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#1
07-19-2008, 06:22 AM
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7/19: 60-P6; BEL; PHA; CNL; San Diego H.
Not much to discuss this weekend with anticipation of Saratoga taking the focus away from nearly everything. "Sixty Minute Six" has a Carryover of $67,000+ today but looks very challenging. The action in the "60-6" did trigger interest in the Belmont sextet and the last 4 at Philly. (In fact, a chat with Sal Sinatra, Philadelphia's racing secretary, may lead to the introduction of a late P4 there.)
Colonial's biggest day also lacks a late P4 but does have a P3 tied to the stakes trio there which includes the graded Derby & Oaks. Del Mar hits its' first weekend and there is a $135,000 carryover from Friday night's card. Had only looked at the featured San Diego H. (where I love Rebellion), but may glance at the rest of the 6 pack. BEL, PHA, DEL and MTH races listed in chronological order... PHILADELPHIA PARK (7-8-9-10) PHA 7th (2:56): ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3) Most Likely: #1 Preachin Heat 4-1 WON Next Best: #6 Global Winds 3-1 5th Best Value: #2 Travinator 5-1 3rd Exotics Add: #7 Raised for Speed 5-2 2nd $1 Exacta (1-7) Paid $13.00 $1 Trifecta Paid $55.00 BELMONT PARK (5-10) BEL 5th (3:07): CLMN3L, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, Super) Most Likely: #1 TRUE REBEL 5-2 3rd Best Value: #4 SCR Next Best: #9 Sonny's the One 5-1 2nd Super Add: #5 Akin 3-1 WON $2 Exacta (5-9) Paid $25.75 $1 Trifecta Paid $64.50 PHA 8th (3:22): 1st Greenwood Cup, 3+, 12f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Barcola 7-5 3rd Next Best: #6 Evening Attire 5-2 WON Best Value: #5 Phil the Power 12-1 2nd $1 Exacta (6-5) Paid $40.00 $1 Trifecta Paid $85.60 SIXTY MINUTE P6 A.) BEL 6th (3:40): NYB-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Unity 3-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Castle Harbour 10-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Pano's Love 7-2 5th Super Add: #8 Don't Fooli Houli 4-1 WON $1 Exacta (8-5) Paid $17.00 $1 Trifecta Paid $84.50 B.) MTH 7th (3:50): ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, Super) Most Likely: #6 ATWELL 3-1 WON Best Value: #3 Jansdream 6-1 3rd Next Best: #9 Quick to Charm 4-1 7th Super Add: #8 Current Case 5-1 6th .10 SUPER PLAY: Key 6 with 2-3-5-7-8-9 (1x6x5x4) = 120 x .10 = $12.00) $0.10 Superfecta (6-2-3-7) Paid $71.00 C.) DEL 8th (3:56): ALW/NC, 2yo-F, 5f Most Likely: #5 Samba's Run 2-1 4th Best Value: #6 Aunt Mabel 9-2 2nd Next Best: #1 Onearmedbandit 8-5 WON $1 Exacta (1-6) Paid $14.40 D.) PHA 9th (4:01): ALS/S, 3+, 8.5f (DD) Most Likely: #4 FOOLISH BID 9-2 5th Next Best: #2 Sweetsouthernson 5-2 WON Best Value: #8 SCR Exotics Add: #3 Ticket Home 9-2 4th E.) BEL 7th (4:12): NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3) Most Likely: #6 Imperial River 5-2 WON Next Best: #2 Triple Bogey Blues 4-1 4th Best Value: #5 Criminal Power 8-1 3rd Exotics Add: #1e Hennig entry 7-2 5th/10th F.) PHA 10th (4:28): MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m70-T (Super) Most Likely: #3 Dixie Queen 5-2 3rd to 2nd on DQ Best Value: #8 Adept 10-1 2nd to 5th on DQ Next Best: #6 U.S.S. Sea Lion 5-1 WON Super Add: #4 Pfullendorf 10-1 $1 Exacta (6-3) Paid $14.20 60 MIN. P6 Play: A. 4-5-6-8 B. 6 C. 1-5-6 D. 4 E. 2-5-6 F. 1-3-4-5-6-8 4x1x3x1x3x6 = $218 $2 Pick 6 Paid $35.80 (5 OF 6) <$25 PHA 7-8-9th P# Play: 7: 1-2-6-7 8: 1-3-6 9: 4 4x3x1 = 12 x $2 = $24 <$25 PHA 8-9-10th P3 Play: 8: 1-3-6 9: 4 10: 1-3-4-5-6-8 3x1x6 = $18 BELMONT CONT. BEL 8th (4:43): OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3) Most Likely: #3 Diamondrella 4-1 WON Best Value: #4 West of Gibraltar 