9/12: Belmont (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Good to be getting back into a normal routine.. Nice enough set of races at Belmont Wednesday with an excellent listed stake feature including E Z Warrior and Tiz Wonderful and a perfect fall day expected..

TRAINER ANGLES THE LAST REFUGE FOR VALUE HUNTERS...

We talk frequently on "At the Races" about trainer patterns being the last hidden angle available to horseplayers, and there is a handicapping note in that vain in today's 5th (John Hertler's #7 Classic Marilyn)..

In 2006, Hertler sent Mike Francesa's homebred out in an open company $40k claimer on closing day at Saratoga (9/4) where she was 2nd by a length plus at 19-1. 10 days later at Belmont, she was 2nd by a head at 15-1 back versus state-breds (OC 30k/N2X).

A year later (8/31/07) at the Spa, Hertler totally repeated the 2006 pattern spotting Classic Marilyn in an open company $35k CLM/N3L where she was 4th by a length plus at 14-1. 12 days later at Belmont, he AGAIN puts her back versus state-breds in the SAME OC 30k/N2X! She is 12-1 (ML), and though not the likeliest winner in a well-matched group, figures to be in the mix at a good price based on similar form and pattern she totes into this affair.


BELMONT PARK (4th-9th)


Selections Key:

1. "Best Value win candidate"
2. "Most Likely Winner"
A. "Possibility/Exotics Use"
B. "Exotics Inclusion"


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, P6)

1. #9 PRINCESS WESTLY 5-1: Romans drops bay from good MSW heat.. 2nd
2. #2 Granny Franny 5-2: Weaver Grand Slam returns to taggers; Has been close.. 4th
A. #3 Not Now 3-1 6th
B. #7 Ivory Star 6-1 10th


5th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, GS)

1. #7 Classic Marilyn 12-1: As detailed above; Sitting on a good effort.. 4th
2. #3 MY NINA ROSE 5-1: Sciacca on fire last 3 weeks; ITM 10 of 16 this lawn.. 5th
A. #6 Follow My Dream 3-1 WON
B. #1 (POE) Cori's Star 7-2 3rd


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

NOTE: 2-1 favorite (#7) Seeking No More appears grossly underlaid here.. One of many in with a chance, but hardly embraceable at that a.m. tote.. 'T2D' a plus move for Hushion; worth including in multis/exotics, but looks like a classic 'bet against' as win prospect..

1. #5 Straight Blush 5-1: Leah finished Spa strong; careerish MDN decent this oval.. 10th
2. #2 Final Authority 9-2: Gelding by Judge TC improved markedly last time.. 4th
A. #7 Seeking No More 2-1 7th
B. #6 He's Tough 6-1 8th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P3)

1. #4 Jacinth 15-1: Goldberg as savvy as they come; Turf bow last in range.. 5th
2. #10 EMIRATES TO DUBAI 5-1: No chance we get 5-1 on emerging Godolphin rednut.. 4th
A. #6 Prince Rahy 7-2 2nd
B. #9 Sea of Trees 15-1 10th


8th: More Than Ready, 3yo, 1m (DD)

1. #6 Tiz Wonderful 5-2: Working way back; had impossible Dandy trip.. 2nd
2. #4 E Z Warrior 7-5: Game 3rd after gate whack in the Bishop.. 4th
3. #3 SCR


9th: MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

1. #10 Brogue 6-1: Shut down in midst of rally at Spa.. 2nd
2. #5 SAM'S MARQUE 8-1: Ryerson sharp; bay fastest if turf intro to liking.. 8th
A. #8 Sleeping Giant 3-1 WON
B. #12 Cherokee Flare 4-1 6th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6-7
7: 10
8: 4-6
9: 5-8-10-12

4x1x2x4 = $32 (after scratch in 8th)


<$100 P6 Play:

4: 2-9
5: 3
6: 2-5-6-7
7: 10
8: (3-SCR) 4-6
9: 5-10

2x1x4x1x2x2 = 32 x $2 = $64


Good luck!
Steve