Santa Anita - Thurs 2/22

[Rootdog1]

Actually is a decent wagering card, although I wouldnt say we are going to see good racing....if that makes sense.

The early pk4 looks like it can be hit with a cheap ticket, and a chance to make a little profit to roll into the late pk4 which looks a little more difficult. In the 8th, I like four of them and three of them are 20-1......hop on Scuds, got some high priced goats for tomorrow!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,I will start with a possibly half-retarded girl in the last.Not necessarily for tomorrow,but who knows.Her name is NOBODYWANTSMUD,and she was green as could be in her 1st race.She drops to m32kcl now.The reason I think she may have some tiny bit of ability is because of her dam.I remember this AKINEMOD.She was a runner.Seems like she wasn't able to run that often,or something physical kept her back.Anyways,she had 6 wins from 3yrs-4yrs(231k.)I am pretty sure she was 1 turn n' fast.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think we need to figure out if Amazin Blue,Celtic Fable,or Kalookan Dancer are gunna get beat tomorrow.That is the key to the late p4.The last is open.

[Rootdog1]

yes sir my friend, I was thinking the same thing.

5) Amazing Blue looks very tough. I like El Falcon as well, but will obviously need to improve but could going two turns. Dart River looks like a speed type that will fade but he could be dangerous if allowed to stroll on the lead. Which could be the case unless Beyond Boundries guns for the lead. Forest Lair is interesting, not sure of how he will take to dirt but is bred for it. I am thinking of using Amazing Blue and El Falcon

6) Tough 5.5f Race. Celtic Fable looks best but there is a TON of speed in here. Fortunate Prohpet on the 1 week rest looks dangerous based on back figs, the BIG drop, and the cut back to 5.5f. Still not sure he is good enough but he will be gunning it. R Spring Affair looks like a contender on Speed figs, but these northen shippers from No-Name trainers usually dont produce. Still he looks like he could stalk, which is important in here. Her Red has only had 3 works for his comeback and Hess is only 9% with 90+ days away, so looks like he will need a race. Dixie's Ruler treated us very good when he came from off the pace at $16k to win at 25-1. He had an great work on the 18th and looks to be holding form, BUT I am not sure I like the cut back of 1f here and he is one of the few moving UP in class. Still, appealing pace play. Glitternmeporridge is interesting to me also at 8-1. Cut back from 6.5f and has speed but doesnt have to have the lead, but something tells me Dutrow had this guy messed up. Gryder is Koriner's go-to-guy and he is on the #1 - bad sign.
In the end, Celtic Fable is probably good enough to hold off the other speed and win, but it wont be easy. I think I will use Celtic Fable and Dixies Ruler, and maybe Fortunate Prophet. Use a backup ticket singling Celtic here and Amazing Blue in the 5th.

7) Yellow Sheet looks good here, as there will be pace for her to run at and both speed horses have a tendency to stop. Mullins wouldnt have shipped her to Gulfstream if she wasnt doing well, and she got beat bad but did break very slowly. But, you have to use either Kalookan Dancer or Perfect Rhyme in case Yellow doesnt get there in time. It is possible Mameselle Aries can sit off the speed and pick up the pieces when the speed backs up and Yellow doesnt get there in time, but I just am not sold she is good enough.

In the end going with Kalookan and Yellow.

8) Wide Open, and the first timers look cheap but have a ton of speed. Summer Jade cost $22k and is working well, and Aguirre hits at 14% and she is 20-1. Parinaz looks good as well at 12-1. Dropping after being away 5 months. Her first 3 races were good enough to win this, and she is working very well. Any Afternoon is cutting back from 7f and been drilling up a storm since her first race. Woth a play at 10-1. Cheryl's Sidekick is firster that looks like cheap speed and a cheaper trainer, but she has a string of very good works and looks fast and fit. Onenintyeight at 6-1 has been away 8 months and drops from MSW company, well bred and fast works so worth inlcuding. Chavez and Marlow hit at 33% together. Youaremyluckystar at 9/2 will get over played but looks like a decent horse, and Enriquez end here rather then the Tommy Town entry. Finally, Nobodywantsmud at 20-1 is a MUST use. Bet down to 15-1 in MSW company she just plan lost her head and stdied several times. She is quick and I love the switch to Pedroza.

