The New 'HWJB' Betting Dairy

[Kasept]

Pleased to announce the return of the one & only HWJB!

[Hwjb]

Steve, I think it's been too long to justify continuing from where we left off, and I see I left things in a pretty messy state with regards recording bets etc. So might just start from scratch I think.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

Steve, I think it's been too long to justify continuing from where we left off, and I see I left things in a pretty messy state with regards recording bets etc. So might just start from scratch I think.

Welcome back Harry. Good to see you again.

Kev

[brockguy]

Cheltenham today Harry?? some good racing. hope all is well

[Hwjb]

Alright Brock. In the office, fraid I couldn't get to Chelts today, never mind. Should have backed Maljimar, but decided not to have any bets there today.

Couple at Donny tho.

I really like Edmo Yewkay in the next. I reported on him last time when he shaped as if the refitting of blinkers would suit, and Tim Easterby had a couple of winners yesterday which is encouraging. 9/1 is a fantastic price.

In the Sky Bet I really fancy An Accordion for all the price has gone a bit and there are certainly doubts over his jumping. Aztec Warrior is a fair each way bet also.

[Hwjb]

2:30 Doncaster:
Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w.

3:00 Doncaster:
An Accordion, 2pts win.
Aztec Warrior 0.5pt e/w.

[brockguy]

back with a bang Harry... well done..

[NoChanceToDance]

Well done Harry, we've had to go without food for these months you've been away.

Good luck in the skybet.

[Hwjb]

An enjoyable result, cracking jump at the last when he needed it.

Can't believe the money for An Accordion, it's half tempting to do a huge u-turn and side with Opera Mundi as he could well represent value now. But I won't.

What did you make of that Gold Cup trial in name only? Our Vic didn't seem to dog it for once, and actually kept on gamely enough, but just not as well as the winner up the hill. I remain convinced that Our Vic would be worth a crack at the Grand National, if they didn't run him between now and then. By and large he's a safe jumper nowadays, the flatter track would suit, and he'd be able to hunt around for the first circuit, and it probably wouldn't represent any greater test of stamina than 25f on soft ground at Cheltenham. I guess David Johnson would have reservations about running him in it though.

[brockguy]

nice one harry, was on an accordian and had juv place only... our vic ran well enough today..4 weeks is still too little rest for him.. Im still hopeful for Neptune. I think he is a cracking horse and will come on plenty from today.

[Hwjb]

I think you're right, he clearly is best fresh, and that means having to restrict him to two or max three runs a season. He ran about 4lb below his King George today. I thought Neptune Collonges ran a blinder and should prove better this season than last year. He's just unfortunate to hail from a yard that has such depth in the division.



Edmo Yewkay WON (15/2)
An Accordion WON (11/2)
Aztec Warrior PULLED UP (25/1)

[Hwjb]

I've only looked at one race today, the two-mile mares handicap hurdle at Ludlow. Not the best quality of races, but it is a Monday, and there looks to be a fair bet on in Femme d'Avril. The negatives are the doubtful form of the yard and that we're lumbered with Andrew Thornton, however, the return to a sharp 2m should prove in her favour and, tongue tied, she is worth a small bet at 16/1. Rich Nomad is also probably worth a speculative few quid at 40/1 (60 on Betfair), as she is potentially well handicapped on what she seemed to show on her penultimate outing (though was probably flattered), and the better ground may just suit. Littlemissdynamite is very short for what she's done and rates a fair place lay, although her attitude is probably better than several of those she's up against here.

Femme d'Avril 1pt e/w 16/1
Rich Nomad 0.5pt e/w 40/1

[Hwjb]

Femme d'Avril UNPLACED. Made no impact, not knocked about once held.
Rich Nomad UNPLACED. Caught the eye and isn't one to give up on, given plenty to do and leaving the firm impression she wasn't seen to best effect, not given anything like a hard time.


At Exeter today Nemetan looks to hold pretty solid each-way claims in the handicap chase at 3:50. Whilst the yard haven't had a winner since New Year's Day it's not as if they are running much below form and this one has been unfortunate in he has been ridden exclusively by Andrew Thornton and Robert Walford, both grossly deficient jockeys. Christian Williams isn't much better, it must be said, but he should come on for his reappearance (though it is a slight worry that he's been off 9 weeks since) and I don't think he is the second string (Jacob always rides Silver Inngot). Ladbrokes were going 10/1 earlier which I've missed, but I'm still prepared to take the 13/2 on offer at Betfred as Betfair seems to be down at the moment.

