2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[blackthroatedwind]

Vekoma was much the best. He was also 7:5.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma was much the best. He was also 7:5.

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

[Alabama Stakes]

Lotta late money on Vekoma . 9/2...7/2 ......next thing you know he’s 7/5.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Lotta late money on Vekoma . 9/2...7/2 ......next thing you know he’s 7/5.

Tell me about it. I debated on putting a win bet on him. Saw him at 9-2 and couldn’t resist. I’ll take the win, just wish it was at better odds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Tell me about it. I debated on putting a win bet on him. Saw him at 9-2 and couldn’t resist. I’ll take the win, just wish it was at better odds.

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

Yeah, I should have known it was too good to be true. I’ll still take it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

He’s a three year old in April, he’s supposed to be working hard for everything.

Is everyone who has enough points gonna go to the derby ? Looks like Anothertwistafate has to run in the Lexington to get more points.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Rumbling and stumbling and still won by 3 1/2 lengths.

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agree, and I also would.