5/3-4 (CD): 150th Kentucky Derby/Oaks Weekend

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 150th OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Bellofthebluegrass 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Sundance Feature 4-1 WON ($8.18)
Exotics Use: #3 Penny Royal SCR
Super Add: #6 Thoughtful 5-2 2nd


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sidamara 4-1 WON ($6.22)
Best Value: #6 Wonder Ride 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Befriended 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Promisemeanempire 15-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 INJUNCTION 5-1 WON ($8.18)
Next Best: #8 Arthur's Ride 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Cyclone Mischief 10-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Lugan Knight 15-1 12th


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #16 Batucada 8th
Best Value: #2 Sultry Lass 2nd
Next Best: #13 Into Disco 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Stir Crazy WON ($8.84)


5th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f ($1 2-Day-All G1 P6, P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Xigera 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Idiomatic 6-5 WON ($3.66)
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Mischievous 5-2 3rd


$1 2-Day All G1 P6 Grid:

FRI 5: 4-6 (A), - (B), 5 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 6: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby City
SAT 10: 10 (A), - (B), 2 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby
All A's: 2x3x2x1x4x4 = $192
Backups: $96 (5) + $128 (3-8) + $192 (2)


P5 Grid:

1: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 6-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
3: 5 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

2: 6-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)
3: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), 13 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: Unbridled Sydney, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ova Charged 7-2 WON ($3.48)
Next Best: #5 Elm Drive 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Tony Ann 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Speedy 6-1 8th


7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wild assemblage. Pick and pray..

Most Likely: #10 Trademark 6-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Call Me Fast 20-1 5th
Next Best: #3 First Mission 8-5 WON ($4.14)
Exotics Use: #1 Money Supply 6-1 6th


P5 Grid:

3: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-16 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x1x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

4: 2-16 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Mouffy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Aspen Grove 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Heavenly Sunday 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Surprisingly 5-1 7th


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Denim and Pearls 3-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Halina's Forte 10-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Do Gooder 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Impel 5-2 2nd


10th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Buchu 4-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Hard to Justify 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Mo Fox Givin 8-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Dynamic Pricing 10-1 WON ($19.82)


11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Thorpedo Anna 5-1 WON ($10.98)
Best Value: #11 Ways and Means 5-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Just F Y I 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Tarifa 7-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Where's My Ring 15-1 8th


Oaks-Turf-Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4x4 = $48
Backup (CAA): 2x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $5 = $60
Backup (C-A): 2x4 = 8 x $2 = $16


P5 Grid:

7: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (ACAAA + AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-6 in 8th) + 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups (ACAA): 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Tweetster 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Almostgone Rocket 3-1 WON ($6.08)
Exotics Use: #8 Twirling Good Time 4-1 -
Super Add: #6 Mink's Palace 15-1 2nd


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Princess Madison 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Fancy 10-1 WON ($16.06)
Next Best: #2 Chilled 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Backstretch Rose 12-1 7th


P6 P5 Grid:

9: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
12: 7-11 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups (CAAAA + AACAA + AAAAC): 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-8 in 9th) + 2x2x2x2x1 = 16 x .50 = $8 (3-8 in 11th) + 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6 in 13th)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-9 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11-13 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
12: 7-11 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (6 in 13th)


Good luck!
Steve

Great Job Yesterday. Good Luck in what is a skullbuster of a card.