How good is Lava Man?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by FairPlay

Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream was before being fit with blinkers. He's lost 3 times since the blinkers: Pacific Classic where he was vanned off the track after setting insane fractions; JCGC where he was probably rushed back too soon to the races after the PC and wasn't given any time to settle in at the barn at Belmont and he bled in that race; and the Japan Cup where all he did was tear off his foot, left a trail of blood from the track back to his barn, and left the Kenlys and Wood thinking about retiring him.

He's won 9 of his last 12 and won nearly $3.3 Million in those 12 races.

He's the richest horse of a claim in history by daylight now over Budroyale.

He's the first horse since an Eclipse winner named Vanlandingham in 1985 to win a Grade 1 on dirt and turf in the same year in North America.

He's the first horse in 40 years to win back to back Hollywood Gold Cups (Native Diver) and he's the first horse to win back to back summer Hollywood Park Horse of the Meet awards in 40 years, too.

He's the first horse since the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, to win the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup in the same year.

He's the first horse since Exceller to win the Whittingham/Turf Invitational and Hollywood Gold Cup in the year.

He's the first horse ever to sweep the SA 'Cap, HGC, and Pacific Classic in the same year.

You put it altogether and ask how good he is? He's a great horse. Period. You can all demean, show hate, debate, but history is on his side. I'm sure that some knuckleheads were questioning Best Pal or John Henry, but, fortunately, they didn't have Internet bulletin boards for anonymous know-it-alls back then.

You can do the same "who did he beat" crap with Cigar - let's see the only two real horses were probably Holy Bull who broke down in the Donn and Best Pal who was at the end of the road. And think of it, when he faced Skip Away in the JCGC, he lost. Cigar must've been a fraud, right guys? Concern was a fluke BC Classic winner just as Giacomo was a fluke KY Derby winner. Let's see who else Cigar beat? Wekiva Springs, Silver Goblin, La Carriere, Soul of the Matter ... none of them will be going in the HOF any time soon.

Lava Man, so far in his wins, has defeated the JCGC and Pacific Classic Winner, Borrego; Breeders' Cup Juvenile Winner, Wilko; Kentucky Derby Winner, Giacomo; Santa Anita Derby Winner, Buzzard's Bay; Grade 1 winners: Good Reward, Perfect Drift, and King's Drama. None of these dudes are going in the HOF either, but it's not like that he's only faced Grade 3 horses.

I'm NOT comparing Lava Man to Cigar as that would be ridiculous, but I am stating that the moronic b.s. about "who did he beat" should play no role whatsoever in demeaning a horse who has achieved things not seen ever or not seen for one or two generations on the track. The accomplishments speak volumes.

You are right, I'd forgotten he beat Giacomo AND Wilko. It takes a real monster to accomplish that.

I'd forgotten that you were a genius. Sorry.

Originally Posted by FairPlay

Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream was before being fit with blinkers. He's lost 3 times since the blinkers: Pacific Classic where he was vanned off the track after setting insane fractions; JCGC where he was probably rushed back too soon to the races after the PC and wasn't given any time to settle in at the barn at Belmont and he bled in that race; and the Japan Cup where all he did was tear off his foot, left a trail of blood from the track back to his barn, and left the Kenlys and Wood thinking about retiring him.

He's won 9 of his last 12 and won nearly $3.3 Million in those 12 races.

He's the richest horse off a claim in history by daylight now over Budroyale.

He's the first horse since an Eclipse winner named Vanlandingham in 1985 to win a Grade 1 on dirt and turf in the same year in North America.

He's the first horse in 40 years to win back to back Hollywood Gold Cups (Native Diver) and he's the first horse to win back to back summer Hollywood Park Horse of the Meet awards in 40 years, too.

He's the first horse since the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, to win the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup in the same year.

He's the first horse since Exceller to win the Whittingham/Turf Invitational and Hollywood Gold Cup in the year.

He's the first horse ever to sweep the SA 'Cap, HGC, and Pacific Classic in the same year.

