Two at Toga

[moses]

Who would have thought that Complexity would pay more to place than Miss Jimmy? $6.40 for Complexity's 2nd place finish and $5.70 for Miss Jimmy are added to the totals.

Best bets: $56.00 wagered. $27.10 returned.
Longshots: $56.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $112.00 wagered. $87.40 returned.

Sunday August 30th.

Best bet: Race 8 - #8 Harris Bay (3/1 ML). Of the horses coming out of the 8th race at Saratoga on August 2nd, I want Harris Bay. The #4 Gandy Dancing had his own issues in that race, but Harris Bay got bumped and squeezed early and was still able to finish strong, almost catching Gandy Dancing down the stretch. Harris Bay now goes for his 2nd race off of a 7-month layoff and should improve off the last performance.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Lucky Stride (15/1 ML). If you're a believer in equibase speed figures, Lucky Stride is not only the most consistent runner of this bunch but also the clear best. She's got a career high of 117 compared to Letruska's career high of 113 and she's also recorded a 100+ equibase speed figure in her last 4 starts. I rarely use equibase numbers but this horse has me intrigued with her recent sharp workouts with stablemate Win Win Win, who came flying home to win the Forego on Saturday. I'm not enamored with any of the other horses in this race, so at 15/1, I'll take a shot on this wildcard.

[theguarantee]

Thanks hoss...

Wagered: $76.00
Returned: $103.90

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Golden Award - What a great race this Shuvee came up...you could absolutely make a case for any and I've debated several in here...I ultimately want to lean on Golden Award. I've always thought she was really nice and while she really throws up some duds, I like her best races. This is the first time in a while that Mott seems to have her avoiding a need for at least a freshening. Clearly she wasn't ready or up for the Phipps but I felt the Summer Colony showed she is back. I realize Nonna Madeline disposed of her late but I think this has been the target all along and she'll be ready for her best today. Her last work on xbtv was a real eye popper to me...I do think she will have to prove she can rate and it's been a while/she's only done it vs much lesser...I think she's sitting on full go and hasn't shown her absolute best yet. Hoping Nonna Madeline attacks Letruska like she did her in the last and she sits just off/makes first run.

Best Value: Race 7 #7 Dancingwthdaffodls - I can actually hardly believe myself for landing on her...I almost dismissed off the perfect trip/weak field for a horse who's shown she doesn't like to win...while the July 30th race has any number of angles for trip handicappers I just think they may all end up overbet. On the other hand a horse who looks like she doesn't want to win or stretch out may go overlooked. I just think she's a different horse since the last layoff...and with a few dirt starts over some subpar turf efforts preceding that she's fairly easy to dismiss. She's ran OK with an improved closing kick since though and seems to be in the best form of her career. While the stretchout might not work I think she has enough speed to find a decent spot maybe in the second flight today...note the 78 Beyer at a mile last Summer (competitive in here) came off the heels of much lesser form.

Good luck.

[moses]

A 2nd place finish from Harris Bay adds $3.20 to the total returns.

Best bets: $60.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $60.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $120.00 wagered. $90.60 returned.

Wednesday September 1.

Best bet: Race 6 - #13 - Saratoga Love (9/2 ML). This one is currently listed on the AE list so it's possible that she won't draw into the field. I'll check scratches tomorrow and see. She is by far the fastest horse in the field and should be the early pacesetter, even with the outside post. The expected favorite, Voting Agreement, will have to work out a good trip to be able to catch her and I'm just not sure she is as good as the morning line would indicate.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Blame the Booze (9/2 ML). I don't know if he even really counts as a longshot but he's the 4th choice in a 6-horse field so let's roll with it. Originally scheduled to run on turf, Blame the Booze's debut was washed off and he won fairly easily in the mud. He's got a tall, strong frame that looks to me like it should take to the turf. Obviously, American Monarch has the Beyer advantage over this field but 7/5 on him is pretty unappealing as he ran only 3 weeks ago and the strength of that field is completely unknown. He finished well after being close to a very slow pace. Blame the Booze, on the other hand, should be forwardly placed with an aggressive ride from Luis Saez and has a very good chance to wire this field, assuming he likes the turf.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

A 2nd place finish from Harris Bay adds $3.20 to the total returns.

Best bets: $60.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $60.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $120.00 wagered. $90.60 returned.

Wednesday September 1.

Best bet: Race 6 - #13 - Saratoga Love (9/2 ML). This one is currently listed on the AE list so it's possible that she won't draw into the field. I'll check scratches tomorrow and see. She is by far the fastest horse in the field and should be the early pacesetter, even with the outside post. The expected favorite, Voting Agreement, will have to work out a good trip to be able to catch her and I'm just not sure she is as good as the morning line would indicate.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Blame the Booze (9/2 ML). I don't know if he even really counts as a longshot but he's the 4th choice in a 6-horse field so let's roll with it. Originally scheduled to run on turf, Blame the Booze's debut was washed off and he won fairly easily in the mud. He's got a tall, strong frame that looks to me like it should take to the turf. Obviously, American Monarch has the Beyer advantage over this field but 7/5 on him is pretty unappealing as he ran only 3 weeks ago and the strength of that field is completely unknown. He finished well after being close to a very slow pace. Blame the Booze, on the other hand, should be forwardly placed with an aggressive ride from Luis Saez and has a very good chance to wire this field, assuming he likes the turf.

