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#1
05-01-2007, 12:35 AM
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Performance Figures & the Derby
As I've previously stated, I prefer Dr Roman's PF's to Beyers...another thread questioned the possibility of a sub-100 Beyer for this year's winner...I would likewise say no! Looking at the PF's for Derby winners since 1999 (Charismatic) we see
99...-48 00...-57 01...-75 02...-61 03...-60 04...-63 05...-48 06...-60 Looking at those numbers, one would expect a winning PF around -60 this year although lower is possible given the prep results. Here is an interesting note for what it may be worth, in 8 of the last 9 years, the Derby winner had a PF of -54 or better in a 3yo prep of 8f or longer (Giacomo being the exception). This year, 6 horses meet that standard: Circular Quay...-65 Any Given Sat...-60 Street Sense...-60 Nobiz...-55 Dominican...-54 Zanjero...-54 Again...just something to think about!
__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!" 
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#3
05-01-2007, 12:46 AM
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__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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