GP P6 carryover

[Frost King]

Looks like the whales got harpooned today!

[Scav]

They would have had to hit it 57 times to break even. LOL

They hit it 9 times by my estimate

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Scav

They would have had to hit it 57 times to break even. LOL

They hit it 9 times by my estimate

38 x 0.10 = 160,892.38......thats what I get

[Scav]

Originally Posted by casp0555

38 x 0.10 = 160,892.38......thats what I get

I didn't see that they had tickets that were 2.10 and others so that is my mistake.

I went off what the will pay said which was $1750. I see that it paid $4234 per $1. That is absolutely amazing. They did profit.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Scav

I went off what the will pay said which was $1750. I see that it paid $4234 per $1. That is absolutely amazing. They did profit.

$4,234 Per 10-cents.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

$4,234 Per 10-cents.

I saw it, not sure why AmWest had it a different way, guess should believe the will pays. Just saw on Twitter from Mike Welsch that they indeed posted the wrong will pays. That unbelievable awesome for those that hit it. Thinking $1700 coming back and boom, $4300

Did you end up hitting it?

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Anyone else think Running Wildcat might relish the 7 furlong distance tomorrow in the 10th? ESP if the track is muddy.

I like the Vitali in the 12th too. My top choice in that one is the horse to his inside, Forever Conga. 10,2,11,3,9 in there. I'll probably end up only going 3 deep.

The key to cashing right here. Hope you had a winning ticket.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Scav

I saw it, not sure why AmWest had it a different way, guess should believe the will pays. Just saw on Twitter from Mike Welsch that they indeed posted the wrong will pays. That unbelievable awesome for those that hit it. Thinking $1700 coming back and boom, $4300

Did you end up hitting it?

Yes.

I wanted to vomit on the far turn in the finale, I hated the favorite in the last, thought he was a pure turf horse and took a complete stand against him first time on dirt. He looked like a winner, but thankfully hung.

That 10-cent pick six is the single greatest bet in the world on closing day... you'd have to put a gun to my head to play it any other time when the rake is draconian.

[hockey2315]

I wasn't that upset after seeing the will-pays, but now that I know they were wrong, I'm a little cranky.


Apr. 5, 2013
01:00 PM

Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
8
$0.10
P6
5,10 / 4,14 / 3,5,10 / 3,7,11 / 11 / 1,12
$7.20
$0.00

[ranger5830]

I also saw the lower will-pays in the beginning, and I can only think that at first it didn't take into account the mandatory payoff, that's what the payoffs would have been had the rest carried over to tomorrow, but then they went and fixed it to show the whole pool being paid out in spite of there being multiple tickets.

Congrats to those who hit, and Doug may I ask how big a ticket you played and if you hit it more than once?

[golfer]

I'm going to guess that the reason the willpays were off, and it took them so long to finally put up the prices, is because so many tickets had scratched horses on them, they needed to move all those to the favorite. Interestingly, in the final 2 legs, the 2nd choice won. Had the betting been slightly different, this thing could have paid FAR less.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I also saw the lower will-pays in the beginning, and I can only think that at first it didn't take into account the mandatory payoff, that's what the payoffs would have been had the rest carried over to tomorrow, but then they went and fixed it to show the whole pool being paid out in spite of there being multiple tickets.

Congrats to those who hit, and Doug may I ask how big a ticket you played and if you hit it more than once?

Yes, more than once. However, not all of my winning tickets were 100% mine. Had a few different partners and other people in for shares.

Regarding your other question, I always play multiple tickets instead of just one big ticket.

I was also lucky enough to get offered a 'free roll' from Justin Dew. Justin just had his 2nd kid and had to be with his wife, so he didn't have any time to handicap or even look at the pp's. He told me he had $228 in his Twinspires account and offered me 20% if we hit. Even his wife was happy it, she friended me of Facebook.

It terms of ticket strategy, the DRF's excellent writer Steve Crist likes to say 'the Pick 6 would better be named the Avoid 1' ... I simplify some of his theories a lot, to where I need 5 A's to win, and the multiple tickets allow for a fringe contender, 1 "B" horse, to win.

Basically, in yesterdays sequence, I eliminated all the hopeless bums from leg #3, leg #4, and leg #5. They were the 3 contentious races. I took a wide net and used anything that wasn't a bum on every ticket.

The three defining races I made leg #1, leg #2, and leg #6. They were clearly the least contentious races, and I needed to be right in at least 2 of them to cash (hence, the proper name for the bet, "the Avoid 1")

In leg #1: I needed the 6/5 favorite as the lone A.
In leg #2: I needed the 8/5 favorite and 9/5 second choice as the two A's.
In leg #6: I needed the #1 and #11 as the two A's.

The 6/5 favorite won leg 1. The 8/5 favorite won leg 2. And the #1 horse won leg 3. In essence, I hit the Avoid 1 without having to actually avoid one.

I got a very fortunate break when they rained 3 races off of the turf.

Handicappers usually use way too much imagination in off the turf races. Just look at proven dirt track form and pedigree in those races. One time, I sat down to study 7 straight years worth of result charts for the Saratoga meet. One trend I noticed, was that the post time favorite won at an unusually high percentage and had a clear profitable ROI in all races rained off of the turf over that 7 year span I had result charts for.

Even though 'rained off of the turf' races tend to be especially chalky ... generally, the good chalks have proven dirt form. The bad chalks, have the best turf or synthetic form in the race...but aren't proven or good enough on dirt.

Because of the dime minimum, you could easily and cheaply seal up the only 3 races that had a contentious look to them. Had it stayed on turf, five of the six races would have had a very contentious look to them. It still would have been a great bet, because $2 million in free money at just a 10-cent unit, but the rain really made the day.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I was also lucky enough to get offered a 'free roll' from Justin Dew. Justin just had his 2nd kid and had to be with his wife, so he didn't have any time to handicap or even look at the pp's. He told me he had $228 in his Twinspires account and offered me 20% if we hit. Even his wife was happy it, she friended me of Facebook.

Fiance!!!

She's been a big fan of your Facebook posts for a long time. I suggested it was high time she friended your ass.

And thanks again.

[outofthebox]

Congrats to everyone who hit!

[ADJMK]

Yesterday's results just confirm that even with a .10c unit how difficult it is to hit a P6. The .10 does help the small guy compete with the syndicates that are trying to buy the pool. I wonder what the pool would be if on a big day like Breeders Cup if they made it a .10 or .50 bet. I am sure that a lot of people that have given up chasing the P6 as unaffordable at $2 might suddenly get involved

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Yesterday's results just confirm that even with a .10c unit how difficult it is to hit a P6. The .10 does help the small guy compete with the syndicates that are trying to buy the pool. I wonder what the pool would be if on a big day like Breeders Cup if they made it a .10 or .50 bet. I am sure that a lot of people that have given up chasing the P6 as unaffordable at $2 might suddenly get involved

Especially if they guarantee it at say 2 million.