Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[Calzone Lord]

Juvy Sprint:

Secret Circle towers over everyone else on form.

His debut win was a tremendously impressive performance on synthetic - and the horses he obliterated that day have all run back to or exceeded their figures.

He won with a dream stalk and go trip last time out. He was a clear 3rd behind lively paced duelers -- took command from softened up runners -- and had nothing of quality behind him to challenge him late.

Secret Circle is going to have to face more pressure, adversity and work harder early-on in this spot -- he's not going to be able to run his most efficent race like last time -- but it shouldn't matter. The day will start chalky.



Juvenile Fillies Turf:

I'm playing against 2-to-1 ML favorite Elusive Kate -- her Europeans races look great on paper - but I wasn't impressed when I studied them. Somali Lemonade (3-to-1 on the ML) is also a complete play against from the 14-hole.

Stopshoppingmaria's half siblings are a combined 0-for-19 in dirt routes versus 8-for-30 in turf races. Several of them performed best on turf. She gets more turf influence from sire More Than Ready. Connections are probably right going here instead of trying My Miss Arillua again in a large field two-turn dirt route. I think she's a wildcard and will include her.

Using 2, 4, 5, 6, and 8 in the multi-wins... all of them are 8-to-1 or more on the ML and a case could be made they are the five horses with the five best chances in this race after the post draw.


F AND M Sprint:

I think Switch is the most likely winner and Tanda (somehow 20/1 on the ML) has a very good look.

I am surprised everyone thinks Turbulant Descent will go favored in this race. I look forward to betting against her.


Juv Fillies:

If My Miss Aurelia relaxes early and is able to run an efficent race she will bury this field. She's out of Sea of Secrets sprinter My Miss Storm Cat and is a half to Albergatti (who got into a destructive speed duel when refusing to rate and caused a complete pace meltdown in his inital two-turn attempt)

Grace Hall, Weemiss Frankie, and Miss Netta are the three solid underneath horses -- and all would benefit tremendously and establish a stranglehold on this race if MMA refuses to relax and bombs.

Northern Passion was entered in the wrong race. She probably would have won the Filly turf race ... don't like her here in this hot paced dirt race. Her dam Touch Of Glory was a turf specialist who couldn't stand up on a dirt track.


Four races in so far. More to come later.