Need Help. Is this a lock?

[tomm5647]

Hello all. I rarely post but i read everyday and I really appreciate the information and insights that are available here everyday. I'm asking for your input on tomorrows 8th at Aqueduct. I have #5 Jack's Express in my stable mail. He raced 2/24 finished a tiring 4th and was claimed by Gary Contessa on that day. Contessa is wheeling him right back in the 8th tomorrow. 5/2 ML and I'm thinking to back him BIG. Am I nuts? What do you think? Don't worry you won't hurt my feelings. be honest.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by tomm5647

Hello all. I rarely post but i read everyday and I really appreciate the information and insights that are available here everyday. I'm asking for your input on tomorrows 8th at Aqueduct. I have #5 Jack's Express in my stable mail. He raced 2/24 finished a tiring 4th and was claimed by Gary Contessa on that day. Contessa is wheeling him right back in the 8th tomorrow. 5/2 ML and I'm thinking to back him BIG. Am I nuts? What do you think? Don't worry you won't hurt my feelings. be honest.

As long as you've qualified you're feelings...You might in fact be nuts. Please don't take it the wrong way and welcome, please post more often

Seriously,I don't think he runs back quickly unless he feel the horse didn't give a full effort last out..If he in fact was tiring ( don't have the pps to tell when he ran previously to 2/24) anthing close to 5-2 is throwing money away as it's probably new owners directions, not his..again all speculation - I don't know anything about the horse, where he came from ,who claimed him ..I'm fairly familiar with GC and his style - not speaking for him, but he most likely would give the horse time if he tired in the last off the claim

[pmacdaddy]

Claimed for Winning Move, from James Jerkins. Month space between last two. Seems to handle Inner well.

I keep looking at Touchdown Kid stretching out, if the price is large enough.

Good luck!

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by tomm5647

Hello all. I rarely post but i read everyday and I really appreciate the information and insights that are available here everyday. I'm asking for your input on tomorrows 8th at Aqueduct. I have #5 Jack's Express in my stable mail. He raced 2/24 finished a tiring 4th and was claimed by Gary Contessa on that day. Contessa is wheeling him right back in the 8th tomorrow. 5/2 ML and I'm thinking to back him BIG. Am I nuts? What do you think? Don't worry you won't hurt my feelings. be honest.

He's not in for a tag, when others are....including Touchdown Kid. That's to be noted.

I'm not able to check the histories, but also note this is a $49,000 race for New York breds only. Someone might have needed to claim a New York bred to be in this one.

Not touting, but just things I'd look at.

If I had a hunch like you seem to have, I'd probably play solidly to win, with a place bet to recoup and still end up a slight winner if he finishes 2nd.

With three horses with morning lines of 5-2, 7-2, and 2-1 I'd think the place would be a healthy insurance.

If I lose both, it just wasn't my day but I played my research and observations I'd think if in your shoes.

Not the way I ordinarily bet, understand. But the way I do occasionally bet on a strong feeling in similar situations.

Lay it out there for a nice win if you're right, but don't risk too much in case you've misread.

[pmacdaddy]

Short price, but crushed 'em. Hope you did well...

[tomm5647]

Thanks P-Mac, it's really great when you really think you have a race figured out and it comes in just as you thought. I don't have any access at work so I usually bet early bird on the way in. The weather in NY had me a little nervous plus the fact that you're only guessing at what the final odds will be. I did have a good win bet and a small place so I've got a few dollars to play this weekend and get a case of beer.

[pmacdaddy]

Good feeling at any price...

Noticed that Contessa also wheeled Wild Geese right back off the claim to win the 3rd on short rest as well. That one was in for a tag and was claimed by Levine.