Race 2 July 3: Belmont Park

[pick4]

Most handicappers hate 2year maiden races but I disagree. Two 2year races are on the Thursday card at Belmont Park.

In race 2, we had a pair from Todd Pletcher. Pletch has been winning with 2 year olds in Kentucky but they have not run well here in NY. Bob Baffert ships a Vindication colt here to run on dirt so I think we have some serious intent on the part of Bullet Bob. I like Baffert's colt but I think Ride With the Herd could be a runner. Candy Ride was a sensational runner who has put over some big price horses in the past few weeks. Candy Ride might be a big time win early sire, this is the time to gamble on his offspring.

I'm going to box these two in an exacta and will put them in pick threes and fours.

[hockey2315]

Race 2 - I agree with you that this might be the time to bet Candy Rides. . . but I wouldn't be surprised if the Baffert/Pegram/Vindication turns out to be a freak. Also, if Kiarin's horse gets bet watch out - Macho Uno is 6/18 this year with FTS for a $4.21 ROI. I respect Dutrow's FTS record and his horses certainly have a chance, but I'll probably play against whichever one goes (the 2B looks a little better). Nothing about the Pletchers make me think 3-1 is warranted.

5 is probably the most likely but might be an underlay (if she was dead on the board I'd probably avoid her, too). . . 6 and 7 look like the value.

Race 4 - Tougher race in my opinion. . . I feel forced to use the Pletcher. . . The 2's workout pattern is too light for me - may need the race - and it's tough to get a read on Read the Footnotes (0/3 so far with his starters). I like the 3 better than the 1 out of the two Awesome Agains but I'm not crazy about him. The Iwinski horse has some bullet works but a bad debut trainer. . . Forest Wildcat's a very good debut broodmare sire, though. Who knows what you're getting with Dutrow's horse - dirty if you ask me. . . The 6 looks like a typical sneaky KMc horse with those works. The 7's another tricky one. I'll pass on the 8 and 9.

The verdict: watch the board I guess - which sucks because I'd like to try to link these two races together in a PK3. . .

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by pick4

Most handicappers hate 2year maiden races but I disagree. Two 2year races are on the Thursday card at Belmont Park.

In race 2, we had a pair from Todd Pletcher. Pletch has been winning with 2 year olds in Kentucky but they have not run well here in NY. Bob Baffert ships a Vindication colt here to run on dirt so I think we have some serious intent on the part of Bullet Bob. I like Baffert's colt but I think Ride With the Herd could be a runner. Candy Ride was a sensational runner who has put over some big price horses in the past few weeks. Candy Ride might be a big time win early sire, this is the time to gamble on his offspring.

I'm going to box these two in an exacta and will put them in pick threes and fours.

i love these races, i am doing my pick 4's right now for tomorrow and i am def. enjoying handicapping these, agree with hockey about the baffert horse, would not be suprised if she crushes these, but you never know with 2 yr olds.

[ArlJim78]

i wont touch the early pick4 for because of the 2yo races.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i wont touch the early pick4 for because of the 2yo races.

why though ? i think its a perfect time to dip in, maybe go a little deeper then normal, and maybe catch a large ticket

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

why though ? i think its a perfect time to dip in, maybe go a little deeper then normal, and maybe catch a large ticket

i need a crystal ball for those races. i might put up with one in the sequence, but two makes it a pass for me.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Race 2 - I agree with you that this might be the time to bet Candy Rides. . . but I wouldn't be surprised if the Baffert/Pegram/Vindication turns out to be a freak. Also, if Kiarin's horse gets bet watch out - Macho Uno is 6/18 this year with FTS for a $4.21 ROI. I respect Dutrow's FTS record and his horses certainly have a chance, but I'll probably play against whichever one goes (the 2B looks a little better). Nothing about the Pletchers make me think 3-1 is warranted.

5 is probably the most likely but might be an underlay (if she was dead on the board I'd probably avoid her, too). . . 6 and 7 look like the value.

Race 4 - Tougher race in my opinion. . . I feel forced to use the Pletcher. . . The 2's workout pattern is too light for me - may need the race - and it's tough to get a read on Read the Footnotes (0/3 so far with his starters). I like the 3 better than the 1 out of the two Awesome Agains but I'm not crazy about him. The Iwinski horse has some bullet works but a bad debut trainer. . . Forest Wildcat's a very good debut broodmare sire, though. Who knows what you're getting with Dutrow's horse - dirty if you ask me. . . The 6 looks like a typical sneaky KMc horse with those works. The 7's another tricky one. I'll pass on the 8 and 9.

The verdict: watch the board I guess - which sucks because I'd like to try to link these two races together in a PK3. . .

McLaughlin can win first out be his horses run much better after they run and lose a maiden race. Bafferts filly has no gaps in the works and he ships when he could of ran out west. This one might be a runner.

Sean Avery might be a good horse. Iwinski is getting back in the game after a break to take care of health related issues. He can win with FTS's, the stat listed in the form is misleading. I have a feeling that DutrowJr. has a horse who can sprint.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pick4

McLaughlin can win first out be his horses run much better after they run and lose a maiden race. Bafferts filly has no gaps in the works and he ships when he could of ran out west. This one might be a runner.

Sean Avery might be a good horse. Iwinski is getting back in the game after a break to take care of health related issues. He can win with FTS's, the stat listed in the form is misleading. I have a feeling that DutrowJr. has a horse who can sprint.

Fair enough - I consider Iwinski to be a pretty sharp trainer but I need to see that he can still win with firsters before i start betting them too hard. If I end up playing the race I'll probably use him.

Like I said - I'll watch the board with KMc's horse as the money usually shows with his live horses. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the Baffert shipping angle. It can be explained a few ways - and it's not like he was shipping from Calder or something to run for a bigger purse. . .

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Race 2 - I agree with you that this might be the time to bet Candy Rides. . . but I wouldn't be surprised if the Baffert/Pegram/Vindication turns out to be a freak. Also, if Kiarin's horse gets bet watch out - Macho Uno is 6/18 this year with FTS for a $4.21 ROI. I respect Dutrow's FTS record and his horses certainly have a chance, but I'll probably play against whichever one goes (the 2B looks a little better). Nothing about the Pletchers make me think 3-1 is warranted.

5 is probably the most likely but might be an underlay (if she was dead on the board I'd probably avoid her, too). . . 6 and 7 look like the value.

I know we're not supposed to box things but when you play 5,6 w/ 5,6,7 w/ 5,6,7 and it comes out 7-5-6 and pays $580 it gets a little frustrating.