race. NEXT TIME #6 – Isn’t That Special (Russell/A.Dutrow) 1st off the claim with A.Dutrow 34%. The move up in class is interesting and noteworthy because the horse wasn’t for sale late in ’08, but 3rd off the layoff this one is probably ready to come flying from way off the pace. IF CLOSERS ARE WINNING, A BIG CONTENDER. #7 – Justinline (Santiago/Cedeno) 0/1 at Aqueduct and the trainer stats going turf-dirt say you must throw this one out. NO CHANCE FOR TOP PRIZE #8 – Wicked Queen (Davis/Coffey) 0 for 3 on inner track, 0 for 5 at this distance. Finally broke maiden last time out at Finger Lakes. The horse raked in $78,000 before breaking maiden with many ITM finishes. Will run from off the pace and probably would do a little better at a different track. Trainer 0/14 combined 2 month layoffs/won last start. EXOTICS ONLY TODAY. Race 6 – MCL25000 (New York Bred, Fillies) – 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) #1 – Defarge (Chavez/Contessa) 1st timer (4%) There really is no way you can use a Contessa horse first time out of the blocks. The jockey is running well in limited attempts, but it would take something you can’t find on paper to bring this one home. NOT THIS TIME #1A – Knot News (P.Morales/Contessa) 5th start, showed a lot of speed with Dominguez aboard last time. Get a jockey change and a entry mate in this contest. If this filly is supposed to be a rabbit in this affair than watch out for the first time starter. ??? LOOKING ELSEWHERE ??? #3 – Licentious Eyes (Hill/Breed) Blinkers and Lasix in 3rd start should help all the trouble she has experienced in her first two attempts in New York. The last try at 62-1 could have been better had the start been better. I like the speed shown in the debut. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED #4 – Wheelinndealin (Bocachica/Ferraro) 0 for 3 and never got bet at the MSW level. Added front wraps last time as well as blinkers. Trainer 0/13 going route to sprint. NO CHANCE FOR WIN. #5 – Green Harbor (Castro/Barbara) The lack of success at the distance and unwillingness to sustain any threats can’t bode well for this horse. Even with the very hot pace in the last race this horse couldn’t move on the leader. The top three in last were way ahead. NEEDS TO DO MORE TO TAKE MY MONEY #6 – A.P. Light (Luzzi/Ribendo) 0 for 4 lifetime with 1 ITM finish at the distance. Completely outrun in last start. Has been bet at this level, so if you play any of the rail horses you have to use this one too. OUTSIDE SHOT #7 – Shot Gun Gal (Dominguez/Rice) 2nd time starters 23% with Linda Rice. Dominguez hops on this one so you have to take notice. The first start was not impressive at all, but she probably wasn’t set to run in that one. LOGICAL CONTENDER #8 – Way to Karakorum (Lopez/Odintz) Horse seems to like the inner track with 2/2 ITM finishes on the surface. The horse does not like to win. Ran highest Beyer number in last and was still 3 back of winner who won in 1:12.4. Hard to believe she is fast enough to win this race. NOT ON TOP #2 – Dreamin’ofmaryland (Rodriguez/Parboo) 0 for 2, 1st start talent was shown moving from 8th – 4th. Last start the break cost the horse any chance on the inner track. Broke 9th and never came close. 2nd off the layoff and this one did get bet at the windows in the first start. Trainer is 0/24 MCL races, but this horse could be the surprise of the race. SURPRISING UPSET CHANCE #9 – Money Thief (Samyn/Ortiz) 0 for 5 with little to show at any fistance or any sirface, Not worth putting a penny on at all. NO CHANCE AT ALL. #2B – Big Bonnie (Mangalee/Parboo) 3rd start and room for improvement is expected after two ITM finishes to start off his career. They thought enough of him to take the tag off in her 2nd start. Laid off after the lack of speed in her 2nd start, but must be looked at on the track. CHECK ON TRACK, IF READY , CONTENDER Race 7 – MSW $41,000 (New York Bred) – 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) #1 – Roma Di Notte (Dominguez/Sciacca) 2nd start, bet 10-1 in opener. Faced some okay horses, but the trainer is 0/7 2nd time out. RESPECT JOCKEY, BUT NOT TRAINER. DON’T PLAY #2 – Mahopac (Russell/Hushion) 7th start, 4/6 ITM. Early speed, but will let other horses run by him or ahead of him. Pay check is likely again today, but the top prize is unlikely again. EXOTICS PLAYER, SHOW BET IS SAFE #3 – Buffalo Tsunami (Castro/Bush) 0 for 4, 5th start and 4th off the layoff. I am a believer the trainers work them for three starts and I toss in the 4th. This is a prime example. I don’t see this one winning in this race and the fractions up front probably won’t matter. 