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Old 05-02-2024, 02:55 PM
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Steve Byk
 
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Default 5/3-4 (CD): 150th Kentucky Derby/Oaks Weekend

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 150th OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Bellofthebluegrass 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Sundance Feature 4-1 WON ($8.18)
Exotics Use: #3 Penny Royal SCR
Super Add: #6 Thoughtful 5-2 2nd


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sidamara 4-1 WON ($6.22)
Best Value: #6 Wonder Ride 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Befriended 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Promisemeanempire 15-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 INJUNCTION 5-1 WON ($8.18)
Next Best: #8 Arthur's Ride 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Cyclone Mischief 10-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Lugan Knight 15-1 12th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #16 Batucada 8th
Best Value: #2 Sultry Lass 2nd
Next Best: #13 Into Disco 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Stir Crazy WON ($8.84)


5th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f ($1 2-Day-All G1 P6, P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Xigera 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Idiomatic 6-5 WON ($3.66)
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Mischievous 5-2 3rd


$1 2-Day All G1 P6 Grid:

FRI 5: 4-6 (A), - (B), 5 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 6: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby City
SAT 10: 10 (A), - (B), 2 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 2x3x2x1x4x4 = $192
Backups: $96 (5) + $128 (3-8) + $192 (2)


P5 Grid:

1: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 6-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
3: 5 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

2: 6-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
3: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), 13 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: Unbridled Sydney, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ova Charged 7-2 WON ($3.48)
Next Best: #5 Elm Drive 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Tony Ann 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Speedy 6-1 8th


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wild assemblage. Pick and pray..

Most Likely: #10 Trademark 6-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Call Me Fast 20-1 5th
Next Best: #3 First Mission 8-5 WON ($4.14)
Exotics Use: #1 Money Supply 6-1 6th


P5 Grid:

3: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x1x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

4: 2-16 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Mouffy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Aspen Grove 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Heavenly Sunday 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Surprisingly 5-1 7th


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Denim and Pearls 3-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Halina's Forte 10-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Do Gooder 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Impel 5-2 2nd


10th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Buchu 4-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Hard to Justify 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Mo Fox Givin 8-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Dynamic Pricing 10-1 WON ($19.82)


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Thorpedo Anna 5-1 WON ($10.98)
Best Value: #11 Ways and Means 5-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Just F Y I 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Tarifa 7-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Where's My Ring 15-1 8th


Oaks-Turf-Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4x4 = $48
Backup (CAA): 2x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $5 = $60
Backup (C-A): 2x4 = 8 x $2 = $16


P5 Grid:

7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (ACAAA + AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-6 in 8th) + 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups (ACAA): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Tweetster 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Almostgone Rocket 3-1 WON ($6.08)
Exotics Use: #8 Twirling Good Time 4-1 -
Super Add: #6 Mink's Palace 15-1 2nd


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Princess Madison 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Fancy 10-1 WON ($16.06)
Next Best: #2 Chilled 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Backstretch Rose 12-1 7th


P6 P5 Grid:

9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
12: 7-11 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups (CAAAA + AACAA + AAAAC): 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-8 in 9th) + 2x2x2x2x1 = 16 x .50 = $8 (3-8 in 11th) + 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6 in 13th)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
12: 7-11 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (6 in 13th)


Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-04-2024 at 04:19 PM.
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  #2  
Old 05-03-2024, 08:15 AM
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AS EXPECTED, 4TH RACE IS OFF/TURF

CD OAKS DAY SCR/CHG'S
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 05-03-2024, 09:39 AM
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Thanks as always for your tireless efforts and insights in the leadup to this always anticipated weekend!

Here's to firing up the Byk train and rolling it righ thorough a monster weekend.

Best of luck to you and all!
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Old 05-03-2024, 08:02 PM
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Great Friday Steve. Keep it rolling for Saturday.
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Old 05-03-2024, 09:48 PM
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Originally Posted by jwkniska View Post
Great Friday Steve. Keep it rolling for Saturday.
Thx Pal.. Decent day that suffered from 2-3 poorly timed miscues.. Hope everyone did well.