You put it altogether and ask how good he is? He's a great horse. Period. You can all demean, show hate, debate, but history is on his side. I'm sure that some knuckleheads were questioning Best Pal or John Henry, but, fortunately, they didn't have Internet bulletin boards for anonymous know-it-alls back then.

You can do the same "who did he beat" crap with Cigar - let's see the only two real horses were probably Holy Bull who broke down in the Donn and Best Pal who was at the end of the road. And think of it, when he faced Skip Away in the JCGC, he lost. Cigar must've been a fraud, right guys? Concern was a fluke BC Classic winner just as Giacomo was a fluke KY Derby winner. Let's see who else Cigar beat? Wekiva Springs, Silver Goblin, La Carriere, Soul of the Matter ... none of them will be going in the HOF any time soon.

Lava Man, so far in his wins, has defeated the JCGC and Pacific Classic Winner, Borrego; Breeders' Cup Juvenile Winner, Wilko; Kentucky Derby Winner, Giacomo; Santa Anita Derby Winner, Buzzard's Bay; Grade 1 winners: Good Reward, Perfect Drift, and King's Drama. None of these dudes are going in the HOF either, but it's not like that he's only faced Grade 3 horses.

I'm NOT comparing Lava Man to Cigar as that would be ridiculous, but I am stating that the moronic b.s. about "who did he beat" should play no role whatsoever in demeaning a horse who has achieved things not seen ever or not seen for one or two generations on the track. The accomplishments speak volumes.

Thank you for pointing out what is obvious: Lava Man is the best older horse in America. He is very special.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by FairPlay

Concern was a fluke BC Classic winner just as Giacomo was a fluke KY Derby winner.

Ya had me in agreement until this statement. Now I am not going to overtake this thread, but don't you DARE diss my little Broad Brush son who ran his heart out everytime! Concern was three times the racehorse that Giacomo will ever be!

Not that you were saying Giacomo was a great horse, but Don't compare my little boy to him. It is demeaning.

Thanks, Bold Reasoning, but that's not my point. Truthfully, Invasor might be the best older horse running in America right now. But for historic impact and significance over the course of a career-to-date, Lava Man is a great horse because of the accomplishments that I listed previously.

And did you know that Hall of Famer Native Diver never won a stakes race outside of California?

I'm much less concerned about the immediacy of Eclipse Awards and the like for Lava Man - it's his historic importance that is being torn about by geniuses who make pithy comments on this thread and others that concern me.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Racing is supposed to be about taking a stand. No " I don't like his chances BUT " opinions do anybody any good. Like a horse....hate a horse...be right....be wrong....but have a f'n position!

Says who? Racing is about many things. If you are talking about handicapping successfully, then it most certainly is NOT about taking the kind of position that says a horse has no chance or says a horse is a lock. Those are the kind of "stands" that complete amateurs would take. Every horse has a chance. The successful capper is one who can tell that the odds he or she is getting on a bet is better than "fair" odds.

I'm sure Rupert will have a "position" when it counts, which is on race day. A reasonable position at that point is NOT "I'm going to bet Lava Man." A reasonable position would be "I'll bet Lava Man if it looks like I'm going to get 6-1", or some other number that Rupert thinks is higher than "fair" odds.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be stunned if Lava Man hits the board in the BC Classic.

Is this your idea of "taking a position"? What does "I will be stunned" mean exactly? Would you give me 50-1 on LM hitting the board? Do you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance of hitting the board? Without even capping the race carefully, I'll take all the action at 9-1 that you want to give. That's a good bet for you if you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance to hit the board. But I'm pretty sure that that bet is not appealing to you. So what is "stunned" exactly?

Let me shift gears a minute. What if I say that Invasor is a great bet at 7-1 in the JCGC? Well, if he wins, am I a genius? If he loses, am I a dope?