In the handicap hurdle that follows Idian Mix looks pretty well handicapped on his return from 22 months off and 7/2 looks a fair price.


Nemetan 1pt e/w 13/2
Idian Mix 1pt win 7/2

[Hwjb]

Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w, WON 15/2.
An Accordion, 2pts win, WON 11/2.
Aztec Warrior, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 25/1.
Femme d'Avril, 1pt e/w, LOST 14/1.
Rich Nomad, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 33/1.
Nemetan, 1pt e/w, WON 5/1.
Idian Mix, 1pt win, LOST 7/2.


Had a look at three of the handicaps at Wincanton so far, and think there is a bit of value knocking about, particularly in the 2:10 with Topless, something we're all very fond of as it is! She ran well in a novice at Plumpton on her chasing debut before shaping as if her stamina was stretched in a race that has worked out at Warwick last time. She remains lightly raced and probably has a bit more improvement in her, and Felix de Giles is a jockey I have a bit of time for, so no qualms about him taking over. 13/2 is a very solid each way bet, especially with Never So Blue having questions to answer at this trip. It could also be worth chucking a few quid at Even More at a big price as he is plummeting down the weights, and goes well at this course, for all he is a bit of a hound these days.

In the next, the market is correct in that Chapoturgeon has the best chance, but 11/8 is a bit short given that he looks quirky, altohugh his idling at Lingfield last time at least means he hasn't been hit as harshly as he might by the handicapper. However, Lester Leaps In appeals more as he's available at 16/1. Unfortunately there are only 7 runners, but it's worth having a bit on to win andd taking the chance, as he looked sure to come on for his reappearance when too keen for his own good and Henderson's are going really well.

Contrarily I think the market is wrong in the 3:10 as Predateur looks a rogue to me, and a hype horse to boot, his odds of 2/1 making no appeal whatsoever. I'll be laying him, whilst also backing Our Jasper (10/1), as he has the form in the book and strikes as a particularly sound jumper, and Gentle John (5/1) who has also appealed as the type to make a better chaser and finally seems to be getting his act together, possibly better than the bare result at Ascot last time, when managing to keep on despite setting a strong pace.


2:10 Topless 2pts e/w
2:40 Lester Leaps In 0.5pt win
3:10 Our Jasper 1pt win
Gentle John 1pt win

[Hwjb]

I love betting at Musselburgh, and today will be no different hopefully. The 2:00 is an interesting race in that you've got Ipay Isay who looks a bit of a 'job' horse, which means the market will basically tell you what's going to happen with him. Given that I'm looking to back Sea Senor for a place, but will also have a bit on each way. He looks sure to go well, and whilst his lack of consistency is a mite concerning, I think he had excuses on at least a couple of occasions.

Later on we see the return of Harper Valley, a horse Gordon has done really well with, his defeat of Franchoek looking better all the time. Whilst Tamimi's History beat him on the Flat giving away weight, and gets 8lb here, hurdling is a different game, and I fully expect HV to enhance his Triumph Hurdle claims.

Sea Senor 1pt e/w
Harper Valley 3pts win

[Hwjb]

Sea Senor 1pt e/w LOST 15/2. Another poor ride from Tom Greenall who is quickly becoming one of my least favourite jockeys.
Harper Valley 3pts win LOST 13/8. Reportedly injured his back after making a mistake down the back, pulled up not long after. Apparently all should be well for Cheltenham pleased to report.



Always a cracking card on this day at Newbury. In the Game Spirit I fancy Master Minded to put himself forward as a true Champion contender, although won't be backing him to do so. In the Aon Denman should be far too good for a couple of faded stars and a horse about 2 stone his inferior, but the race to be betting in is the Totesport Trophy.
I have a suspicion that there may not be quite the breakneck pace everyone expects of this race, with only Whispered Promises and Doctor David as confirmed front runners so ideally you're looking for a horse who is versatile in how he runs. I feel the Cheltenham race won by Five Dream holds the key, and the fron three from that race make most appeal here, Mohayer perhaps most so at the prices. Meanwhile at 50/1 or so Mephisto is far too big having made an encouraging return in the Fighting 5th, as he's well treated on his novice form and it would be no surprise at all to see Caracciola run another big race in this for all at 11 it may be asking too much for him to win. I will also be hoping that Roman Villa, with solid place claims, continues his upward curve for Gordon Elliott.

Five Dream 1pt win
Mohayer 1pt e/w
Mephisto 1pt e/w

There are a couple of interesting handicap chases at Ayr. Something Silver and General Hardi are almost certainly both very well handicapped at present, but with major doubts surrounding the latter's jumping, SS should be backed to win.

