Two at Toga (2025)

[theguarantee]

Can't believe I didn't pick or bet On the Hill...been chasing that horse a while and been trying to get the Bond stable going...

Best Value: Race 7 #12 Bossy Dish 12/1 - Far from a confident selection but little other speed signed on and she really seemed to improve when finally moving to the turf. Don't think the bettors are dying to get aboard Rudy/Gomez but both are capable enough and if the connections were different I think she'd be much shorter in here.

Best Bet: Race 8 #1 Gem Mint Ten 20/1 - I don't know what to make of Rhetorical to be honest. I've been tremendously impressed with him and yet something with him seems unreliable. I won't be surprised if he dusts this field but I don't want to concede at such a short price...Betterluckythangood and Itsallcomintogetha are the more obvious alternatives and I get both of them as options, but I'm not totally thrilled with the form of either coming in and they're not going to be all that great of prices. Then I started picking apart Gem Mint Ten, who clearly looks to be in the worst form of any of these....yet he's got plenty of races from last year that make him a real contender and I think he can be excused for being up on a solid pace on good turf, just tiring late in the first start off the layoff. The last race was somewhat disappointing but I think is pretty easy to forgive when you consider the extreme pace scenario, he actually did all the dirty work in there and never stopped fighting, which makes me think he's not in as bad of form as it looks, just needs better racing luck. I don't really have an excuse for the Kingston and I can't fault anyone who thinks he's off form/facing similar/in without lasix again today...but Ray Handal is pretty sharp and didn't have to point back here where he knew probably what he'd be facing...I'm not a big fan of Maragh but I think the instructions are awfully simple here so I don't know if it'll do much other than add to the price.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Another day bringing back $7.70 with Scotland running 2nd. If Scotland had gotten up, I would have had a huge day. Instead, down overall. The G1 races were just an absolute chalktoberfest and I rarely bet favorites so that’s how my day went. Barnes ran a pretty good race to finish third but never really seemed to be in contention to catch the top two.

$288.00 wagered
$312.40 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Sassetti 8/1. I can’t remember if I picked this horse already this meet or if I just thought about it but I liked this horse going into last race and I thought she ran a pretty good race that day as the only horse close to the pace not to finish poorly. I much prefer her to the horse that finished in front of her— the #2 Off Script who is listed at 7/2 ML.

Race 8. #3 Bettrluckythangood 5/1. Not sure what to make of the pace here but it sure looks like a lot of horses that want to be up front. That might just set up perfectly for this one. There is a big favorite here but not sure much separates this field.

Returned $3.60 with Bettrluckythangood finishing 2nd. Just grinding it out.

$296.00 wagered
$316.00 returned