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#1
10-14-2007, 04:08 AM
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10/14: Belmont (P6-$125k C/O)
Saturday was one of those days were you cap as well as possible and come away feeling short-changed when counting up the proceeds. There were winners, exotics and more, but missing the big score in the Late KEE P4 gave the afternon a negative feel despite a profit.. It happens, and if it happens too often, it can lead to frustration and bad decisions..
The day's good ideas included Steve's Double (Best Value) in the Perryville ($26 to win; $169 tri); the tabs in the KEE 8th ($276 tri); Bit of Whimsy (Most Likely) in the QE II ($15.80); I'm in Love (2nd as Best Value) in the Athenia (12-1; 3 horse box tri-$60); Cozzi Capital ($9.40) over Lady Digby/Snow Cone in the Calder Oaks; Calico Bay ($13.80) over Silk Ridge in the My Dear Girl; and Bold Hawk ($10) in the Hawthorne Derby. Hope you did well! They've got $125,000 to start the P6 at Belmont Sunday, and as Gus says to Woodrow in Lonesome Dove, "So what's keepin' ya?" BELMONT PARK P3: 5th, 6th, 8th P4: 7th P6: 5th Grd Slm: 6th Superfectas: 7th, 10th 5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f Odd state-bred filly event as there appear to be several here with some actual talent, adding to confusion.. Seems spot for early spread to ensure survival..NOTE: As bad as Serpe's #1 (POE) Cruisewear looks on paper, fact she moves into MSW company from MDN CLM's telling; Serpe gets BIG improvement from his 2nd time starters (Not necessarily wins in the 2nd out, but big improvement...) Best Value: #10 Nicole Cat 5-1: Improvement off debut may be good enough.. Most Likely: #8 Peleliu 4-1: Wes Ward firster.. What else do we need say? Exotics Use: #7 Queen of Protocol 8-1; #4 C. T. Phone Home 3-1 6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT Nothing like a 'mystery horse' (Pletcher's 1st NA #3 Spanish Harlem) to gum up the works; Came from A. O'Brien string, and though crushed at The Curragh in the Derby, was close 2nd in Grp. III which is akin to top US ALW's. Seems wise to include in the Sextet.. Best Value: #4 Good Prospect 15-1: Leah's bargain state bred can impact this.. Most Likely: #6 Pick Six 5-1: Improves post slightly and adds blinks.. Exotics Use: #1 Oedipus O'Neal 7-2: Followed HAW Derby Bold Hawk home last.. 7th: CLM, 3+, 6f In low level claimer where many have faced each other in various spots, be eager to find new face, and Strummer fits the bill.. Best Value: #3 Explosive Count 4-1 Most Likely: #4 Strummer 3-1 Exotics Use: #2 Favorite Sweep 5-2 Super Add: #7 Dynergy 10-1 8th: 1st Xtra Heat H., F&M-3+, 6f-T Best Value: #3 GENUINE DEVOTION 6-1: Has kept top company; Rested since big run.. Most Likely: #4 Society Hostess 2-1: Stunning Monrovia winner came from clouds.. Exotics Use: #2 Stormy Kiss 5-2: Has been punchless late in last pair.. 9th: The Chelsey Flower, F&M-3+, 9f-IT Hard to grasp the ML appeal of fave Miracle Moment other than loose on the lead concern. If collared, should get swallowed. Playing against and will protect on P6 back up ticket only.. (NOTE: With scratch of #6 Inda, appears Miracle Moment has to be used.. Best Value: #5 CALLA LILY 9-2: Steady Darley miss from Tom A. may be in bloom.. Most Likely: #7 My Rachel 7-2: Appears a mediocrity to us, but competetive.. Exotics Use: #6 SCR SUB: #8 Miracle Moment 3-1 10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f P6 ends like it starts, with harder-than-it-looks maiden affair.. McLaughlin red (#8) could jump up, and Asmussen product (#9) yet another candidate.. Pletcher (#6) and Clement (#2) send well-bred firsters, but the Albertrani-Darley (#1) with Castro is the one I want to include.. Best Value: #5 Shop Glack 15-1: Chief adds blinks/L; Now or never.. Most Likely: #3 Melissa Jo 7-2: J. Jerkens gets results with 2nd timers.. Exotics Use: #7 Tazarine 3-1 Super Add: #1 Music Note 10-1 <$50 P4 Play: 7: 3-4-7 8: 3-4 9: 5-7 10: 3-5-7-8 3x2x2x4 = $48 <$100 P6 Play (Main Ticket): 5: 8-10 6: 3-6 7: 3-4 8: 3 9: 5-7 10: 3-5-8 2x2x2x1x2x3 = 48 x $2 = $96 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-14-2007 at 07:57 PM. 
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#3
10-14-2007, 01:48 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
10-14-2007, 05:17 PM
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Steve,
Sure glad you liked Genuine Devotion so much today. We (ptman, ltj) took down the BEL pick4 keying her and going a bit deeper elsewhere. Gets our group's bankroll in fine shape for Breeders Cup. Thanks!!!
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#5
10-14-2007, 05:56 PM
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Steve, I was surprised that you did not like Acclimate today, had the trifecta angles of dropping, cutting back and blinks off, plus Luzzi stayed there. Thanks again, playing your picks makes this game both profitable and, more importantly, really enjoyable!
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#6
10-14-2007, 08:29 PM
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Congratulations! $1,760.00! Makes up for yesterday's heartbreaker... Loved Genuine Devotion today given no one looked to be able to go with her... Thought Pick Six, Melissa Jo and Calla Lily were all strong plays as well on the day, but it proved no help in the P6 & P4.. Thrilled for you guys and greatly appreciate being of assistance in any way... Re: Acclimate, I knew I was in trouble that race. Couldn't get a hold on it at all.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
10-14-2007, 08:22 PM
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Hybrid Mode