Like 1 @ 20-1 / 2 @ 12-1 / 4 @ 10-1 / 5 @ 20-1 / 7 @ 6-1 / (maybe) 11 @ 9/2 / 12 @ 20-1

[Rootdog1]

1) Really, Really, Really bad race. I LOVE Princess Integrity here @ 6-1. Like Sidepocket @ 4-1 (she was 96-1 last time out, that is how bad this race is!!). Prob have to use Madera Royal @ 8/5 but she has been away 11 months, but all her previous races would win this. Is she ready? No way I single her.

2) Mullins confusing here....Beyondcomp drops from $50k to $25k off two good races. Something smells here, and not crazy about moving up from 5.5f up to 6f plus Flores gets off him (after riding him 5 times straight) and gets on Outside Looking. If she is right, then she just has to put away Curious Cody up front and rolls. If she stops in the lane, then Outside Looking in wins it.

3) toughest race in the early pk4. Using Silber, Trick A Cat, Key Rose, and Guest (if I grow a pair I will sub in Mohawk at 30-1 for Key Rose).

4) Leesider looks much the best at 8-5, but using Kineticat Yankee also. He is a first timer going a mile, which I dont like but Espinoza and Cecil hit at 50% for a +$5 ROI. A reach, but most others in here are moving up from claiming to MSW. Peace Accord is interesting as it appears the son of Betrando will take to the route and Gomez picks up the mount, but not sure she is classy enough and she got beat by a bad group last time out. The only other one that I may use in pk3's is Avvenimento at 12-1, as she ran decent down the hill race first time out and could surprise.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,in race 7,Kalookan Dancer has too many dumb-chick issues for me to like her.She ran one good race,but even in that race,she broke poorly.I don't see her clearing Perfect Rhyme.P.R. did not want to let Overly Tempting go by,but O.T. finally wore her down.P.R. went hard with bed n' breakfast(whatever the b n' b name is,) and put that one away,but couldn't hold off 2who got much better trips.Since Monteleone has had her,she has run 3 very good races.I SNGL her,or use with 3 or4 others(not KALOOKAN.)

[Rootdog1]

I can see your point, I really can. My thought is Kalookan has only ran once on dirt, and she ran very well. I think she appreciates the move back to dirt and if she can run her MSW race she wins. PR has beat MCLM25k an $40kAllow and I just dont know how good she is....

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

PR has beat MCLM25k an $40kAllow and I just dont know how good she is....

Well,let's not be at all mistaken about Perfect Rhyme.Anything done before Monteleone can be totally tossed.This BUMP lady either can't train,or doesn't use the enhancements that her peers use.So,1st time that she really raced was in her M65KCL win(by almost 7 lengths.)To me,that is like a straight maiden win.When you run 7 lengths better than maiden claimers,.......You are no maiden claimer.She prooved this by beating the winners of maiden claimer races by 4 lengths(in her 2nd real start of her life.)Let me tell you that I think Overly Tempting is a pretty good CAL-BRED filly,and she didn't just go right by P.R. in the stretch on Jan 11th.Even though she got a perfect trip(and P.R. was in an all out brawl up front) Overly Tempting had to really work to get by P.R. this P.R. was very game.KALOOKAN has never broken well from the gate.She has to get to the front by rushing up,and she has only been able to make this early lead 1 out of 4 times.You're saying the return to dirt will get her to this early lead.I will play along with you on this,but she will not be 1 1/2 length clear.She may get clear of P.R. by a 1/2 length etc.,and P.R. will try to engage her into the turn.This is not Silver Z(the horse she had to hold off in her maiden win.)So far,Kalookan hasn't done well when other speed has been present,and P.R. has performed in game manner when confronted by other speed.I am not saying P.R. will win,but I do believe she f's it up for Kalookan.This Walter Solis trainer won't be on my ticket.If she wins....I am simply wrong.So be it.