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by moses

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

Very nice hit on your longshot play

[moses]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Very nice hit on your longshot play

Thanks. With the 5 adding blinkers, the 6 looking like the main speed, and aggressive riders like Carmouche and Lezcano on the other horses, I was hoping for a quick pace that allowed the 3 to reel them in. And the 3 had run at least decently on a wet track before. I definitely didn't expect the 1 to still be there but that couldn't have come together any better for me.

[Alabama Stakes]

Good reasoning, Mo. keep up the good work.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Good reasoning, Mo. keep up the good work.

Thanks. I’m kind of amazed at how much better the ROI and overall results are for my longshots vs my best bets. Not so much ROI but my best bets have not done well.

[Alabama Stakes]

Go for 2 Longshots . It makes things much more interesting .

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

Great job with Vinda!

[moses]

Finally out of the red with Vinda Machine scoring.

Best bets: $64.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $64.00 wagered. $98.70returned.
Total: $128.00 wagered. $129.00 returned.

Thursday, September 3.

Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Harlem Heights (5/1 ML). This 1/2 sister to Point of Entry should like the surface switch to turf.

Longshot: Race 7 - #5 Five Alarm Robin (8/1 ML). This race looks fairly competitive but Kitten of the Sea removes her blinkers and that may allow Five Alarm Robin a relatively easy lead. Now late into her 4YO year, I’m hoping this one has improved a bit from her 3YO year and is ready to take another step forward. She’s certainly capable.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Finally out of the red with Vinda Machine scoring.

Best bets: $64.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $64.00 wagered. $98.70returned.
Total: $128.00 wagered. $129.00 returned.

Thursday, September 3.

Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Harlem Heights (5/1 ML). This 1/2 sister to Point of Entry should like the surface switch to turf.

Longshot: Race 7 - #5 Five Alarm Robin (8/1 ML). This race looks fairly competitive but Kitten of the Sea removes her blinkers and that may allow Five Alarm Robin a relatively easy lead. Now late into her 4YO year, I’m hoping this one has improved a bit from her 3YO year and is ready to take another step forward. She’s certainly capable.

Off the turf today unfortunately

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Off the turf today unfortunately

Ah shoot. Thanks.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Great job with Vinda!

Thanks. Maybe off the turf will be good and I’ll find another longshot.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Finally out of the red with Vinda Machine scoring.

Best bets: $64.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $64.00 wagered. $98.70returned.
Total: $128.00 wagered. $129.00 returned.

Thursday, September 3.

Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Harlem Heights (5/1 ML). This 1/2 sister to Point of Entry should like the surface switch to turf.

Longshot: Race 7 - #5 Five Alarm Robin (8/1 ML). This race looks fairly competitive but Kitten of the Sea removes her blinkers and that may allow Five Alarm Robin a relatively easy lead. Now late into her 4YO year, I’m hoping this one has improved a bit from her 3YO year and is ready to take another step forward. She’s certainly capable.

Point Of Entry is the greatest heavy metal album you’ve never heard in your life.
Point of Entry passed a huge percentage of the hosses he faced. He was awesome

[moses]

Let’s go with:

Best bet: Race 5 - #6 Constitutionalrage (10/1ML). A horse sired by Constitution out of a Tiznow mare and trained by Barclay Tagg. None of the other horses look like anything special and I like the pedigree and works here.

Longshot: Race 2 - #6 My First Grammy (8/1 ML). Key Stat: Mejia and Benji have won 100% of their starts together since August 29th. But really, this horse is talented enough that he was placed into the Florida Derby as a maiden. While he’s no Bodexpress, he’ll appreciate the class relief here. And while the drop in class is massive, this one was purchased for only $57,000 two years ago. That’s less suspicious to me than the class drop for the favorite Long Term Thinking or the $20,000 tag for Advance Notice, purchased for $350,000 two years ago. Maybe none of this means anything, but the figures alone at least put him in contention.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Point Of Entry is the greatest heavy metal album you’ve never heard in your life.
Point of Entry passed a huge percentage of the hosses he faced. He was awesome

One of my good friends growing up liked Judas Priest but I never got into them. I’m 34 though so I think his dad got him into them and they definitely weren’t one of my dad’s favorites.

[moses]

Friday September 4.

I’m really trying to focus on the Derby card so I haven’t looked at these much. So take them with a grain of salt.

Best bet: Race 9 - #13 Uncle George (4/1 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #6 Playtone (15/1 ML).

[theguarantee]

Got caught up with work the last couple days.

Best Bet Race 7 #8 Thin White Duke - Think the 6.5 should be perfect.

Best Value Race 10 #6 Playtone - Last was so bad but I have to give one more chance. Interesting on the stretch out with Joel but admittedly just a stab/chase.

I was going to do a little write up on Churchill but honestly the card seems perfectly straight forward to me. Don’t plan on getting too involved until tomorrow. Will try to post some thoughts in the morning.

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Best bets: $68.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $68.00 wagered. $98.70returned.
Total: $136.00 wagered. $129.00 returned.

Best bet: Race 9 - #7 Mystic Guide (4/1 ML). If they both run, the two Pletcher horses are going to be heavy favorites so I'm looking elsewhere for a little value. I've liked Mystic Guide for a while now and think the addition of blinkers here could help him be more forwardly placed, which should help him going 9 furlongs here.

Longshot: Race 5 - #8 Officiating (10/1 ML). A horrible start to last race but he finished impressively. This could be a competitive group but this one is full of run.