Belmont Fractions

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Don't worry, I've watched it. I also saw the trainer make his comments and despite how you are portraying them he was not happy with the ride at all. What I saw was Luv Gov drop back into Mine that Bird's face and Calvin decided to pass him and then for some bizarre reason decided to try and pass the rest of the field like he was on Secretariat.

You could easily tell the trainer wasnt happy with the ride. he even said that he moved too soon.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Bailey is a comedian, but hey there is name recognition there.

A better question Bailey should have said after the race was if Smith had stayed on MTB for the Belmont would he have won the race, I know Borel is gods gift to riding and the fact he has been a so so rider in a small bond is just the breaks one gets, but Smith has one a couple races at Belmont, maybe even like 10 and he would not have made that move with a dead one run closer.

I thought Bailey's comments was what you would want from an analyst, certainly you don't want someone coming on saying all the politically correct things...in essence having a love in with the horses and riders...when you look at the footage presented with his comments it made it more palatable. However if you are a Mike Smith fan you probably couldn't help but feel you were thrown under a train, to have someone say if Borel rode MTB in the Preak and that he would have won is something I feel is totally unfair.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it may have been amazing, but in the end, it didn't help him. wooley said he was the best horse in the race...that may be so, but the other birdstone won it. and borel may have moved prematurely, but i don't think that's what cost the horse the race. his kick didn't have that same oomph.

when he made the move around the turn, it for sure had as much oomph as the Derby and the Preakness.

There is no question he moved prematurely, and it cost him 2nd, if not the race (I dont really agree that there was no way he was beating Summer Bird).

Dunkirk ran a good race too, and dug in after MTB passed him at the top of the stretch.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

because he kicked from 7f to 10f...that's when he flew. Just like the Sunland Derby when he kicked from 5f to 8f...nothing left. Borel was no different today than Casey Lambert at Sunland. Running your 5th quarter in a 12f race in 23 flat or slightly below is plenty of oomph to me....just quite a bit mistimed. IF he runs that 5th quarter closer to 24 seconds, I'm guessing he doesn't drown completely the last 8th or quarter. It's all speculation. To me he repeated his Sunland Derby race. He got good rides in the Derby and Preakness waiting to use his 3f kick....His Sunland races and the Belmont were identical. Used too early and then going flat as a pancake the final furlong. I don't know this, but based on his 5 races this year...it seems obvious when you need to move him.

One more thing... I agree with everyone on here that it was a very big mistake for Boral not to have ridden a race there that day.. or any races the past week.. you would assume that the jock would want to be out there at least once to feel how that track is playing. For him to say the rail was dead is just comical.

Summer bird had a great trip... if you would switch his trip with MTB's, and have MTB get Summer Birds trip... Calvin would have won the race. of course that point is MOOT.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Summer Bird got a perfect set-up yesterday. The track at Belmont yesterday, as on Derby Day at Churchill, was not a speed biased race track; rather, the rail was golden. While Dunkirk was setting a strong pace, Summer Bird was covered up comfortably on the inside until the 3/8 pole, when Desormeaux tipped him out to make a well-timed run.

Based on his post-race comments, there is little doubt in my mind that an overconfident Borel moved prematurely with Mine That Bird. Also, for a guy who has made reputation for riding the rail at Churchill, this quote from Pat Forde's column on the ESPN site has got to go down as one of the all-timers:

Borel has made his name with rail-skimming rides and won both his Kentucky Derbies that way -- his ride on Mine That Bird was a ground-saving genius. Yet this time Borel was rarely near the rail, and when he made his move he was about four-wide on the turn.

He said afterward that the rail was dead, which made it a perilous place to run. But winner Summer Bird spent much of his trip down the backstretch far inside.

Perhaps if Borel had ridden a race on the Belmont undercard (instead of taking off his sole - albeit turf - mount), or even watched the races yesterday, he might not have reached such a foolish conclusion. I'm not saying that Mine That Bird would have won the race with a decent ride by Borel, but he was certainly hindered by his rider yesterday.

My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

One more thing... I agree with everyone on here that it was a very big mistake for Boral not to have ridden a race there that day.. or any races the past week.. you would assume that the jock would want to be out there at least once to feel how that track is playing. For him to say the rail was dead is just comical.