2nd -5th is possible, but not much value on top. NOT ON TOP #4 – Temore (Alvarado/Englehart) Finger Lakes connections try to take one at Aqueduct. Trainer stats are a bit inflated because of success upstate, but in a bad field you must take notice if they are bringing him over here first out. MUST USE IN ALL TICKETS #5 – Psychotic Summer (Sanchez/Tescano) 0/17 Lifetime. 4/7 ITM at Aqueduct inner track. Distance is not too kind, but they keep trying with a horse they paid a pretty good penny for. 2nd off the layoff since July. They were consistent last Spring off the layoff here and I expect the same today. I think this horse has a legit shot to break him maiden in this start. He has lost to a lot of multiple winners. LONGSHOT WITH ABILITY #6 – Mightybobbymagee (Studart/Ubillo) 0 for 2, jockey switch after being close twice and not finishing. Closed 11 lengths in debut and 3 lengths in last start. Could come a kickin late so be sure to have him in exotics. MOST EXOTICS PLAY. PENDING ON ODDS BET TO SHOW #7 – Personal Shopper (Hill/Kravets) The best early speed in the race and the fastest horse in a pretty weak field of MSW New Yorks breds. Gets a legit jockey now and comes off an extended layoff. Has been working well enough to suggest that he is back in the form to compete with this group. CONTENDER IF READY #8 – Don’t Forget Grampa (Smith/Renen) Another horse with early speed, but I have a feeling the horse just to the inside of this one will get the jump and with this one’s lack of success on the inner track it is hard playing him to be better. NOT IN THIS RACE, NOT IN THIS FIELD Race 8 – ALW50000s (Fillies) – 6 furlongs (Inner Track) #1 – Spina (Lopez/Donk) 2/3 ITM, 1/1 at the distance and drops to an allowance race after two in stakes company. The one win came at Saratoga in a MCL sprint this past Summer. The field appears to be pretty soft after everything has shook out. The horses she beat weren’t much. Likes the distance though so you must respect the connections. RESPECT #2 – Warm Country (Sanchez/Asmussen) 3rd start follwing up a victory at Saratoga in August with this start on the inner track. Coming off a decent layoff will probably need a start before she really gets rolling. CAN’T DISMISS FROM EXOTICS #3 – Faithful One (Maragh/Levine) Will run from just off the pace and finally broke maiden on main track in Novemeber. 4/6 ITM at the distance. Has taken well to the dirt after strictly running on poly in Canada. CONTENDER AT THE DISTANCE #4 – Mocha Shake (Napravnik/Sciacca) Will have a tough time competing in this field off the layoff. The work two back should earn some respect for this horse, but Maragh not getting back on does not help. NOT IN THIS ONE #5 – Kiss and Fly (Dominguez/B.Brown) Liked and bet in the last race. Moving up to an allowance race, but can compete at this level 2nd off the layoff. 1st off the claim for Brown and had trouble and smoked a decent field in her last start. Could run a 70 Beyer today? THE WINNER IN MY BOOK #6 – She’s My Fortune (Hill/A.Dutrow) 2nd off the layoff for a filly who came back very strong off the shelf at 4-1. Don’t expect 4-1 in this start today, but Dutrow is on fire. THE MAIN RIVAL #7 – Red Hot Baby (Castro/Terranova) Should do a lot better at this distance than the stretch out they attempted last time for some extra ALW cash. 2nd off a layoff not noted in the notes, but was the big favorite in two races at this distance last year. Slower horse than I thought at first. Times just don’t compare well. WOULD NEED TO IMPROVE MORE THAN I THINK SHE CAN Race 9 – CLM7500 – 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) #1 – End of an Era (Dominguez/Jacobson) Connections are very good together and this horse just got our run in his last start. They usually enter them smartly and if they think they are in over their heads he’ll be scratched. 4/5 ITM on the inner track, 8/14 ITM at the distance. HAS A CHANCE #3 – Freddy the Cap (S.Morales/Barrera) Jumps up in class from Finger Lakes and is 0/4 on this track. I can’t see it happening in this start. I am really curious as to why this horse is even running in this race. NO CHANCE FOR TOP PRIZE #4 – Hedge Fund (Studart/Persuad) Has beaten the rail horse in here and has been competitive over the past couple months coming off the layoff. I think they are running him too much though. 