[Rootdog1]

Not sure which pp's your looking at, but mine show PR broke her madien in a MC25k not 65k. The last three races for Kalookan the early splits are 21 / 44 and the same can not be said for PR. Although, I will admit that I side with you that PR is a fighter and it is very possible Kalookan is NOT. Like I said, I am not arguing with you as I like both.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Not sure which pp's your looking at, but mine show PR broke her madien in a MC25k not 65k. The last three races for Kalookan the early splits are 21 / 44 and the same can not be said for PR. Although, I will admit that I side with you that PR is a fighter and it is very possible Kalookan is NOT. Like I said, I am not arguing with you as I like both.

Yes,25kmcl,and that looks like where Silver Z(THE HORSE WHO RAN 2ND TO Kalookan) is gunna have to go, also.She finished about a half length in front of Proud Cece on 2/8.Kalookan ran a good time,but downside is that she beat Silver Z(WHO CAN'T WIN AT THE LEVEL) by 1 1/2 lengths.

[Rootdog1]

1)7,8
2)2,4
3)3,7,9,11
4)2,8
$32

1)7
2)4
3)3,7,5,11
$4

2)4
3)3,7,9,11
4)2,8
$8

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

1) Really, Really, Really bad race. I LOVE Princess Integrity here @ 6-1. Like Sidepocket @ 4-1 (she was 96-1 last time out, that is how bad this race is!!). Prob have to use Madera Royal @ 8/5 but she has been away 11 months, but all her previous races would win this. Is she ready? No way I single her.

2) Mullins confusing here....Beyondcomp drops from $50k to $25k off two good races. Something smells here, and not crazy about moving up from 5.5f up to 6f plus Flores gets off him (after riding him 5 times straight) and gets on Outside Looking. If she is right, then she just has to put away Curious Cody up front and rolls. If she stops in the lane, then Outside Looking in wins it.

3) toughest race in the early pk4. Using Silber, Trick A Cat, Key Rose, and Guest (if I grow a pair I will sub in Mohawk at 30-1 for Key Rose).

4) Leesider looks much the best at 8-5, but using Kineticat Yankee also. He is a first timer going a mile, which I dont like but Espinoza and Cecil hit at 50% for a +$5 ROI. A reach, but most others in here are moving up from claiming to MSW. Peace Accord is interesting as it appears the son of Betrando will take to the route and Gomez picks up the mount, but not sure she is classy enough and she got beat by a bad group last time out. The only other one that I may use in pk3's is Avvenimento at 12-1, as she ran decent down the hill race first time out and could surprise.

Nice call. Bet this one before I left this morning and got back just in time to see it!

[Rootdog1]

$18 winner in the first race!! That price was a joke - didnt put enough on the nose as I got scared by the 1/5 price on the #8....just $10 to win.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

$18 winner in the first race!! That price was a joke - didnt put enough on the nose as I got scared by the 1/5 price on the #8....just $10 to win.

Betting win money on 2% trainers is easier said than done.$10 is about the most ya want ta put on his animals.

[Rootdog1]

late pk4

5)3 (add the 7 if early pk4 comes in)
6)2,6,8
7)1,2
8)2,4,7,11,12

6)2,6,8
7)1,2,5
8)2,4,7,12

[SCUDSBROTHER]

race 4

P3 2, 3, 4/3/1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8

[estreetposse]

R5) PK4
37
2348
125
48 11 = $72


3
2348
12
8 10 11 = $24


gl all


-bt-

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

1)7,8
2)2,4
3)3,7,9,11
4)2,8
$32

1)7
2)4
3)3,7,5,11
$4

2)4
3)3,7,9,11
4)2,8
$8

BOO-YA

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Enough chalk ....Let's get a price,or I will get back the same $25 I put into this p3.

2 / 1, 4, 5, 8, 9 / 2, 7, 8, 11, 12

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Enough chalk ....Let's get a price,or I will get back the same $25 I put into this p3.

2 / 1, 4, 5, 8, 9 / 2, 7, 8, 11, 12

48-1, that kind of price.... what a joke!



-bt-