Let's kill it tomorrow!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 05-03-2024, 09:48 PM
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CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 150th DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Evan On Earth 3-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Pure Force 5-2 WON ($5.66)
Best Value: #5 Lou's Legacy 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 House United 5-1 5th


2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Scylla 6-5 WON ($2.98)
Best Value: #10 Secret Statement 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Coppa Girl 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Joke Sisi 10-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Highly anticipated non-stake with stunning debut winner Mindframe returning against a hatfull of quality sophomores..

Most Likely: #11 Mindframe 2-1 WON ($2.92)
Best Value: #2 Cornishman 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cartucho 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Invigorated 9-2 8th


4th: Knicks Go-R, 4+, 1m (All Dirt STK P5, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Best Actor 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Five Star General 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Kapuna 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Oscar Eclipse 8-1 6th


5th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Motorious 7-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Mischief Magic 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #14 Cogburn 8-1 WON ($18.78)
Exotics Use: #10 Big Invasion 5-1 10th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 3-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-10 (A), 7-11 (B), 1-2 (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x4x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 3x4x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-2 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

2: 3-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-7-10 (A), 1-2-11 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (6-11-1-14) Paid $84.80


6th: Derby City Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Alva Starr 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Vahva 3-1 WON ($5.44)
Best Value: #8 Sterling Silver 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Olivia Darling 10-1 9th


All Dirt STK P5 Grid:

4: 6-10 (A), 1-2-7-11 (B), - (C) ~ Knicks Go
6: 7-10 (A), - (B), 8 (C) ~ Derby City
8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Pat Day
10: 10 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), 2-4-18 (C) ~ Derby

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (ACAAA + AAACA + AAAAC): 2x1x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (8 in 6th); 2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 (4-6 in 10th); 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-4-18 in 12th)


7th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (.20 'Must Pay' Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Race goes through the Chad Browns..

Most Likely: #11 Coppice 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Delahaye 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Mission of Joy 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Evvie Jets 6-1 8th


P4 Grid:

4: 6-7-10 (A), 1-2-11 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)
6: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 11 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x3x1 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9 (6 in 7th)


.20 Must Pay P6:

7: 6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x3x4x5 = 360 x .20 = $72


8th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (P5, $3 3yo P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Who Dey 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Vlahos 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Nash 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Carbone 10-1 6th


$3 3yo P3 Grid:

8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Pat Day Mile
9: 5 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C) ~ American Turf
12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4 = 36 x $3 = $108
All A's: 3x1x4 = 12 x $3 = $36


9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Legend of Time 7-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Lord Bullingdon 15-1 13th
Next Best: #3 Lagynos 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Formidable Man 15-1 2nd


10th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

In some ways, the day's most difficult race given its' placement in the big Pick-X sequences. Gun Pilot broke maiden this strip and trip and appears poised for breakthrough with stalk and go voyage with under-appreciated Torres..

Best Value: #10 GUN PILOT 10-1 WON ($12.68)
Next Best: #4 Mr. Wireless 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Zozos 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Three Technique 10-1 9th


11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tricky draw for Appleby invader opens door for Shug & Chad..

Best Value: #1 Integration 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 I'm Very Busy 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Naval Power 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Program Trading 9-2 WON ($10.18)


12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

We've been over the general framework of this group for weeks with mercurial Fierceness (3-1 overnight) and dogged Sierra Leone (9-2) bracketing another solid 18 hopefuls. After the favorite who thoroughly deserves the respect he's getting, Honor Marie (12-1) & Domestic Product (31-1) are well-priced mid-pack types that have merit as alternatives to one run closing Sierra and Chasing Freedom (8-1). Just a Touch (11-1) and Stronghold (32-1) mirror my top pair in pricing and will enjoy up close, first run trips..

