2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m trying to recall - didn’t he have a pretty bad start to that race?

Got left , raced wide, poorly ridden, could have won if the kid angled out turning for home to give his mount some room to roll on by. He was already wide, why not shift out ?

[Kasept]

Espinoza still heading to Aqueduct Saturday, but only for Much Better in Bay Shore; Dessman to pass Wood, per Baffert
Jay Privman, Aqueduct / Apr 1, 2019, 11:33 PM

Victor Espinoza will still travel to New York on Saturday to ride Much Better for trainer Bob Baffert in the seven-furlong Bay Shore at Aqueduct, but Dessman -- who had been considered for the Wood Memorial -- will not travel for that race, in which Espinoza would have ridden him, Baffert informed Monday night.

Baffert said that upon evaluating Dessman's workout earlier Monday at Santa Anita, it was not satisfactory to put him in a race like the Wood. Dessman most recently was second in an allowance race at Oaklawn on Rebel day, so the Wood would have been his second race in three weeks, both involving traveling.

Baffert said he was "not sure" where Dessman would run next.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Watching some replays, Dressman would be intriguing in the Wood. Watch his trip at Oaklawn on Rebel day.

Mike Watchmaker pointed out that although the trip compromised Dessman, ultimately the race was slow; by a full second vs. all the subsequent stakes races and even 3/5 off a maiden special weight for 3yos run in the very next race.

If Dessman starts and runs well, perhaps he'll act as a barometer for the Oaklawn horses vs. the NY crop.

[Kasept]

WOOD (11 entered; Draw to come) ~ 100-40-20-10

1 Tax (Alvarado/Gargan)
2 Tacitus (J. Ortiz/Mott)
3 Hoffa's Union (Davis/Casse)
4 Haikal (Maragh/KMc)
5 Final Jeopardy (Franco/Ja Servis)
6 Overdeliver (Carmouche/Pletcher)
7 Not That Brady (R. Gutierrez/Rodriguez)
8 Grumps Little Tots (Lezcano/Ja. Servis)
9 Math Wizard (Cancel/Joseph)
10 Outshine (J. Velazquez/Pltcher)
11 Joevia (Juarez/Sacco)

[Kasept]

4/6 (SA): SANTA ANITA DERBY ~ 100-40-20-10

1. Roadster (Baffert/Smith)
2. More Ice (Hollendorfer/Franco)
3. Nolo Contesto (Sadler/Talamo)
4. Synthesis (Papaprodromou/Bejarano)
5. Instagrand (Hollendorfer/Prat)
6. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario)

[blackthroatedwind]

Vekoma was much the best. He was also 7:5.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma was much the best. He was also 7:5.

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

[Alabama Stakes]

Lotta late money on Vekoma . 9/2...7/2 ......next thing you know he’s 7/5.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Lotta late money on Vekoma . 9/2...7/2 ......next thing you know he’s 7/5.

Tell me about it. I debated on putting a win bet on him. Saw him at 9-2 and couldn’t resist. I’ll take the win, just wish it was at better odds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Rumbling and stumbling and still won by 3 1/2 lengths.

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[tjfla]

Master Fencer from Japan is in and Anothertwistafate is ahead of Country House based on $$

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[ScottJ]

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

[moses]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

Juarez was suspended 15 days and fined $2,500. The problem is, he normally rides in Florida and is already back there riding so the suspension is almost entirely symbolic.

[LITF]

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

[moses]

Originally Posted by LITF

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

He likely won’t be my selection but I can’t exclude him from consideration. The pedigree looks like he could have challenges with the distance...but almost every horse in the race has a question mark surrounding them.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by LITF

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

BY MY STANDARDS (4/11)

Thriving back home at Churchill. Scary good working on Thursday and didn't want to stop.