My Prediction for Santa Anita

[Rupert Pupkin]

I don't think there is any doubt that they are going to switch to regualr dirt. That is pretty obvious. The question is what they're going to do later on. At the end of the meet or at the end of the year, will they put in another synthetic surface or will they try to stick with conventional dirt? They're going to get a waiver that will allow them to use regular dirt, but the waiver will expire at the end of this year. They wouldn't have asked for this waiver if they didn't intend on putting in conventional dirt.
Stronach did not want to put a synthetic track in to begin with. I think that at one point he considered playing hardball and was going to fight the CHRB. Everyone pretty much wanted him to put in a synthetic surface and he finally gave in.
It will be very interesting to see what happens this time around. I would not be surprised if he says, "Look, we tried it. We spent $11 million and it didn't work. I'm not going to do it again. If you want to try to force me to put in another synthetic track then I'll see you in court."
I can't say for sure that this is what's going to happen. But I am pretty sure that they are going to put in a dirt track at least for now. I can't say what will happen after that.
I think they will be able to put a new dirt tack in relatively fast, so I don't think that they will need to move to Hollywood Park. It was pretty clear from Charles' statement yesterday that they are not going to move to Hollywood.

[MaTH716]

What is your prediction for the surface that the breeders cup will be run over?

[Danzig]

i agree that he will try to stick with dirt, if that is what they are going to do right away--why install another surface, after trying AWT, only to pull that up and go BACK to another AWT? three installations in a year? no way...

and as for the CHRB fighting that...good luck, as frank need only mention bay meadows. then there's the fact that both bay meadows and hollywood are expected to only be short term, with development expected in the near future of both properties.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

What is your prediction for the surface that the breeders cup will be run over?

interesting side bar to the main story...will the BC come out in favor of remaining on a conventional surface? did the bc committee know when they chose santa anita that it would have an AWT or were the dates announced previous to the chrb mandate?

[tiggerv]

I think they will move to dirt and end up having a great meet. Pressure will come from everywhere on the CHRB to let them keep it especially with a Breeders Cup this year.

The open questions involve all the legalities and who is going to pay for all of it.

[2Hot4TV]

Is Stronach an IDIOT? The whole point of cushion track was to continue to get east coast stables to keep horse out west and it was starting to work.

Santa Anita F*** ed up the installation and the manufacture has said that it will do what ever it takes to make it right.

Get Cushion track to get it right and move on.

Santa Anita and Steve Woods were never able to do dirt right, the back side was fast and from the 1/4 pole to the wire was slow. If you didn't have the lead at the 1/4 pole you had NO CHANCE.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Is Stronach an IDIOT? The whole point of cushion track was to continue to get east coast stables to keep horse out west and it was starting to work.

Santa Anita F*** ed up the installation and the manufacture has said that it will do what ever it takes to make it right.

Get Cushion track to get it right and move on.

Santa Anita and Steve Woods were never able to do dirt right, the back side was fast and from the 1/4 pole to the wire was slow. If you didn't have the lead at the 1/4 pole you had NO CHANCE.

I know you meant this but Santa Anita didn't mess anything up, they paid CushionTrack to install it, and they messed it up. Who knows what is going to happen

[eajinabi]

Hey, why not run turf races all day? I would love to see an 8 race 6.5 furlong race with 12 horses in each. Sounds delicious!

[2Hot4TV]

I think Santa Anita tried to make the horseman happy after seeing what happened at Del Mar and I admire them for that.

I just don't think they should go to court and fight for a dirt track. I'm starting to like the syntheic tracks.

Say what you want, but it has put more horses in races. Golden Gate has a whole new life with its track.

I love Santa Anita and don't want to see this turn into a pissing contest that no one wins.

[hockey2315]

Ya Golden Gate's surface has just been super

[Kasept]

I guess no one heard Rick Hammerle update the ATR audience tonight at 6:30.

A final decision will be reached tomorrow once SA management knows if there is enough topsoil and associated materials available to them for immediate delivery for the laying down of a dirt surface. If there is, they will install it while running turf cards.