Most Likely: #7 Honor Marie 20-1 8th
Best Value: #15 Domestic Product 30-1 13th
Next Best: #8 Just a Touch 10-1 20th
Exotics Use: #17 Fierceness 5-2 15th
Super/Hi-5: #18 Stronghold 20-1 7th


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $5 = $60
Backup (C-A): 2x4 = 8 x $2 = $16


Oaks-Turf-Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4x4 = $48
Backup (CAA): 2x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


$1 2-Day All G1 P6 Grid:

FRI 5: 4-6 (A), - (B), 5 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 6: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby City
SAT 10: 10 (A), - (B), 2 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 2x3x2x1x4x4 = $192
Backups: $96 (5) + $128 (3-8) + $192 (2)


P5 Grid:

8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x4x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x1x2x2x5 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (ACAAA): 3x1x2x2x5 = 40 x .50 = $20 (8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

9: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x3x4x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)


13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #14 Yellow Card 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Jefferson Street 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Devilsgotacause 15-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Discreet Mischief 5-2 2nd


14th: MSW, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 D'oro Unbridled 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dive Bomber 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Gun Party 7-2 WON ($7.36)
Super Add: #6 Banned for Life 5-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-6 (A), - (B), 5-11 (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 7-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 8 (A), 1 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x5x2x1 = 60 x .50 = $30
Backups (ACAAA + AAAAC): 3x2x5x2x1 = 60 x .50 = $30 (5-11 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

11: 1-6 (A), 5-11 (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), 2-10-11 (B), 3-4-6-12-14-19 (C)
13: 7-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x8x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x5x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (ACAA): 2x3x2x6 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-4-6-12-14-19)


Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 05-04-2024 at 11:40 PM.
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Old 05-03-2024, 09:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Thx Pal.. Decent day that suffered from 2-3 poorly timed miscues.. Hope everyone did well.

Let's kill it tomorrow!
A lot of us made the same miscues. it when our handicapping matches.
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Old 05-04-2024, 04:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 150th OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Bellofthebluegrass 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Sundance Feature 4-1 WON ($8.18)
Exotics Use: #3 Penny Royal SCR
Super Add: #6 Thoughtful 5-2 2nd


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sidamara 4-1 WON ($6.22)
Best Value: #6 Wonder Ride 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Befriended 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Promisemeanempire 15-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 INJUNCTION 5-1 WON ($8.18)
Next Best: #8 Arthur's Ride 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Cyclone Mischief 10-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Lugan Knight 15-1 12th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #16 Batucada 8th
Best Value: #2 Sultry Lass 2nd
Next Best: #13 Into Disco 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Stir Crazy WON ($8.84)


5th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f ($1 2-Day-All G1 P6, P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Xigera 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Idiomatic 6-5 WON ($3.66)
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Mischievous 5-2 3rd


$1 2-Day All G1 P6 Grid:

FRI 5: 4-6 (A), - (B), 5 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 6: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby City
SAT 10: 10 (A), - (B), 2 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby
All A's: 2x3x2x1x4x4 = $192
Backups: $96 (5) + $128 (3-8) + $192 (2)


P5 Grid:

1: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 6-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
3: 5 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

2: 6-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
3: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), 13 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: Unbridled Sydney, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ova Charged 7-2 WON ($3.48)
Next Best: #5 Elm Drive 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Tony Ann 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Speedy 6-1 8th


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wild assemblage. Pick and pray..

Most Likely: #10 Trademark 6-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Call Me Fast 20-1 5th
Next Best: #3 First Mission 8-5 WON ($4.14)
Exotics Use: #1 Money Supply 6-1 6th


P5 Grid:

3: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x1x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

4: 2-16 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Mouffy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Aspen Grove 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Heavenly Sunday 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Surprisingly 5-1 7th


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Denim and Pearls 3-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Halina's Forte 10-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Do Gooder 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Impel 5-2 2nd


10th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Buchu 4-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Hard to Justify 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Mo Fox Givin 8-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Dynamic Pricing 10-1 WON ($19.82)


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Thorpedo Anna 5-1 WON ($10.98)
Best Value: #11 Ways and Means 5-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Just F Y I 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Tarifa 7-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Where's My Ring 15-1 8th