Summer bird had a great trip... if you would switch his trip with MTB's, and have MTB get Summer Birds trip... Calvin would have won the race. of course that point is MOOT.

Calvin should have been begging every connection in the Brooklyn to let him ride that race. Hell, he should have paid them for the chance to ride their horse. Getting a 12 furlong dirt race in before the Belmont would have been huge.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Calvin should have been begging every connection in the Brooklyn to let him ride that race. Hell, he should have paid them for the chance to ride their horse. Getting a 12 furlong dirt race in before the Belmont would have been huge.

Before the race they asked him if not riding that day or the past week was going to affect him in the Belmont.

He said that he had tons of experience, racing in about 3.4 trillion races in his career, and it wasnt going to be an issue and nobody should question his experience.

Well he was wrong!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Before the race they asked him if not riding that day or the past week was going to affect him in the Belmont.

He said that he had tons of experience, racing in about 3.4 trillion races in his career, and it wasnt going to be an issue and nobody should question his experience.

Well he was wrong!

And as much as I dislike Kent, he was quoted before the race as calling Calvin naive for thinking that which turned out 100% true.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by CSC

My opinion is if they ran the race 10 times same distance/same track. Summer Bird will always have the advantage, I don't think it's even close actually. Summer Bird is a 1 1/2 horse through and through, his runs are powerful sustained runs made for 1 1/2 and for Belmont whereas MTB's are short quick bursts probably maxed out at 1 1/4(he actually hung the last 1/16th in the Preak). I really don't get this argument that he could have beaten Summer Bird, I agree there's a slight chance it may have cost him 2nd but I actually think 3rd was a good result for him but there was no way he was the best horse this Belmont.

I don't get the argument that he couldn't have beaten Summer Bird. The horse went 22.92 from a mile to 10 furlongs and then 26.36 from 10 furlongs home. You don't think if he sat in a more reasonable 24 seconds or even in 23.5 that he would have had tons more in the tank to go more than 26.36 for the final two furlongs?

[SniperSB23]

Just for comparison sake, the fractions from 8 to 10 furlongs for recent Belmont winners:

Da Tara - 25.25
Rags to Riches - ??? 24.0 ish
Jazil - 24.76
Afleet Alex - 25.64
Birdstone - 24.84
Empire Maker - 24.54

Anyone have Rags PPs in front of them to know how many lengths back she was at the mile?

I don't understand how people can look at those and not see how absurd the 22.92 was. Summer Bird and Dunkirk ran faster quarters there than any recent Belmont winner because of Calvin's ridiculous move.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't get the argument that he couldn't have beaten Summer Bird. The horse went 22.92 from a mile to 10 furlongs and then 26.36 from 10 furlongs home. You don't think if he sat in a more reasonable 24 seconds or even in 23.5 that he would have had tons more in the tank to go more than 26.36 for the final two furlongs?

I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.

What we do know is that Summer Bird could have probably kept running another furlong or 2 if need be, he was the only horse that was not spent after the race, I do believe had Kent Gotten him out earlier he would made this discussion a mute-moot one. The horse was feeling so good, Kent had his hands full down the backstretch that no one talks about him running up on heels causing him to check/steady atleast twice by my count. It was hardly a perfect trip in my opinion just as it was not a bad trip either. He was simply the best horse for this type of race/track/distance.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.

DrugS might be the best person to explain the raw numbers things but it doesn't matter as the raw number or any number thing is not the way to go. First, races are complex events that are not merely explainable in terms of how fast they're run (either in total or in sections). If these were time trials, then I'd be all for speed (and even pace) figures; but they're not. These races are about how they're played out. There are a number of 'types' of races and subsets of these types. Once you look at a few thousand of them, like I have, you start to get a sense of what's 'normal' and what isn't. Which horses ran well and which didn't. I could put a ton of effort into trying to fit races within my methodology, as all the figure makers apparently do, or I could let the horses in the race indicate to me what exactly is happening.

Thinking of these races in terms of numbers fails for a number or reasons: 1) numbers bias one's interpretation of the race: fast splits are supposed to indicate one thing, slow splits another, YET, we constantly (especially on poly and turf) see that these supposed truisms are really wise tails, as there are countless counterexamples. Refer back to the slow pace biased interpretations of the Gotham, for example. 2) numbers is just one way of looking at the race; that set is a subset of a larger set, the race itself, and thus is not comprehensive.

