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#1
12-17-2007, 09:54 AM
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late/early money...
it is my contention that early money on a price shot taking lets say a 15-1 down to 7/2 then bouncing back up to 11 to 1 finally evening out at 9-1 at post .. is a better read than a late money dump on a 6-1 shot taking em down to 3-1.. by this im talking about tracking the pools as the race opens and weeding out whats going on..yes i know that at lower tier tracks a few hundred will sway the odds dramaticly..talking more about bigger pools.. any thoughts on this ..yet another angle for the gambler..myself i dont use this much ..its monday so thought it would get some conversation going..
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#2
12-17-2007, 10:00 AM
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I usually consider early money to be "barn money" or wise guy/insider money. . .
Late money tends to be from batch bettors/computer guys. . . I could be wrong but that's usually how i look at it. . .
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#3
12-17-2007, 10:03 AM
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true the barns that do bet heavy..westpoint/dt...
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#4
12-17-2007, 10:07 AM
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#5
12-17-2007, 10:21 AM
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On TVG when they show the early tote, one of the sharp on-air talents will say that horse X is taking all the early money. I'll look on youbet and the horse will have $150 in the win pool.
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#6
12-17-2007, 10:52 AM
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#7
12-17-2007, 10:59 AM
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I think early win pool money that isn't supported by late action or more importantly by the exacta and prior race(s) horizontals is pretty meaningless. 80% of the win pool is put through the last couple minutes; why would early money be any kind of indicator at all? Does "the barn" need to bet early in order to get to the paddock? If the barn horse is live, they'd be foolish to splash early. At least if any sort of early money theory is true.
The real early money has been bet 30-60 minutes before and is in the DD and p-3 will pays for final legs. My own feeling is the Exacta pools lead the win pool to some extent but I've never seen anything published.
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#8
12-17-2007, 11:01 AM
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The problem with the concept of " early money " these days is absolutely pool size. Even ten years ago the first flash in NY was around $40K. Now it is often $20K and even lower in the winter. Relatively meaningless action skews the pools much more early. For instance, horses with people's names. In NY, less than 25% of the final pool is in with under 10 minutes to go because the simulcast money all comes in late. So, while perhaps there is something to be said for " early money ", it's mitigated by the changes in the tote and spread of simulcasting.
One thing to look for in NY are the sometimes crazy low exacta prices you will see sometimes, a couple times a day usually, in the early betting. This is specifically because of one bettor, a sheet player I believe, who makes $5K or more boxes right at the beginning of betting.
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#9
12-17-2007, 11:04 AM
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#10
12-17-2007, 05:12 PM
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I don't know......
I have missed scores because I ignored it, but also hit nice prices because I acted on significant drops in odds followed by a float back to close to M/L. I think this is more significant on horses where the PP's don't give you anything to be excited about. Why else is someone dumping sizeable bets on a horse that does not look like a rational contender without some insight that's not apparent in the numbers?
Of course anything can happen, but at some of the small/mid-sized tracks I think there's something to watching the tote. First flash, who knows but as the race approaches, sharp drops then floating back deserves notice IMHO I/L
__________________
"I got a home equity loan....every year I throw a big party and stick the house with the bill!" Homer Simpson
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#11
12-18-2007, 07:16 AM
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Looney: Probably some coke deal went nuts again.
__________________
Ticket Seller: All kind of balls... Bodyguard: One of his is crystal.
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#12
12-18-2007, 11:10 AM
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I don't worry about early money, and the only thing I worry about late money for is to estimate what odds that I will get at off.
I do pay attention to the logical top 3 choices and how "dead" or "live" they are on the board. couple of examples - Preakness - Hard Spun was the logical "fan money" 2nd choice. However he was "cold" on the board. Curlin dominated the tote action for 2nd choice. Hard Spun was nearly in danger of drifting up to 4th choice with circular quay. Pino runs a keiren Fallon style premature move on HS, and Curlin runs the race of a champion. American Oaks - Robe Decollete invades from Japan. She has the form to destroy this field and is the logical favorite. Conversly Aussie invader Anamato looks to be an outsider. When the money fills the pot, local Valbenny is the favorite at 2.7-1 while Robe Decollete and Anamato share 2nd&3rd choice at 3.7-1. Valbenny runs 2nd with Anamato 3rd, while Robe Decollete is completely out of the finish.
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#13
12-18-2007, 02:02 PM
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#14
12-18-2007, 02:07 PM
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Geez, the wiseguys I know bet late.
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#15
12-18-2007, 02:14 PM
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Does the simulcast money trickle in as it is bet or does it all come in at once?
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#16
12-18-2007, 02:16 PM
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#17
12-18-2007, 02:17 PM
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It's a good question. I will try to find out the answer.
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#18
12-18-2007, 02:27 PM
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#19
12-18-2007, 02:30 PM
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