SA: 'Ribbon'; 'Leaf'; 'G-Wood'..

[Kasept]

3rd (1:30) Yellow Ribbon S. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Mauralakana (FR) Espinoza V 123 L
2 Nashoba's Key Talamo J 123 L
3 Memorette Smith M E 123 L
4 Imagine Nakatani C S 123 L
5 Black Mamba (NZ) Baze T C 123 L
6 Citronnade Flores D R 123 L



7th (3:30) Oak Leaf S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Set Play Blanc B 122 L
2 Wild Baby Girl Pedroza M A 122 L
3 Sunday Geisha Nakatani C S 122 L
4 The Golden Noodle Potts C L 122 L
5 Cry and Catch Me Smith M E 122 L
6 Runforthemoneybaby Baze T C 122 L
7 Gentle Audrey Talamo J 122 L
8 Golden Doc A Garcia M 122 L
9 Izarra Espinoza V 122 L
10 Tasha's Miracle Flores D R 122 L
11 P. S. U. Grad Baze M C 122 L



9th (4:30) Goodwood H. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Arson Squad Espinoza V 124 L
2 Hello Sunday (FR) Blanc B 124 L
3 Lewis Michael Baird E T 124 L
4 Tiago Smith M E 124 L
5 Porfido (CHI) Rosario J 124 Blk-On L
6 Big Booster Baze M C 124 L
7 Lava Man Nakatani C S 124 L
8 Awesome Gem Flores D R 124 L
9 A. P. Xcellent Valdivia J Jr 124 L
10 Wanna Runner Baze T C 124 L

[letswastemoney]

Nashoba's Key FTW

[Indian Charlie]

Nk and citronnade
the two harlan's holiday fillies on the outside in the oakleaf
lewis michael in the dogwood.

[cloud_break]

Does it seem odd to anyone else that Lewis Michael is traveling to CA for $500k, and Student Council is traveling to Chi-town for $500k? Though I guess Catalano wanted to stay on the tires, but why wouldn't Cerin???

[cloud_break]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Interesting point. I just looked at the entries and Student Council is running under Steve Asmussen's name on Saturday, maybe that is why.

I just looked a bit closer and you're right. I hadn't read anything about a transfer since the Pacific Classic. Might be a one race deal b/c of licensing, maybe???

[miraja2]

A race like the Goodwood is a very tough one to handicap I think. So many of these horses are moving from the ridiculously slow Del Mar poly to the relatively unknown Santa Anita Cushion. One would presume that the new surface would play like the Hollywood Cushion, and that the form these West Coasters showed there would be the best thing to look at. But then I read where several people (including Victor Espinoza) have said that the Cushion at Santa Anita is significantly different than the surface at Hollywood.
Then you have a horse like Lewis Michael who - like most of these - is going from poly to cushion, but he is coming from the Arlington poly which is a lot different than the Del Mar poly. I know his trainer thinks Lewis Michael is the "best polytrack horse in the world" but how will that form transfer to the cushion? Also, Lewis Michael's big "G2" win in his last start came against absolutely nobody.
Like I said, it seems like a tough one to me.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cloud_break

Does it seem odd to anyone else that Lewis Michael is traveling to CA for $500k, and Student Council is traveling to Chi-town for $500k? Though I guess Catalano wanted to stay on the tires, but why wouldn't Cerin???

Student Council already lucked up and got his grade one win. If the SA track plays more like Hollywood than Del Mar, he'd go back to being a non-factor. Instead, he can go to Chicago and face a bunch of hens and roosters for the same price and be favored. Meanwhile, Lewis Michael doesn't have his grade one yet and I'm sure his connections saw Student Council whip the field in the Pacific Classic so they are taking a chance that the track could cancel some of the main contenders out like Del Mar did. If he takes to the track, he may never get an easier chance for a grade one on the "dirt" than he would here.

[geeker2]

Man..I look for Lava Man to run huge in the Goodwin and if he wins this or runs good..I would say they send him to the BC Classic...where I think he has a legitimate chance to win...the Monmouth track should suit him just fine..you might get 10/15-1 on him..the East Coast bias should help his odds...he could be worth a ducat

If the track plays like it did today then A.P. Xcellent has a great chance to go gate to wire.

[letswastemoney]

In last year's BC Classic, Lava Man's odds were about equal to Invasor. So what was this about a bias...

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Out of curiousity, considering Lava Man has been absolutely awful everytime he has shipped anywhere outside of California, how will he have a legitimate shot in the Classic?

I think you have to look at Monmouth Park..it is different that the other "shipped to" surfaces he has raced on...MP is probably more like the California Tracks than any other track he has shipped to..and at some value..I think he has a shot..but he does have to put in a good effort in the Goodwin or I will be off the bandwagon rather quickly.

Originally Posted by geeker2

I think you have to look at Monmouth Park..it is different that the other "shipped to" surfaces he has raced on...MP is probably more like the California Tracks than any other track he has shipped to..and at some value..I think he has a shot..but he does have to put in a good effort in the Goodwin or I will be off the bandwagon rather quickly.

What if he bombs in the Goodwin but wins the Goodwood?

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Seriously? Good luck with that one.

Thanks..but it is still a long way till the BC and I might end up on Curlin or Hard Spun or AGS...but tonight after a few beers, a glass of wine and a Cigar..Lava Man looked good....but so did the 40 year old waitress...

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

What if he bombs in the Goodwin but wins the Goodwood?

LOL..then I'll say it was a Goodwin in the Goodwood...dam spell checker!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Man..I look for Lava Man to run huge in the Goodwin and if he wins this or runs good..I would say they send him to the BC Classic...where I think he has a legitimate chance to win...the Monmouth track should suit him just fine..you might get 10/15-1 on him..the East Coast bias should help his odds...he could be worth a ducat

His trainer has said that the Classic is out no matter what and if Lava Man does go to NJ, it would be for one of the mile races.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

His trainer has said that the Classic is out no matter what and if Lava Man does go to NJ, it would be for one of the mile races.

He won't have a chance in those races either. Anybody that bets on this horse outside of California just hasn't been paying attention. When he ships, it doesn't matter what kind of surface he runs on. He just loses badly.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Also, Lewis Michael's big "G2" win in his last start came against absolutely nobody.

You're right. He should fit right in against California's Grade I horses.




He's going to walk.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

You're right. He should fit right in against California's Grade I horses.



He's going to walk.

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.

dem's fightin words.

you better check yourself.

[letswastemoney]

Tiago is proven on the east. I believe a 3rd vs. Rags and Curlin should beat this mediocore west coast group.....

Tiago fires a 100 beyer consistently enough and that should be good enough to win this.