Two at Toga (2023)

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m tired of Irad’s antics but I can’t really have sympathy for the two other horses involved here, who appeared to be working together to prevent Forte from getting into open space. At what point in time did we become OK with horses from the same trainer teaming up to impede another horse?

I’ve seen a lot of people saying that’s just race riding. I don’t agree. It’s collusion and what bettor wants to see that? It’s different when we’re talking about running a rabbit to set up a closer, imo. I’ve never liked when Baffert did this with his horses and don’t think we should reward this ‘strategy’ by DQing a clearly better horse unless the foul is extraordinarily egregious.

I’m not sure it had anything to do with trainers. I just think it was Prat not wanting to let anyone out. I think he would’ve done the same thing if it was Disarm inside of him and someone else, not trained by Cox on the lead.

Now Rosario wouldn’t have pushed his way out like Irad did but I digress

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’m not sure it had anything to do with trainers. I just think it was Prat not wanting to let anyone out. I think he would’ve done the same thing if it was Disarm inside of him and someone else, not trained by Cox on the lead.

Now Rosario wouldn’t have pushed his way out like Irad did but I digress

Maybe you’re right but it’s a bad look imo. Just one of many (and in this instance, probably fairly minor) reasons the accumulation of most of the talented horses in a small number of barns creates issues for the sport.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I didn’t get a chance to look too closely at this card. But here are two horses I like:

Race 1 - #2 Golden Ghost, 6/1. I want to take a shot here with a horse that debuted in a stakes sprint race on dirt but clearly has pedigree for turf, particularly turf routes. She took money on debut and my guess is Casse thinks she’s got some talent but needs to figure out where she fits. Expecting that she’ll be above 6/1.

Race 3 - #8 Sedona Red, 8/1. With fairly obscure connections going up against the likes of Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, expect this one to be a big price. But his most recent dirt performance should win this if he can translate it to turf. He’s one of the few 4 year olds in this race and I always give them extra long looks going against 3 year olds in turf routes. The dam has produced two turf winners. They started him out on turf and now send him back to the grass. He’s got a shot…and I suspect will be over the 8/1 morning line price.

Golden Ghost scratched and race 3 off the turf now. Switch to:

Race 6 - #4 Mugen, 7/2.
Race 9 - #9 Rebel’s Romance, 8/5.

Taking some shorter prices on horse I think are logical. Again, didn’t get a lot of time to look at this card so not going to try to be too clever.

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.

You are having a VERY nice meet. Well done

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.

Another great call. Impressive

[theguarantee]

^Thanks guys. It’s been a nice Spa ‘23 for me so far. Up pretty good on the meet even if frustrated feeling like I should be up more. Hopefully can keep it rolling into August.

[moses]

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Good luck. I circled back to Runaway Rumour a few times. She’s above 20/1. I’m putting a few bucks on Regal Realm but wouldn’t be surprised to see Runaway Rumour run well either.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

Great job with Fuligni!

(Agree Hossy. Seemed like a filly that was distinctly better on turf..)

[theguarantee]

^thanks guys. I wish I could tell you it was some great piece of handicapping dahoss but it was mainly a stab. Fuligni has been a bit of a pet of mine and while Steve is right that on figs she certainly looked like a better turfer I thought she had some excuses, subtle and weird trips on dirt and just looked like a field that was crying out for a price to me. I always give Bonds horses a second and third look at the Spa and I liked having Rosario up at what would be a square price. She sat an absolutely perfect trip and it was nice it worked out.

Have to update my records but probably won’t get to it until Saturday as I’m away again.

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Amazing Grace 5/1 - I loved her Euro form and thought she was tons the best in the NA debut. Had high hopes and she’s disappointed the last two but the first is excusable at slightly shorter behind a slow pace. I don’t think she wants 2 miles as she possesses a really nice turn of foot. I think she’s at her best going 1.5 and she’ll get that today. Not sure she’s good enough to beat War Like if she fires an A race and a little worried about the pace but we should get a square price and want to give her one more shot to prove she’s as good as I think.

Best Value: Race 1 - #10 A Knights Courage 15/1 - Although I think is probably bred more for synth than turf I’ve liked the of this colt and was waiting for Donk to switch surfaces. The horses has absolutely detested the kickback on dirt in my opinion. Not sure he’s quite good enough but can’t pass on a big price today.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

Interesting. 4/18 isn’t even bad. 13/24 is incredible. I didn’t realize that.

I really wanted to like the Chad maiden breaker in that race…but I have a feeling that was a pretty bad maiden field so couldn’t do it.

[moses]

I think I’m headed down the shore tomorrow so going to throw in my Saturday picks as well.

First bet: Race 9 - #2 Program Trading, 7/2
Second bet: Race 10 - #2 Charge It, 5/1

If either get scratched:
Alternative 1: Race 2 - #8 Badlands Ruler, 20/1
Alternative 2: Race 6 - #3 Cogburn, 8/1

[moses]

Not for this challenge but I’m throwing some money on the 16 here in race 4.

[theguarantee]

Whiffed bad yesterday. Not much time today.

Best Bet: Race 7 - #3 Elusive Princess 7/2
Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Bat Flip 8/1

[moses]

That horse cannot avoid trouble.