If I like Invasor at 7-1 and he loses, so what? If I win 20% of my 7-1 bets, I would be the envy of every sports bettor and handicapper in the world. But winning 20% of the time means losing 80% of the time. (I know you knew that, ;>), but I'm stressing the downside!) So Invasor losing doesn't say much about my capping, does it?

In a similar vein, Invasor winning wouldn't make me a genius either. Maybe Invasor winning is the only 7-1 shot I'll pick in my next 20 bets in that odds range.

Over the course of time if accurate records were being kept, which they certainly aren't here, statements like "I like Invasor at 7-1" would add up and either show the person knows how to cap or doesn't know squat. But tossing out an opinion, or worse, a "stand", here and there doesn't prove anything.

And insisting that someone "take a stand" rather than voice a hedged opinion is ludicrous.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Ya had me in agreement until this statement. Now I am not going to overtake this thread, but don't you DARE diss my little Broad Brush son who ran his heart out everytime! Concern was three times the racehorse that Giacomo will ever be!

Not that you were saying Giacomo was a great horse, but Don't compare my little boy to him. It is demeaning.

Not meant to be demeaning...I was just looking at the career. Concern is probably a better horse than Giacomo, but he (Concern) only won 2 Grade 1's in his career: the Classic and the Californian Stakes when it was a Grade 1. As a footnote, Lava Man won last year's Californian when it was a Grade 2 - does he get bonus points lol.

P.S. I love Broad Brush. Great horse, great sire, should be in the hall of fame without question, as what a horse has done off the track in the breeding shed should be allowed to play a role in selection.

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For a number of reasons I do not believe the performances of many horses at Delaware Park are a fair representation of their actual ability. One reason I believe this is I have seen MANY horses over MANY years run high speed figures at Delaware Park that they simply do not reproduce at other tracks. Another reason is that their barn area has been populated, since the implementation of slots, with a number of trainers who win with a surprisingly high percentage of their starters. These trainers also belonged to the list of trainers who always seemed very adept at improving horses very rapidly once said horses came under their care. Yet another reason is that the State of Delaware was hardly helpful in the attempts by racing to have uniform medication rules.

I've "followed" Delaware for years, but I know I'm not privy to the backstretch goings-on as you are. I'm not sure what trainers you're referring to. Scott Lake is winning at 23% there (he's a guy who's improved horses he's claimed) and he races elsewhere with even better results. Other than Klesaris and Pletcher, the leading trainers are in the 20% realm of winners. One guy I've seen improve dramatically horses he's claimed there is Howard Wolfendale, who is almost a sure thing to win off the claim; but other than that I haven't seen any more dubious outcomes than other tracks.
Delaware was the only track that wouldn't give stall space to Michael Gill after the "year" he had at Gulfstream and the questionable goings-on involving his vet. Now whether you consider that decision right or wrong, it seems to say that Delaware was somewhat concerned with "image" and reputation.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Says who? Racing is about many things. If you are talking about handicapping successfully, then it most certainly is NOT about taking the kind of position that says a horse has no chance or says a horse is a lock. Those are the kind of "stands" that complete amateurs would take. Every horse has a chance. The successful capper is one who can tell that the odds he or she is getting on a bet is better than "fair" odds.

I'm sure Rupert will have a "position" when it counts, which is on race day. A reasonable position at that point is NOT "I'm going to bet Lava Man." A reasonable position would be "I'll bet Lava Man if it looks like I'm going to get 6-1", or some other number that Rupert thinks is higher than "fair" odds.



Is this your idea of "taking a position"? What does "I will be stunned" mean exactly? Would you give me 50-1 on LM hitting the board? Do you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance of hitting the board? Without even capping the race carefully, I'll take all the action at 9-1 that you want to give. That's a good bet for you if you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance to hit the board. But I'm pretty sure that that bet is not appealing to you. So what is "stunned" exactly?

Let me shift gears a minute. What if I say that Invasor is a great bet at 7-1 in the JCGC? Well, if he wins, am I a genius? If he loses, am I a dope?