Oaks-Turf-Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4x4 = $48
Backup (CAA): 2x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $5 = $60
Backup (C-A): 2x4 = 8 x $2 = $16


P5 Grid:

7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (ACAAA + AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-6 in 8th) + 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups (ACAA): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Tweetster 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Almostgone Rocket 3-1 WON ($6.08)
Exotics Use: #8 Twirling Good Time 4-1 -
Super Add: #6 Mink's Palace 15-1 2nd


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Princess Madison 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Fancy 10-1 WON ($16.06)
Next Best: #2 Chilled 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Backstretch Rose 12-1 7th


P6 P5 Grid:

9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
12: 7-11 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups (CAAAA + AACAA + AAAAC): 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-8 in 9th) + 2x2x2x2x1 = 16 x .50 = $8 (3-8 in 11th) + 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6 in 13th)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
12: 7-11 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (6 in 13th)


Good luck!
Steve
Great Job Yesterday. Good Luck in what is a skullbuster of a card.
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  #9  
Old 05-04-2024, 05:51 AM
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Kasept Kasept is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Great Job Yesterday. Good Luck in what is a skullbuster of a card.
THX Jim.. Was pleased to stay focused on Thorpedo Anna who ran how she trained, this year's Pretty Mischievous. (And Candied is this year's Taxed)..

Biggest mistake was missing My Mane Squeeze. Really hurt.

Let's get lucky today!
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Old 05-04-2024, 07:44 AM
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Nice work Steve.
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  #11  
Old 05-04-2024, 08:41 AM
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Main track MUDDY (anticipate improvement as day wears on..)

Turf GOOD (somewhat surprisingly..)
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #12  
Old 05-04-2024, 08:47 AM
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SCR

R2: 1, 4
R3: 5, 6, 7
R4: 4
R5: 7, 16, 17
R7: 8, 10
R9: 1, 16, 17
R10: 3
R11: 9
R12: 9, 22
R13: 1, 8, 9, 10, 13, 15
R14: 5
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #13  
Old 05-04-2024, 11:15 AM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
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Is Mindframe the best 3 yr old running today?
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  #14  
Old 05-04-2024, 03:20 PM
Sethcarter Sethcarter is offline
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now i am praying...

CHURCHILL DOWNS
RACE 9
$0.50
P4
L1
2
5
6
9
-
11
14
L2
2
4
6
9
-
11
L3
11
L4
2
4
7
8
11
15
17
19
BET TOTAL:
$168.00
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  #15  
Old 05-04-2024, 03:41 PM
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ninetoone ninetoone is offline
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When Steve goes ALL CAPS, look out!

GUN PILOT 10-1
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  #16  
Old 05-04-2024, 03:47 PM
Sethcarter Sethcarter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sethcarter View Post
now i am praying...

CHURCHILL DOWNS
RACE 9
$0.50
P4
L1
2
5
6
9
-
11
14
L2
2
4
6
9
10
11
L3
11
L4
2
4
7
8
11
15
17
19
BET TOTAL:
$168.00
praying for the 11
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  #17  
Old 05-04-2024, 04:06 PM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sethcarter View Post
praying for the 11
Will cheer for you too
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Old 05-04-2024, 04:32 PM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ADJMK View Post
Will cheer for you too
Heartbreak
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  #19  
Old 05-04-2024, 05:34 PM
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Im live to the Oaks/Derby Double with 7,14,15,19 ($2) and the 17 for $10.
I put this ticket in for a $1 Pick 3, win bet on Catching Freedom...g'luck!

4
2,6,7,14
1,3,6,8,10,12
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Old 05-04-2024, 10:34 PM
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Can anybody offer up an explanation of how in the American Turf in the 9th race you have a Trifecta consisting of a 47-1 over a 24-1 over a 36-1 shot in a race with 14 horses, including a 6/5 favorite and 4 additional horses in single digits off the ticket and the .50 tri doesn't even pay $3,000?

$2.1 mil in the Tri pool.

I really thought that was going to pay over $10k for the .50 increment.

Stunning turn of events.
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