0/8 on the inner track and 3 races in 11 days seems like an awful lot. Shortens up. PROBABLY NOT IN THIS INTRIGUING FIELD #2 – R Fast Favorite (Lopez/Galluscio) comes off a win beating many of these back in this race. The drop in class proved too be enough to beat these. Looks like the same race 14 days later and will probably go off pretty short again today. CONSISTENT HORSE AND CONTENDER FOR THAT REASON #5 – Kamboo Man (Lopez/DiPrima) The Beyer number ran in the last race was tremendous on an off surface. I kind of find it hard to believe this stable is running this horse back at $7,500 after running a 108 beyer. The horse will be on the front end and shouldn’t have any trouble running a half a furlong longer today. IF HE CAN SUSTAIN FORM HE IS BEST #2B – Cielo Song (Lopez/Galluscio) Will be moving from the back of the pack against a bunch of speedsters. If he can get the horses in front of him to run 21.4 or 22.1 he could have a chance to run them down if they hit 45.1 OUTSIDE CHANCE TO RUN DOWN THE BIG DOGS #6 – Straitfromtheheart (Maragh/Levine) Another speedster who will press the fractions on the rail horses. He could be the reason the closers in the race have a shot. Maragh will have this horse on the front end or just behind them. I think it is possible that this one could sit just off the duel as well, but he will get out kicked if he tries that move. 2ND TIER SEEMS MORE LIKELY #7 – Corrupt Judge (Sanchez/Maver) Lack of recent success over the past couple years outside of New Jersey will cause me to let this one slide off the radar. Trainer is a combined 0/48 on all his stats. NO CHANCE #8 – Fifty Seven G (Napravnik/Grusmark) No starts on the inner track is not a positive sign for a horse with wins at Laurel and Suffolk. Can’t bet this speed horse with the better horses on the inside. Should get the pace going as well. NO CHANCE IN THIS FIELD #1A – Smokin Warrior (Russell/Jacobson) Wins over the Penn National circuit were impressive as he went through his conditions. Success on the inner track must be noted, but again the pace is going to be so hot and he is starting on the outside. NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE WITH THE PACE EXPECTED UP FRONT #9 – Americanus (Smith/Gyarmati) Speedster with not much of a chance even with the drop in class. 0/6 on the inner track. NO CHANCE #10 – Dashboard Drummer (P.Morales/Contessa) Part of an entry the last two times and benefited from a hot pace duel. Does not need the entry to do that part for him in this race. If he can close from the 10 post he has a legitimate shot to win this thing easy from the outside. Has the back class to kick these to the curb. Needs to find his game. BEST IF THE OLD MAN GETS ROLLING #11 – Ifonlyjohnny (Hill/B.Brown) Will run from off the pace first off the claim. Can not support with an 0/3 mark at the distance and nothing over this surface. Even off the layoff with a better trainer, it’s tough to bet from this position. NEXT TIME OFF THE CLAIM #12 – One Starry Nite (Thompson/Martin) Would need to have a bigtime change in strategy and form to have a shot. OUTSIDER
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#10
01-14-2009, 11:09 AM
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Playing this with my brother.
GP Late 4 .50 2,5,7,9,11 1,3,5,6 10 1,3,4,7 $1 7,10 3,9 6,8,10 7,10 $64 total Might be keying Stacie's Smile in the 'cap in a few exactas. Only if the will-pays are worth it. GL to those playing today!!!
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"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel Last edited by declansharbor : 01-14-2009 at 12:22 PM. Reason: had the 1 instead of the 7 in the first leg of the dollar P3
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#11
01-14-2009, 11:42 AM
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Thanks ThunderDan.
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#14
01-14-2009, 12:38 PM
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Longest. Post. Evar.
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#17
01-14-2009, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
I am having a pretty good day just playing WP on some of the horses I liked. Michael Maker was 0/14 on the track coming into today, but I thought his in the first two today were some of the stronger plays on the card. In Race 2, the break cost his #6 horse. McVictory got a real nice trip.
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Please become part of the effort to keep Canterbury Park kicking, Join the RACINO effort at www.racinonow.com
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#19
01-14-2009, 02:28 PM
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Trujillo continues to get the best out of his mounts. Excellent ride in the 5th. He's riding as good as anyone at Gulfstream right now, IMO.
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"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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