First set of KY Derby odds from Battaglia

whodey17 · #1 05-02-2007, 10:55 AM

Curlin 7-2
Street Sense 4-1
Circular Quay 8-1
Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
Scat Daddy 10-1
Any Given Saturday 12-1
Hard Spun 15-1
Great Hunter 15-1
Tiago 15-1
Sam P. 20-1
Cowtown Cat 20-1
Dominican 20-1
Liquidity 30-1
Storm in May 30-1
Teuflesberg 30-1
Zanjero 30-1
Stormello 30-1
Sedgefield 50-1
Bwana Bull 50-1
Imawildandcrazyguy 50-1

Cajungator26 · #2 05-02-2007, 10:56 AM

I can only hope that Scat Daddy is 10-1. *Fingers crossed.*

Scurlogue Champ · #3 05-02-2007, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can only hope that Scat Daddy is 10-1. *Fingers crossed.*

Likewise

jpops757 · #4 05-02-2007, 11:02 AM

No biggie . I wonder the big differance between AGS and SS. I think most of the 10-15/1s will drop a little and the 2 shorter odds colts will creep up. Maybe I give AGS to much credit for his stretch duel with SS.

randallscott35 · #5 05-02-2007, 11:17 AM

Cajun, you will get your 10-1. Maybe 15-1. Trust me.

cakes44 · #6 05-02-2007, 11:32 AM

The biggest differences between SS and AGS will be post position and SS's affinity for Churchill.

Buffymommy · #7 05-02-2007, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can only hope that Scat Daddy is 10-1. *Fingers crossed.*

I was thinking the same thing!

I am also liking Zanjero at 30-1!

Buffymommy · #8 05-02-2007, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

The biggest differences between SS and AGS will be post position and SS's affinity for Churchill.

It would be kinda nice to have an Affirmed/Alydar rivialry again huh?

brianwspencer · #9 05-02-2007, 12:24 PM

Maybe Dunbar can comment, and maybe I'm nitpicking, or maybe my math is wrong -- but doesn't this line have a takeout of over 30%?

LARHAGE · #10 05-02-2007, 12:54 PM

I love Hard Spun at 15-1!!!!!

ArlJim78 · #11 05-02-2007, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

For mathematical reasons, I don't get too involved thinking about the morning line, but if Great Hunter is at a fat price on Saturday... he looked really good in his three-year-old comebacker and throw out the Polytrack result.

I see some value to that angle, not a bad play.

Fuofa · #12 05-02-2007, 01:14 PM

Hard Spun at 15-1 looks like a good price. If T-Berg can set some nice fractions I am going to put together a trifecta wheel with Hard Spun on top and Cq/Tiago/C Cat/Great Hunter to fill out the rest, and hope for the best. If Curlin is a freak, I am going to lose some money.

hockey2315 · #13 05-02-2007, 01:35 PM

These odds will change drastically when the pools open in my opinion. . .

Scurlogue Champ · #14 05-02-2007, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

The biggest differences between SS and AGS will be post position and SS's affinity for Churchill.

Another difference is that AGS is a one-paced dog and will get 10th and Borel will get Street Sense on the outside of horses where he will hang in the stretch and finish 6th by a nose.

sumitas · #15 05-02-2007, 02:01 PM

I'm liking Scat Daddy at 10-1 and NBLSB.

brianwspencer · #16 05-02-2007, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

This concept was discussed a couple of weeks ago, I believe. My feeling was that the morning line odds of each race's entrants should equal 100 percent plus the takeout. Another poster had a similar thought, but the total might have been higher.

In either event, I don't think oddsmakers think this way.

Gotcha. I sort of followed that conversation, but wasn't sure what the general consensus was about it.