6-1 DNF Next Best: #1 Sally Bowles 3-1 BEL 9th (5:15): 92nd CCA Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 10f (DD) Most Likely: #2 Acoma 2-1 4th Best Value: #3 Never Retreat 8-1 5th Next Best: #1e Godolphin entry WON/2nd BEL 10th (5:47): CLM, 3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #3 Ferocious Won 7-2 WON Best Value: #4 Ready Read 6-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Halo's Tiger 6-1 Super Add: #9 SCR <$75 BEL P4 Play: 7: 2-5-6 8: 3-4 9: 1-2 10: 2-3-4-8-(9/SCR)-10 3x2x2x5 = $60 $1 Pick 4 (6/3/1/3) Paid $60.25 (4OF4) COLONIAL 7th: Kitten's Joy, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #7 Ballast 4-5 5th Best Value: #2 Mint Slewlep 5-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Midwatch 9-2 WON Super Add: #6 Bastille 6-1 6th 8th: Virginia Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, Super) Most Likely: #7 Namaste's Wish 3-1 2nd Next Best: #10 I Lost My Choo 9-5 WON Best Value: #9 Cherokee Queen 5-1 6th Super Add: #4 Athena's Gift 8-1 5th 9th: 11th Virginia Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 10f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Sailor's Cap 8-5 3rd Best Value: #3 SCR Next Best: #2 Old Man Buck 5-1 Super Add: #6 SCR <$50 All Stakes P3 Plays: (X) = backup 7: 1-2-6-7 8: 7-10 9: 2-7-{8}-9 4x2x4 = $32 (An option is to heavy up on {8} Sailor's Cap) $1 Pick 3 (1/1,10/7) Paid $44.90 (3OF3) DEL MAR 6th: 67th San Diego H. (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Outstanding edition of the first graded stake at La Jolla with serious faves and live longshots.. Potenially lucrative event.. Most Likely: #3 Rebellion 7-2 5th Next Best: #2 Surf Cat 5-2 2nd Best Value: #5 Racketeer 15-1 10th Super Add: #7 Global Hunter 8-1 6th .10 SUPER PLAY: Key #3 Rebellion with 1-2-4-5-6-7 (1x6x5x4 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)... Will back that up with $2 exacta wheel of 1-2-4-5-6-7 over 3 ($12)... Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-20-2008 at 05:48 AM. 
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#3
07-19-2008, 04:44 PM
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Court Vision price skewing the odds in VA Derby... Your Round ($52) and Southwest ($45) especially overlaid considering scratches of Sultry and Budge...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
07-19-2008, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
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#5
07-20-2008, 04:50 AM
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Quote:
When I capped it, I wrote "4-2", which in my notes means there aren't any other horses to consider. I usually then use both horses in multi plays, but I thought Foolish Bid had a class edge and that he was liable to get the ideal stalking trip. But the 2 scratches (#8 Rough Shod Heir & #5 Basil St. John) changed the race completely from a pace standpoint as they WERE the speeds. As a result, (#2) Sweetsouthernson inherited the mantle upfront, and got no pressure, while Foolish Bid languished early and had no rally. I didn't get a chance to adjust the plays post-scratches either yesterday as I was over at Saratoga setting up the Barbecue and didn't get home until they were running the Belmont 6th... Was a very good day though overall.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
07-20-2008, 05:40 AM
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SB,
Not sure if it means anything, but the all stakes pick 3 payout you have showing at Colonial is off. The $44.90 you have showing was for $1 and not $2. I for one think the $89.80 for $2 is incredibly generous considering the parlay was $54.60
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