If I like Invasor at 7-1 and he loses, so what? If I win 20% of my 7-1 bets, I would be the envy of every sports bettor and handicapper in the world. But winning 20% of the time means losing 80% of the time. (I know you knew that, ;>), but I'm stressing the downside!) So Invasor losing doesn't say much about my capping, does it?

In a similar vein, Invasor winning wouldn't make me a genius either. Maybe Invasor winning is the only 7-1 shot I'll pick in my next 20 bets in that odds range.

Over the course of time if accurate records were being kept, which they certainly aren't here, statements like "I like Invasor at 7-1" would add up and either show the person knows how to cap or doesn't know squat. But tossing out an opinion, or worse, a "stand", here and there doesn't prove anything.

And insisting that someone "take a stand" rather than voice a hedged opinion is ludicrous.

--Dunbar

I really don't need your obvious dissertation on value wagering. Thanks for the effort but I actually understood it going in.

On the other hand, while believe it or not, I probably have a better resume of successful wagering than you, I think when discussing horses on this board it gives a poster more credibility if he or she has stronger opinions and doesn't hedge what they say constantly. That was the point I was making.

All I said was I would be shocked if Lava Man hits the board. I never said I was taking a stand though I am quite sure that come race day I will take a stand that at least somewhat hinges on that opinion ( where it counts...at the betting windows ). The fact that you have chosen to assault me as though I made some outrageous claims about that opinion is what is actually, to steal a word from your post, ludicrous.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Says who? Racing is about many things. If you are talking about handicapping successfully, then it most certainly is NOT about taking the kind of position that says a horse has no chance or says a horse is a lock. Those are the kind of "stands" that complete amateurs would take. Every horse has a chance. The successful capper is one who can tell that the odds he or she is getting on a bet is better than "fair" odds.

I'm sure Rupert will have a "position" when it counts, which is on race day. A reasonable position at that point is NOT "I'm going to bet Lava Man." A reasonable position would be "I'll bet Lava Man if it looks like I'm going to get 6-1", or some other number that Rupert thinks is higher than "fair" odds.



Is this your idea of "taking a position"? What does "I will be stunned" mean exactly? Would you give me 50-1 on LM hitting the board? Do you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance of hitting the board? Without even capping the race carefully, I'll take all the action at 9-1 that you want to give. That's a good bet for you if you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance to hit the board. But I'm pretty sure that that bet is not appealing to you. So what is "stunned" exactly?

Let me shift gears a minute. What if I say that Invasor is a great bet at 7-1 in the JCGC? Well, if he wins, am I a genius? If he loses, am I a dope?

If I like Invasor at 7-1 and he loses, so what? If I win 20% of my 7-1 bets, I would be the envy of every sports bettor and handicapper in the world. But winning 20% of the time means losing 80% of the time. (I know you knew that, ;>), but I'm stressing the downside!) So Invasor losing doesn't say much about my capping, does it?

In a similar vein, Invasor winning wouldn't make me a genius either. Maybe Invasor winning is the only 7-1 shot I'll pick in my next 20 bets in that odds range.

Over the course of time if accurate records were being kept, which they certainly aren't here, statements like "I like Invasor at 7-1" would add up and either show the person knows how to cap or doesn't know squat. But tossing out an opinion, or worse, a "stand", here and there doesn't prove anything.

And insisting that someone "take a stand" rather than voice a hedged opinion is ludicrous.

--Dunbar

Yes, I agree with pretty much everything you said. When it comes to taking a stand in general whether you're talking about a stock, a sports team, or a horse, I have always found that the really successful people are more conservative with their prdictions than the people who are not successful. It's fuuny how the biggest losing players are the ones who will "guarantee" you that a certain team is going to win or they are "positive" that a stock will go up. The guys who are the most successful will rarely make bold predictions, they will tell you their opinion but they will usually throw in a disclaimer as to why they might be wrong. I've got a frined who is a really successful money manager who is woth over $100 million. he doesn't give me stock picks too often but when he does his record has been incredible. He gave me one stock at $14 and it went to $70 within a year. He gave me another one at $16 that went to $80 in less than a year. As good as this guy is, he never acts like any of these stocks are "sure things".

