DERBY 133: Analysis/Selections

[Kasept]

133rd Running of the Kentucky Derby

Odds are as of close of racing Friday..

Derby may or may not come up wet, with improved forecast.. Pace looks to be 'typical' here with draw sprinkling send candidates around liberally.. As always, those in contact with the leaders into the turn stand to fare best, and the quality closers signed on seem to have enough target here to get involved in the exotics..

1.SEDGEFIELD (45-1): Second Miller-Silverton Hill entrant with Dominican, tries main first time after building nice lawn resume; Chased Hard Spun home in Lane's End and takes flight from rail under Leparoux, seemingly well cast in role of rabbit for stablemate..

2. CURLIN (7-1): Asmussen purchase after scintillating February debut/maiden win for Helen Pitts tries to turn Derby lore on its' ear after demolishing suspect fields at Ozark spa; Has earned Rose Blanket type figures winning trio of starts by combined 28 lengths, but gets variety of tests in this spot; Well-matched with Albarado in irons, Smart Strike son via DepMin mare will have to be very special to ace this; Trainer cleverly put stablemates shoulder-to-shoulder to limit potential break issues; A key or toss type at the windows, and we're going against..

3. ZANJERO (39-1): Inclined to take plus view of second Asmussen runner at plus price off series of grind-it-out board hits versus division's top players; Returns to Bridgmohan who helped Cherokee Run colt clear initial pair of conditions last fall, including ALW score this oval; Has ticked up the figs scales, pairing as he goes, and has been impressive in person leading up to Saturday; Out of A.P. Indy mare, should relish extra yardage when others gasp; Using underneath..

4. STORM IN MAY (20-1): Can't fault low profile operator Kaplan for taking wild swing at the fences with this restricted (sprint) stake winner who found himself a surprising 2nd behind Curlin at Oaklawn; Early money on him a bit stunning..

5. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY (18-1): The other Kaplan lines up next to stablemate and curiously has found Friday backers; $17,000 purchase an easy crossout..

6. COWTOWN CAT (16-1): Suddenly a 'now' horse around the Downs, handsomely-bred WinStar buy ($1.5MM) emerged late on Trail scene with Gotham-Illinois heroics against sub-par groups; Has reacted to his three fig jumps, but should enjoy it wet and will absolutely run all day; Appeal hinges on value as he won at Chicago in even fraction manner that typically plays well in this race..

7. STREET SENSE (9-2): Juvy champ a swarthy figure these parts last 10 days turning in final work that wagged pundit tongues and had Borel grinning; Comes into this on identical trajectory of Breeders' Cup launch, and figures to sit perfect trip; Nafzger delayed retirement for this moment after recognizing potential greatness immediately in Tafel's homebred Street Cry colt, and built career on targeting races; Most likely winner with connections no one would mind seeing win..

8. HARD SPUN (18-1): 'One of the ones' early on the Trail after winning minor league-ish trio by 20 lengths, was readily dismissed after lone career loss in wide trip/pace chase Southwest and curious handling thereafter; Dismissed casual foes at Cincinnati 6 weeks ago but bypassed Bluegrass; Is bred in the purple for voyage, and while super hot drill a concern of many, fast horses work fast; Danzig son has the tools to be at or near front at eighth pole, a consistent barometer for Derby board hit & laurels..

9. LIQUIDITY (47-1): Caught our attention with HOL Futurity and Sham placements in last 2yo/first 3yo start; Has struggled since, especially away from home, and O'Neill doffs blinks/changes mouthpiece on Reddam's Tiznow bay looking for reversal; Is lone entrant in race with Maiden tally a sole win; Seems impossible to endorse for anything more than deepest tri/super tix with a plus slop pedigree and on knowledge that he has run 2 very credible races and is hands of high percentage horsemen..

10. TEUFELSBERG (45-1): Heavily raced $8,000 Sanders colt has been remarkably game doing everything asked except give Sunday pony rides to tots; Gives over-eager conditioner her wish as fodder for field after failing to finish in Blue Grass despite stunningly torpid fractions..

11. BWANA BULL (34-1): Another that appears over-matched and whose connections vacillated mightily; This typically not a race to approach hesitatingly; Respect Hollendorfer, but SA Derby flop left us no Cause to Believe..

12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (12-1): Quixotic Tagg bay does everything wrong and looks like meltdown candidate before 150,000, but remains less than two lengths from perfection; Wood effort more professional, and ability to shrug multiple challenges at Ozone Park a distinctive plus; Despite obvious talent, gets left off our prospective Quad nearly every time we construct it; Candidate for cover win bet if odds stay North of $20..

13. SAM P. (45-1): Red son of BC Classic winner and Storm Cat mare from Team Todd,gives impression of being a 'good' horse, and removes goggles after bizarre pace attendance at Arcadia in last; Dominguez rides back, and may now know how to better employ stalker-closer; Could use speed boost, and while not the worst price inclusion available, should be a better horse later in the year..

14. SCAT DADDY (6-1): Last thing we needed after warming to plucky J-Berg colt was news of sunrise semesters in bar shoes; Hoof issues KO many a Derby prospect, and while admiring the old-fashioned path this Scatuorchio-Tabor purchase employed to arrive here, am back to concerns of his speed and finish; Taking a pass at what is starting out as underlaid number..

