Kentucky Oaks/Derby Analysis & Selections

[Bogey]

Churchill Downs - Oaks/Derby Double
Fri - Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Oaks

#1 Golden Doc A - Cali filly has been solid this year and fired a bullet at CD.
#2 Absolutely Cindy - Kinmon homebred has been useful as a turfer, but her lone dirt try was a disaster. She did beat the boys in the Battagilia at Turfway Park.
#3 Awesome Chic - Florida Oaks winner really improved going two turns and is capable with another step forward.
#4 Elusive Lady - Will show some early speed, but hard to imagine she'll be around late.
#5 Rasierra - With only a maiden win to her credit, I'm leaning elsewhere.
#6 Country Star - Frankel has been high on her since the beginning with good reason. Two time G1 winner has a ton of talent. Look for her to find her best stride late.
#7 Little Belle - Looking for 4th consecutive victory for Godolphin. Would not be a surprise.
#8 Proud Spell - Diminutive filly has a similar racing record to Pyro, which includes two solid efforts in the Big Easy before a bad start dud at KEE.
#9 A to the Croft - McPeek taking a shot after she failed at odds on in an allowance at KEE.
#10 Bsharpsonata - Brings sharp record and backers will get another decent price.
#11 Pure Clan - Big Brown gang looking for a memorable weekend. She'll be rolling late and finding the winner's circle

Top 5

#11 Pure Clan
#8 Proud Spell
#6 County Star
#3 Awesome Chic
#7 Little Belle

Sat - Race 10 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Cool Coal Man - Benefited from perfect set up in the Fountain of Youth at GP from same post, but this is a different animal. Looks like Tarzan, but runs like Jane.
#2 Tale of Ekati - Wood Memorial winner will hope the race falls apart.
#3 Anak Nakal - Has not progressed as a Sophomore and looks a cut below. Pedigree says yes, but seems like Zito is bringing a couple of knives to a gun fight this year.
#4 Court Vision - Making important 3rd start of the year and is training well at the right time. It seems he's sitting on a big one and must be included in all exotics.
#5 Eight Belles - Connections taking a swing with nice filly that looked tired in last and now must go another furlong and a half?
#6 Z Fortune - Strong 2nd in G2 Arkansas Derby, but his latest workout was iffy at best.
#7 Big Truck - Won a weak Tampa Bay Derby and simply seems over-matched here.
#8 Visionaire - Class act, Matz easy to root for. Must bring A game to contend with this bunch.
#9 Pyro - Winchell homebred has the foundation and ability to be a Derby winner. Toss Blue Grass debacle because of the surface. I look for him to be draped with roses.
#10 Colonel John - Tough customer always finds a way of being right there at the wire. Sizzled over the CD strip last Sunday.
#11 Z Humor - Mott expected better this year and takes the hood off.
#12 Smooth Air - Great story and glad to see him in the starting gate. That being said, he's up against it.
#13 Bob Black Jack - Will keep Big Brown company on the front end before packing it in.
#14 Monba - Gutsy victory in the Blue Grass and has an allowance win at CD. Pletcher's best shot this year and should not be ignored.
#15 Adriano - Good looking (Red) son of A.P. Indy is the most well rested participant. Prado had options.
#16 Denis of Cork - Last minute entry looks to capitalize in a big way. Had legitimate excuses in Illinois Derby and has been training lights out at CD. Great value on a very talented runner.
#17 Cowboy Cal - Ran his eye balls out in defeat to stablemate and just seems as a pace factor in this event.
#18 Recapturetheglory - Illinois Derby winner will flash some early speed before he checks out.
#19 Gayego - G2 Arkansas Derby winner proved he can handle the dirt. Dreadful post.
#20 Big Brown - Super confident connections seem to like all the attention. Not worth taking a short price from the parking lot. Pass

Top 5

#9 Pyro
#16 Denis of Cork
#10 Colonel John
#4 Court Vision
#14 Monba

Oaks/Derby Double - 6 8 11 / 9 16

Good Racing Luck

[2Hot4TV]

Pyro has turned into the forgotten contender. He might be 7/1 or higher.

[kgar311]

Weak TB Derby for Big Truck when he defeted the 1-20 champion War Pass???
When he outduled a decent Atoned, Pletcher and Johnny V.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Weak TB Derby for Big Truck when he defeted the 1-20 champion War Pass???
When he outduled a decent Atoned, Pletcher and Johnny V.

Where's Atoned in this field? He's also by Hook and Ladder which makes me think he won't like 10 furlongs.

[cal828]

Bogey. I don't know whether you're right in your analysis or not, although I personally like your top 4 picks, but I love your comments about CCM and Anak Nakal. Made me laugh!!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Weak TB Derby for Big Truck when he defeted the 1-20 champion War Pass???
When he outduled a decent Atoned, Pletcher and Johnny V.

Yep. War Pass had a crazy bad race -- too bad to believe. So it's not like Big Truck gets all this credit for really beating War Pass. He benefitted from the real War Pass not showing up.

And Atoned isn't much, and 'Truck was life and death to beat that guy.

Big Truck seems like a good key in the third spot of the reverse superfecta.

[kgar311]

Atoned was a pretty decent two year old and ran the race of his life there. Im not saying Big Truck is a super horse or anything I just cant agree with the field being "weak" with a champion in the race.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Atoned was a pretty decent two year old and ran the race of his life there. Im not saying Big Truck is a super horse or anything I just cant agree with the field being "weak" with a champion in the race.

I don't think the field was weak, per se.

But after seeing the running of the race, it's as if War Pass weren't even in it. If you take him out of it you've got a field of awful to decent allowance horses.

It wasn't a weak field to begin with, but it's certainly a weak race looking back.