Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Nevermind?!?

I cancelled meetings and pumped up my ADW account in anticipation of your release.

Joe, this is worse than lying about your parents dying in a car accident and leaving you $12,000,000.00.

Much worse.

what ?

[Bobby Fischer]

Monmouth race 4 $2 win on #1 secret vendetta

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Monmouth race 4 $2 win on #1 secret vendetta

lose, loss = 2
new bankroll = $1053.20

Comments: dumb bet all the way around. Embarassing when you don't remember that an entry is in the 12post rather than the 1post. Mistakes happen.

[Bobby Fischer]

del R8 $2 win on #4

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

del R8 $2 win on #4

lose, loss = 2
new bankroll = $1051.20

Comments: good price on the winner Wheels up At Noon. I should have noticed how well he was suited to the course. I knew #4 Salinja was the class here, but also that he tends to flatten in the stretch. Was not a good bet considering he would need things to go his way. Perfect ride from Jeremy Rose on the winner- couldn't have timed the course any better with the turn out of the shoot, followed by the first turn.

[hockey2315]

Any reason you bet so small with a $1000 bankroll?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Any reason you bet so small with a $1000 bankroll?

I don't want randomness to skew my results. I also wasn't feeling very focused, and in fact did make mistakes.

[hockey2315]

Wouldn't the size of your bankroll help counter-balance any randomness?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wouldn't the size of your bankroll help counter-balance any randomness?

If i used a 10,000 bankroll it would be less random than a 1,000 bankroll using the same bet sizes.

but if I wager $2k a race, than even a $10,000 bankroll would be exposed to randomness.

I use the formula Bankroll*Value*hit%*0.033 to determine a safe betsize, which would equal $14 for the last race. (1050*$1.35*0.30*0.033=14)
I can go below the suggested wager size but not over.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

If i used a 10,000 bankroll it would be less random than a 1,000 bankroll using the same bet sizes.

but if I wager $2k a race, than even a $10,000 bankroll would be exposed to randomness.

I use the formula Bankroll*Value*hit%*0.033 to determine a safe betsize, which would equal $14 for the last race. (1050*$1.35*0.30*0.033=14)
I can go below the suggested wager size but not over.

I WILL BE making a large win/place bet on the #5 in the next race at belmont.... please wish me luck

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

If i used a 10,000 bankroll it would be less random than a 1,000 bankroll using the same bet sizes.

but if I wager $2k a race, than even a $10,000 bankroll would be exposed to randomness.

I use the formula Bankroll*Value*hit%*0.033 to determine a safe betsize, which would equal $14 for the last race. (1050*$1.35*0.30*0.033=14)
I can go below the suggested wager size but not over.

I usually use 5% of my bankroll for prime plays. . . maybe 2-2.5% for regular. . .

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I usually use 5% of my bankroll for prime plays. . . maybe 2-2.5% for regular. . .

good way to do it.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont race 2 $4 place on #3

$2win on #3 and 4

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont race 2 $4 place on #3

$2win on #3 and 4

win, return 13.80 (5.80+8.00)
new bankroll = 1057.00

[Bobby Fischer]

belmont race 4
$2 exacta 10-4

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

belmont race 4
$2 exacta 10-4

lose, loss = $2
new bankroll = 1055.00

Comments: handicapped the major player right in INFL but judged the two favorites wrong. Using both on top would have reduced value.

[Bobby Fischer]

belmont race 8 $2 show #7

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

belmont race 8 $2 show #7

lose, loss = $2
new bankroll = 1053.00

Comments: I misjudged Banrock's ability level, and the race quickened nicely with a quality finis. Just a bad pick in hindsight.

[Bobby Fischer]

woodbine r2 $2 show on #3

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

woodbine r2 $2 show on #3

lose, loss = $2
new bankroll = 1051.00

comments: getting warmed up for a big day.