There is another guy who was a childhood friend of mine that I hadn't spoken to in a long time. I heard he was a stock broker so I gave him a call to see what his thoughts were. He was a relatively bright guy as a kid but I had no idea whether he was a good stock broker or not. It took me about 3 minutes on the phone with him to figure out that he was not a very good broker. He told me that some $50 stock would go to $100 within 6 months. I said, "Wow, you think so?" He said, "I know so!" Right when he said that, I thought to myself "This guy is a schmuck." Who would say, "I know so!" He actually said "I know so!" about each predition that he gave me. By the way, it was no surprise to me when I heard that he was broke a couple of years later.

Originally Posted by Gander

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average

Okay, well please tell me how the East Coast horses are when they ship out West? Or are the East Coast horses too good to ship out west? Its the East Coast bias thing going on again on this board. It will never change.

When Saint Liam ran a dud out in California, he was excuse for it, it was blamed on the track surface. But when Lava Man was up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he is deemed an inferior and overrated west coast horse. Regardless of what he has done this year, all anyone ever brings up is that Belmont race. Oh by the way Flower Alley was terrible in that race too. But he gets excused for it because of where he is based and who his trainer is. Blah! I dont wanna hear this jibberish anymore.

This is an easy one...i'm basing this on past performances and not my opinion....look at his last three finishes outside the state of California....that is called a distinct pattern, sir......he is NOT the same horse when he leaves the Golden state....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I really don't need your obvious dissertation on value wagering. Thanks for the effort but I actually understood it going in.

On the other hand, while believe it or not, I probably have a better resume of successful wagering than you, I think when discussing horses on this board it gives a poster more credibility if he or she has stronger opinions and doesn't hedge what they say constantly. That was the point I was making.

All I said was I would be shocked if Lava Man hits the board. I never said I was taking a stand though I am quite sure that come race day I will take a stand that at least somewhat hinges on that opinion ( where it counts...at the betting windows ). The fact that you have chosen to assault me as though I made some outrageous claims about that opinion is what is actually, to steal a word from your post, ludicrous.

I know a little bit about Dunbar and I can tell that I would be extremely surprised if you have made more money gambling than he has. I'm not saying you haven't because I don't know anything about you. I'm saying that you would have had to have made some serious money over the years gambling because Dunbar has been successful at it for a long time. He's not afraid to step up to the plate either.

[SentToStud]

What's the big deal about all this?

Lava Man has knocks. Great year, but can he travel, etc...?

Bernidini's just a 3 yo. Great year, but can he beat older?

Invasor's not all that thrilling. Great year, but beating Sun King by a nose?

Wouldn't be surprised to see any or all of them lose or run out of the exacta. Hopefully that will be my opinion on BC Day.

I appreciate peoples' opinions and there's nothing wrong having one.

But all the salty comments are kind of silly, still seven weeks out.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will take a stand....Fleet Indian will never win another race and I will be surprised if she even makes the Breeder's Cup. And, if she does, Baletto will finish ahead of her.

I agree 100%...Fleet Indian would only be a pace factor in a race like the BC Distaff, where Balletto's late run would be much more highy beneficial....Happy Ticket would stalk and pounce on Fleet Indian and break her heart so quickly on the far turn that it would make her head spin....

Also, if Oonagh McCool can return to her best, she is the distaffer in that barn with a Spun Sugar a close second....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I know a little bit about Dunbar and I can tell that I would be extremely surprised if you have made more money gambling than he has. I'm not saying you haven't because I don't know anything about you. I'm saying that you would have had to have made some serious money over the years gambling because Dunbar has been successful at it for a long time. He's not afraid to step up to the plate either.