If there is not enough material available to them, they will soldier on with the CushionTrack as is.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Ya Golden Gate's surface has just been super

Owners and trainers are still running thier horses on it no matter what this board has to say. Full fields too.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Owners and trainers are still running thier horses on it no matter what this board has to say. Full fields too.

I am not anti-synthetic but 12 horses have broken down or been vanned off in 17 days at GG so far. That is an insane statistic. If that happened at SA/Hollywood/Del Mar it would be front page news. Del Mar had 8 breakdowns in their entire meet in 06 and it was front page news and probably one of the reasons Cali is all synthetic.

[jpops757]

Any decision yet?

[TitanSooner]

tomorrow

[Riot]

I am not anti-synthetic but 12 horses have broken down or been vanned off in 17 days at GG so far. That is an insane statistic.

I guess the numbers being thrown about (here, Pace Advantage, ATR) reference GG are from Dan Ilman's DRF form blog? What I count from what Dan actually posted is:

2 broke down, 9 vanned off, 5 walked off, 1 stopped work as saddle slipped.

01-04-8:
Dan Ilman: Here's what I found for the last few weeks at Golden Gate:
December 12 - none
December 13 - King of My Castle vanned off, Haint's Deal walked off
December 14 - Roman Wish vanned off
December 15 - Deputy Bertrando walked off, Hampton Way vanned off
December 16 - none
December 22 - Jump Rope Girl broke down
December 26 - Gassan Snow walked off, Guydancefromabove vanned off
December 28 - none
December 29 - Freedom Wins vanned off, Above a Whisper walked off (saddle slipped)
December 30 - none
December 31 - Everlasting Fame walked off
January 1 - Ticketsandtomatoes vanned off, Shawn's Mr. Comet walked off, Fit to Dream vanned off, Mt. Whitney broke down, Inspired Candi vanned off
January 3 - Chestnut Affair vanned off

In thirteen days, seventeen horses had to be helped off the track [Note: Dan is counting the horse whose saddle slipped (??), and those that walked off themselves in his number]. That's not a very good ratio. It may be premature to blame the track, however. Some of these horses were big longshots, and some competed in cheap claiming races prone to sore horses. Still, it's a trend worth following.

More from Dan's Blog:

Blog question: I just wanted to comment on the races on the Tapeta course at Golden Gate. Another 2 horses fell in todays 7th race. I haven't heard anything on the condition of the Horse #7 Gaylas Gala or her jockey. If anyone knows, please respond. I can't believe there has not been any info put out yet by DRF or any other news source.
Craig

Dan Ilman: In my opinion, the incident in race seven on January 7 was a freak accident, and had nothing to do with the surface. One horse clipped heels before going down, and another fell when unable to avoid the first horse. The statistics since the middle of December are a bit disturbing, but one has to question whether it's the track, the quality and soundness of the horses in the first place, or a combination of both.

[The Bid]

What good is having 9 horses in the gate if 1 a race doesnt finish? Ive never seen as many eased walked off running lines in my life. They seemingly have an "eased but walked off" a day. If horses do not handle the tracks, horses are breaking down over the tracks, and horses are coming back sore, what more do the propoly people need? What was the point to installing these tracks if their breakdown rate is the same as dirt, they are harder to take care of, and they arent all weather? They need to be torn out and good solid dirt tracks need to be installed.

[King Glorious]

While these aren't included in the counts, I was looking at the charts for the Golden Gate races and saw a surprisingly high number of horses that had the comment "Stopped". They didn't break down and weren't eased or vanned off so they won't be included in the numbers. But that did jump out at me as unusual. I wonder how many of those horses stopped because they weren't comfortable or because they were injured in some kind of way but not serious enough to have to be eased or to have the van come out.

[Indian Charlie]

Interesting quote from pletcher today:

“A dirt surface isn’t going to discourage us any,” Pletcher said by telephone early Thursday morning from Palm Beach Downs in Florida. “In fact, we might run more horses. We like dirt.”

[Danzig]

so much for the contention that poly is what drew more east coasters. it may have been just a track change period that drew them. what they changed to may have only been secondary.