Belmont Friday Late 3

[GPK]

Looking at the 8th race specifically right now. I really want to use Can't Refuse in that race. Discussed this briefly with someone else and would love to hear some more thoughts from others. I realize Meteor will be tough, but CR hasn't had the best of trips the last few and I think with a cleaner trip, he can be there.

[Gate Dancer]

Not hard at all to make a case for CR. Maybe the jockey switch to CV will help and like most races at the 6F distance it will boil down to positioning and trip. Haven't seen the replays so not sure how bad his trouble was but he may be due for some 'racing luck'. MM will take plenty of cash and I don't believe he towers out over this field. MM will have to negotiate traffic with his closing style so he is just as likely to run into problems. Based on comments read here at DT, the jockey switch to Prado doesn't scare me either.

My concern this race would be with the Clement horse Five Towns. He may be ready to go 2nd off the bench and he also has comparable numbers to both CR and MM. I would love to get 6-1 on either FT or CR. Even Peperoni has some numbers (throwing out his last) that suggest he may be in the hunt. Curious to see if he gets a firm course and what he can do on it.

There's value here in my opinion and I like the EX BOX of 5-7-9.

For what it's worth..........

[the_fat_man]

For CR to win, the race has to fall apart. While there's every indication that it will, with a number of pacesetters and stalkers in the race, there's no guarantee of it (maybe Storm N Lightening doesn't blow the break and sits a trip rather than duels; maybe Timberah sits a stalking trip and controls the race, like he did last time) as there are a number of horses either coming off of or sitting on good races.

Let's assume, however, that the race falls apart. CR is just one of a number of late runners in the race. MM, IMO, is certainly the best of these (at one time, he was also able to sit closer to the pace).

But Five Towns, Inside Info (runs better for Rudy than he does for Samyn -- and he had severe gate issues, and lacked a clear stretch run, last time he and CR hooked up), and Bagavond (assuming he's not sent today) could all be running late as well.

Moreover, it appears that Maragh took off CR for a horse that accelerated late off a perfect trip last out. (scratched today).


Hope this confuses everyone who thought they had an opinion.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

For CR to win, the race has to fall apart. While there's every indication that it will, with a number of pacesetters and stalkers in the race, there's no guarantee of it (maybe Storm N Lightening doesn't blow the break and sits a trip rather than duels; maybe Timberah sits a stalking trip and controls the race, like he did last time) as there are a number of horses either coming off of or sitting on good races.

Let's assume, however, that the race falls apart. CR is just one of a number of late runners in the race. MM, IMO, is certainly the best of these (at one time, he was also able to sit closer to the pace).

But Five Towns, Inside Info (runs better for Rudy than he does for Samyn -- and he had severe gate issues, and lacked a clear stretch run, last time he and CR hooked up), and Bagavond (assuming he's not sent today) could all be running late as well.

Moreover, it appears that Maragh took off CR for a horse that accelerated late off a perfect trip last out. (scratched today).


Hope this confuses everyone who thought they had an opinion.

Mission accomplished.............

[ArlJim78]

1) Storm n Lightning
2) Metro Meteor
3) Peperoni
4) Timberah

[golfer]

I don't know if Timberah had any horse, or enough to win, but he got shut off very badly, and then got in trouble again, out of camera view, which is why he finished so far back (saw the 2nd trouble on the head-on view). Perhaps one to watch next out.