You of all people should be aware of some of this **** as you play quite a bit of turf and poly. You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. (The Sartinistas get some of this, as do the Match Up guys, but they don't do it within the context of the race.) This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.

As you know I've stated before the Belmont the reasons why I liked Summer Bird and why I didn't like the chances of Mine That Bird. While as outrageous at the time it may have seemed I truly believed Summer Bird was going to win the Belmont even if Rachel Alexandra was running(I wish she had), he was the best horse from a value standpoint, from a distance profile, running style, in terms of a horse coming up to a race, all the reasons you want to see in a horse coming up to a big race. You mention bursts in races, and my problem with Mine that Bird is on a dry track he has he has only one quick burst to expend in a race, which may work on turf courses, but something that in my opinion not as effective in a dirt race at 1 1/2 at Belmont. Summer Bird on the other hand has a efficient grinding style that can be sustained (watch him gallop out) and that worked to his advantage Sat, it is my belief with the blinkers added for this race he could have layed closer to the pace as he basically dragged the Kent around the track until he was given his cue, to suggest that MTB would have done the same thing is a leap, he cannot race close to the pace or certainly hasn't been successful at it to this point. These are 2 vastly different horses and really I think Borel is being made a scapegoat for perhaps losing 1 placing at most. I am confident if they ran the race over again, Summer Bird would win over 80% of time unless Ice plans on having Rosier back aboard. The only way he could lose it is if he was too far back. Finally Kent D didn't win the race, Summer Bird did, all Kent D did was have him closer to the pace than Rosier did with the aid of blinkers...and steer him in the right direction.

[the_fat_man]

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

Basically the what 'if' scenario for Mine That Bird Sat is he would need a perfect trip, perfect pace set up and perfectly timed ride to even have a chance of winning the Belmont. Is this really the argument one wants to make that this was the best horse that ran Sat? Anyway I too have said enough on this, I'll let others take over the discussion unless I have anything new to add to it.

[cmorioles]

One thing that is lost in this, in my opinion, is that the premature move was the only way he was going to beat Dunkirk. Allowing him to run up front through moderate fractions (yes, moderate), and waiting til the end was not going to work either.

I think with a better ride, he was 2nd, just perhaps a different horse winning if he waits.

[sdjcom]

yes calvin misjudged the pace,and i give him the benefit of the doubt that MTB was fighting him and a little rank so he let him go early, hell even willie the shoe misjudged the finish, so he's human. Also i think if he would have waited longer the outcome would have probably been the same. The three races just took a little out of him but remember he still finish third. He really wanted the calvin crown and that was some pressure, but he's human and the limlight the last few weeks ,it's hard to focus, but hell take it while you can, and besides not me or anyone else on here has ever had their big butt on a racehorse at 40 mph so who am i to say what calvin felt on the ride. i give him a pass, but i'm sure he learned a lot about staying focused all week up to a big race,and how about that,KD? the monkey off his back and he will be a relaxed force to deal with the rest of his career,congraulations to him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

One thing that is lost in this, in my opinion, is that the premature move was the only way he was going to beat Dunkirk. Allowing him to run up front through moderate fractions (yes, moderate), and waiting til the end was not going to work either.

It is tough to tell. Charitable Man did make it ten furlongs so he may have been able to press Dunkirk long enough to soften him up for the stretch. Who knows, maybe no early move by Mine that Bird could have made for a Dunkirk/Charitable Man/Mine that Bird/Summer Bird superfecta.

[tiggerv]

Good stuff TFM. I always enjoy the graphs.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

With the Fat Chart it appears that either Dunkirk or Mine That Bird ran the two best races, and that Summer Bird was worst.

My impression from the race was that Summer Bird was best.
The logical question would be "was Summer Bird capable of more, had he been asked for more?" - and that answer is almost always "No".
Still I am not 100% sold that Summer Bird wasn't best.

I see the big dramatic line angle of Mine That Birds move...
and I see the half mile break that Dunkirk gets.
But I am also stubbornly aware of the 1st quarter that Dunkirk sets(and Mine That Bird contrasting 11 lengths behind) and how fast that is for 3yos going 1.5miles.