15. TIAGO (9-1): Giacomo redux came with flying SA Derby finish to stun and earn KY trip, but has regressed off both prior big tries; Son of one of our favorite sires shouldn't have developed this quickly; Loved Shirreffs handling of his half brother, but that one peaked on Derby Day, and this lightly-raced colt may have already turned in his biggest spring run..

16. CIRCULAR QUAY (14-1): Though saddled with plethora of Derby voodoos, erasing incident-marred Risen Star 5th leaves this Tabor homebred, (and son of their previous Derby winner T-Gulch), with 6/4-2-0 mark and placements behind just Great Hunter and Street Sense; LA Derby win over very good Ketchikan a big positive; Curiously will wear sire's Derby saddlecloth for late run under #1 Pletcher monteback, and bore his way onto our tickets after a.m. workmate's facile Oaks win Friday; Provides value at anything close to early tab, and can impact with minimum of traffic fiascos..

17. STORMELLO (47-1): Bill Currin's game rednut yet to run fast enough to invade best here, and silly attempt to prove something with twin trips to FL didn't help his cause; Wouldn't mind it wet, but likely distance-challenged; Adds to pace picture, but can't see him staying on past 9th panel..

18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (20-1): Regally-bred $1.1MM WinStar buy by Funny Cide's pop rushed final prep try and it showed; Ridden strangely last pair by Johnny V., move to GoGo and return to sustained run style should prove plus; Gutted out duel with top choice at Oldsmar, Pletcher star never off board career and not as hindered by wide post as some; Needs perfect trip for win, but still an easy choice for inclusion..

19. DOMINICAN (25-1): Intriguing Miller Blue Grass winner another not doomed by extreme launch, as patient Bejarano has clicked with closer who has sparkled last pair; Those citing PolyTrack 3/3 missing fact that this is his first start on dirt since elimination of troublesome testes, and at 20-1 tote, is highly employable; Needs another forward move, usually not something you want to count on in this race, but a super/tri bottom must..

20. GREAT HUNTER (17-1): Eased into the Blue Grass by O'Neill, this Gr. I winner was mauled by Teufelsberg in a bizarre stretch run that raised more questions than it answered; Has picked up the training pace, but needs a return to his Lewis win two back to contend here under Nakatani; 2nd PA-bred in field (with Hard Spun) has faced top class competition, a plus stretchout sire in Aptitude and should provide some value; Can't fault those hoping to get a good one out of him here..


SELECTIONS:

1. #7 Street Sense
2. #18 Any Given Saturday
A. #8 Hard Spun
B. #16 Circular Quay

LONGSHOTS/EXOTICS ADD CANDIDATES: #3 Zanjero; #19 Dominican


Enjoy Derby 133! Good luck..
Steve

[pointman]

Been waiting for this, thanks Steve, excellent analysis. I still do think that Curlin can win this race and I have to have him on my tickets, but I like your other selections. Maybe I am biased to Curlin since I was at the Arkansas Derby, but live he was just really impressive. Good luck to all!!

[dellinger63]

Nafzger delayed retirement for this moment after recognizing potential greatness immediately in Tafel's homebred Street Cry colt, and built career on targeting races; Most likely winner with connections no one would mind seeing win..

So right and considering Mr. Tafel calls Barrington, IL home Arlington will be rooting Street home. Was great seeing live racing for the first time since Jan.

[Cajungator26]

Great rundown, Steve...

[tycharles01]

Always great info!!!!!! THANKS

Where is Cowtown Cat in the longshot??

Steve - Good work. I have the exact same order on my picks. Would like to see AGS hit the top for a better price. Can t believe we are getting 21-1 on a horse with such nice connections. Good luck all Max

[Bogey]

Nice Work Steve,

Street Sense
Cowtown Cat
Scat Daddy
Circurlar Quay

Good Racing Luck

[3kings]

Steve,

We will win or trash the tickets together. The only difference in the 6 I'm using is No Biz in stead of CQ. I'll also use Cowtown Cat insted of Dominican on a few tickets


Thanks for posting your picks and goog luck.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

churchill downs plays of intrest to be used with who ya like.

race 1

pp 3 steves temptation

race 2

pp 7 hargill

race 3

pp 9 royal diva

race 4

pp 6 lumberjack cat

race 5

whos left..lol

race 6

pp 7 take the ribbon

race 7

pp 11 suavness

race 8

pp 6 morner

race 9

pp 4 danzon

race 10

pp 18 any given

race 11

pp 6 purley wild

race 12

pp 1 mrs laken................good luck dters

[Clip-Clop]

Anybody else out there think Dominican will win this thing or at least fall right in with Street Sense???

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

race 7

pp 11 suavness

race 9

pp 4 danzon

Those are the last horses I kicked out of my pick-4 in their respective races. They both look good at good prices!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

there ya go brian.. the ride i just got on the 3 is any indication its gonna be along day.........

[Zaf]

Nice Job Steve !!!

Winner on top , exacta !!!

You are a great handicapper !

[golfer]

Hooves, I also liked Suaveness.. his not getting up meant that Einstein's failure only cost me a $2000 pick 4 instead of a $15, 000 one