Certainly giving me a ridiculously simple ( and wholly unnecessary ) lecture on " any horse is playable at the right price " does not encourage me to believe he is a big winner at the racetrack. Anything is possible but his opening salvo hardly made me a believer. Now seeing that you two have some kind of relationship makes his unnecessary interuption even less interesting.

Regardless, it's all just an exchange of thoughts, nothing more. I enjoyed it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I agree 100%...Fleet Indian would only be a pace factor in a race like the BC Distaff, where Balletto's late run would be much more highy beneficial....Happy Ticket would stalk and pounce on Fleet Indian and break her heart so quickly on the far turn that it would make her head spin....

Also, if Oonagh McCool can return to her best, she is the distaffer in that barn with a Spun Sugar a close second....

Oonagh McCool? She was just a dress rehearsal for Fleet Indian. Her career came to an abrupt halt in the Go For Wand much like Indian Vale's did in the Shuvee.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I really don't need your obvious dissertation on value wagering. Thanks for the effort but I actually understood it going in.

On the other hand, while believe it or not, I probably have a better resume of successful wagering than you, I think when discussing horses on this board it gives a poster more credibility if he or she has stronger opinions and doesn't hedge what they say constantly. That was the point I was making.

And that's the point I was trying to attack. I'm sorry if it came across as personal.

IMO, the whole (handicapping) game is about having carefully formulated opinions. My impression from your posts in this thread was that you equate a "strong" opinion with an extreme opinion. I thought you wanted people to say "A horse is going to win" or "isn't going to win". Those are the kind of statements that I think have little value, and I don't think they give a poster credibility. Quite the contrary.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

All I said was I would be shocked if Lava Man hits the board. I never said I was taking a stand though I am quite sure that come race day I will take a stand that at least somewhat hinges on that opinion ( where it counts...at the betting windows ).

I'm not sure how that differs from what Rupert was doing, which you seemed critical of.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The fact that you have chosen to assault me as though I made some outrageous claims about that opinion is what is actually, to steal a word from your post, ludicrous.

I'm honestly sorry if it came across as an assault on you. I was indeed ticked at the idea that a strong (unhedged?) opinion brings credibility, but I did not mean to make it personal. I could have chosen much better wording.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

No problem. To be honest I realized when I was posting the " take a stand " diatribe that it was, in essense, contrary to successful wagering. I was just somewhere between having fun and making a point.

I guess I just feel like in the fairy tale world of the internet it's a little more fun if we have stronger opinions of specific horses and races. It makes the arguments more entertaining. I think the depth of opinions will identify the ones worth paying attention to anyway.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No problem. To be honest I realized when I was posting the " take a stand " diatribe that it was, in essense, contrary to successful wagering. I was just somewhere between having fun and making a point.

I guess I just feel like in the fairy tale world of the internet it's a little more fun if we have stronger opinions of specific horses and races. It makes the arguments more entertaining. I think the depth of opinions will identify the ones worth paying attention to anyway.

That's totally reasonable. I'm confident we'll have no shortage of strong opinions as we head to the BC. In fact, I'm going to take a stand that there will be more strong opinions voiced than either of us want to read! Man, talk about going out on a limb. ;>)

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Oonagh McCool? She was just a dress rehearsal for Fleet Indian. Her career came to an abrupt halt in the Go For Wand much like Indian Vale's did in the Shuvee.

You are sharp enough to know how fillies can get...don't discount her off of one bad effort...she is pretty darn talented...so is Indian Vale although she is probably done for good...the Shuvee also took out Smuggler, who I thought had a real shot at having a nice 4-year-old campaign....thats racing fillies for ya....

IMO, Oonagh McCool is the second best distaffer in the country aside from Happy Ticket...Now, whether she is right or not, I cannot answer that...Certainly, there is reason for concern at this point and the worries would be valid and understandable....

I don't think they'll beat Happy Ticket at CD in the Distaff if she is right...I really don't...But, then again I know her issues and what she is all about because of the Louisiana connections....they knew she would probably lose on that Del Mar track last out - but she loves the coushin at Churchill and will be fine there....