1/1 Big A - New Year's Day

[pmacdaddy]

Contemplated Santa Anita, but think I will maintain tradition and park myself on the couch and play some Aqueduct to ring in the New Year.

Late pick4 looks quite playable. Time to cap the early races a see how the track looks...

Let's throw some winners out there to get '08 started right.

[pmacdaddy]

Track is Sloppy

Changes are Up - http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

[pmacdaddy]

Here they are Nick... Decided to use Downgrade #10 in first leg to a C, upgraded #7 to a C. Cost stayed the same...Good Luck!

$1 AB
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,3,6
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 2,3,5,9
$48

$4 AA
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 2
$32

$1 A+C
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1
R9 - 2,3,5
$30

$1AC
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 5
R9 - 2
$10

$1 AC
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 8
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 2
$4

$1 AC
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 2
R9 - 2
$4

$1 AC
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 8,10
$16

Grand Total - $144

[fpsoxfan]

Wow. In race 4 the Duke of de Buque just jogged wire to wire. Garcia just hand rode all the way around. Makes me nervous about betting Mor Chances
in the fifth. Needs to be close to the pace.

[pointman]

Let's get em today Pat!

[fpsoxfan]

Roxannes Dancer should be tough with the track coming up sloppy. Small step up.. Tzipi has my interest a little.

[pmacdaddy]

$1 A+C
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1
R9 - 2,3,5
$30

$1AC
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 5
R9 - 2
$10

[/quote]

Thank God for "C" Cover tickets...

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

$1 A+C
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1
R9 - 2,3,5
$30

$1AC
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 5
R9 - 2
$10

Thank God for "C" Cover tickets...[/quote]


Very Nice. I'll be cheering you on!!

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Thank God for "C" Cover tickets...

Very Nice. I'll be cheering you on!![/quote]

Thanks. LONG way to go. The is the part of the show where I pray for chalk...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I am off the Aqueduct Speed Bias for sure...

I look at it this way......I don't assume biases. Obviously if we're in the middle of a sustained bias, and the weather hasn't changed, it's reasonable to expect it. However, in general, just handicap for an even track and see how every horses stacks up, strengths and weaknesses, and then make different cases depending on how the track is playing. In other words, understand horses you like that need a fair track, and horses you like only if there's a bias. Don't particularly marry yourself to any horse.

There will be plenty of speed types you can, and will, like on an even track. But there are also plenty of others, especially when you take price into account, who will be far less interesting on an even track.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I know that this is an extreme example -- and now that Keeneland is Polytrack, it is somewhat moot -- but did you handicap Keeneland's dirt races without assuming a bias?

Yeah, because as I said in my post that the bias was sustained.....forever.