Meanwhile in the 2.55 there are just five runners and three confirmed front runners, so things could develop into a fair test, something which may count against Cloudy Lane whose stamina remains suspect, and I'll take a chance with Another Rum, who is inconsistent it's true, but may just be perked up by the application of headgear, and who is a thorough stayer who should be suited by conditions.


Something Silver 3pts win
Another Rum 1pt win

[Hwjb]

I covered the mares maiden at Bangor just after Christmas in which Figurita, a sister to the yard's winning hurdler/chaser Floreana. made her hurdling debut. I thought she shaped with plenty of encouragement and looks nailed on to come on for it. She has plenty to find with Serhaaphim, but the 7/1 that is available looks a decent each-way bet or, alternatively, any price of evens or better in the place only market on Betfair looks good value.

Figurita 1pt e/w @ 7/1 & 2pts place.

[Hwjb]

Thanks Chris.


The betting for the two-mile handicap hurdle at Musselburgh today is remarkably one sided, with the unexposed Halla San currently odds on. He was useful on the Flat and won a novice in decent style over course and distance last time and I make him just about the most likely winner of this. However, the price is absurd. The runner-up from that race himself bombed out when made a warm favourite for a similar race to today's here last time, and the time of the novice Halla San won is not as quick as might have been expected for a seemingly well contested event and, on balance, its form I'm happy to take a reserved view about.

If he represents no value whatsoever then Pilca is an astonishingly big price. Declan Carroll did really well with this one after buying it out of a seller from Alison Thorpe, winning a handicap over course and distance on similar ground. He has shaped better than the result suggests on both starts this season, seemingly in need of the run on the first occasion and going well until the rain-softened conditions conditions caused him to weaken at Haydock next time. The booking of Tom O'Brien, who won on the horse for Thorpe is eye-catching, it much the best of his two rides at a course far more northerly than he would normally venture to. All in all the 12/1 Bet365 are offering is a superb each-way bet (I make him about a 7/2 chance or so).

In the same race I'm also having a little on Calculaite each-way at 20/1, as he has conditions to suit for the first time in a fair while (had been tried over fences before encountering ground far too soft last time), and this track suits him down to the ground.

PILCA 3pts e/w @ 12/1
CALCULAITE 1pt e/w @ 14/1

[Hwjb]

Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w, WON 15/2. +9
An Accordion, 2pts win, WON 11/2. +13.75
Aztec Warrior, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 25/1. -1
Femme d'Avril, 1pt e/w, LOST 14/1. -2
Rich Nomad, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -1
Nemetan, 1pt e/w, WON 5/1. +6
Topless, 2pts e/w, FELL 13/2. -4
Lester Leaps In, 0.5 pt win, LOST 12/1. -0.5
Our Jasper, 1pt win, LOST 13/2. -1
Gentle John, 1pt win, LOST 4/1. -1
Idian Mix, 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Sea Senor 1pt e/w, LOST 15/2. -2
Harper Valley 3pts win, LOST 11/8. -3
Something Silver 3pts win, LOST 11/4. -3
Another Rum 1pt win, LOST 5/1. -1
Five Dream 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Mohayer 1pt e/w, PLACED 16/1. +3
Mephisto 1pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -2
Figurita 1pt e/w & 2pts place, LOST 8/1 & 1.36/1. -4
Pilca 3pts e/w, PLACED 12/1. +4.2
Calculaite 1pt e/w, FELL 20/1. -2

INVESTED 43.5 pts
+6.45 pts
14.8% ROI

[Hwjb]

Just one race I fancy getting involved in today, the three-mile handicap chase at Sandown. Frustratingly there are just the six runners as I'd have liked to have had a bit on Without A Doubt each way. As it is I fancy Jaunty Times to get back on track at around 4/1. His reappearance effort at Cheltenham was encouraging but he tended to race a shade lazily at Kempton next time. The handicapper has been fairly generous in dropping him to what looks an attractive mark given his form as a novice last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to that level with conditions to suit and, hopefully, the cheekpieces on to perk him up a bit. I'm not sure how much further improvement Millards Point is open to and am happy to take him on at 2/1, Bubble Boy's mark looks a stiff on and has questions to answer after shaping as if amiss last time, The Luder is a hound, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the top two in the weights finishing first and second.

Jaunty Times 2pts win.
Jaunty Times and Without A Doubt 0.5pt RFC.