7/18 (CNL): Virginia Derby (G2); Virginia Oaks (G3)

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Who thinks he isn't going to be bet very hard? This race is unbettable in my opinion. Nicanor will be bet hard and is the only horse in this field that might not be a total pig. That Colonial Turf Cup was a bunch of mediocre horses giving uninspired performances. Plus when you look at Nicanor's pace figures there is no real reason to think anyone can push him harder than he pushed himself in his last two races.

People on the other board are predicting 8-1 on him. I think the O/U on his odds is somewhere around 5/2. He can win I guess, but he's a total play against.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I dont know man.. I mean he should be like the 6th choice.. but I'm sure will go off higher. Just dont know if people will bet him as hard in a G2 as they did in Gulfstream in a maiden. I dont know if gamblers are that stupid, and do you really expect a ton of new fans running to the track to put $2 on Barbaro's brother?

I could see him being the 4th choice instead of the 2nd choice (but then again ya never know). He SHOULD be like 15-1 or 20-1 but I wouldnt be surprised if he's 7-1 or 8-1, instead of 5/2.

Have you looked at the PPs for this race? I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much tougher than an allowance against older horses at Delaware. Nicanor will be 8/5 and should be 5/2.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Have you looked at the PPs for this race? I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much tougher than an allowance against older horses at Delaware. Nicanor will be 8/5 and should be 5/2.

i havent looked and have no idea what I'm talking about actually.

I Shouldnt have even posted a comment. (seriously)

[SniperSB23]

Nicanor is the 7-2 morning line favorite. Battle of Hastings 4-1, Hold Me Back 5-1.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Have you looked at the PPs for this race? I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much tougher than an allowance against older horses at Delaware. Nicanor will be 8/5 and should be 5/2.

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-bt-

[-BT-]

dave you're more then welcome to hang out with us, gonna find out tonight about my travel plans.
http://www.colonialdowns.com/track/s...ellatables.php
as far as i know those tables are still available, they don't have them as sold out yet. but i don't really see any perk for the $200 you're paying to get them, aside from a rail view, and considering they're on the turf..........

Jockey Club? somebody plans on getting there early, first come first serve for $45

-bt-

[King Glorious]

Nicanor is the clear early speed? Really? I wouldn't play him at less than 8/1 here. I like Affirmatif and Battle of Hastings.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

By no means am I claiming that was a good field in the allowance race, all I am saying is that I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much better because I think the Colonial Turf Cup was a pretty crappy collection of racehorses. I don't think there is anything great about Nicanor but there isn't another horse in this field that I am buying into as a decent race horse which makes this race unbettable for me.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by -BT-

dave you're more then welcome to hang out with us, gonna find out tonight about my travel plans.
http://www.colonialdowns.com/track/s...ellatables.php
as far as i know those tables are still available, they don't have them as sold out yet.

Jockey Club? somebody plans on getting there early, first come first serve for $45

-bt-

My friend reserved a table last year after they crossed the wire in the '08 Derby...those seats are worse though $70

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Nicanor is the clear early speed? Really? I wouldn't play him at less than 8/1 here. I like Affirmatif and Battle of Hastings.

What about Safety Valve too, as far as speed goes.

I don't know much at all about that track, so those really slow fractions he set at Colonial aren't that impressive, but I have to imagine they will place him forwardly.

[the_fat_man]

Doubtful that Florentino is not setting or with the early pace.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By no means am I claiming that was a good field in the allowance race, all I am saying is that I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much better because I think the Colonial Turf Cup was a pretty crappy collection of racehorses. I don't think there is anything great about Nicanor but there isn't another horse in this field that I am buying into as a decent race horse which makes this race unbettable for me.

After reading that and thinking for a matter of seconds about the Colonial Turf Cup how can you not think Nicanor's allowance was inferior?

I'm not saying that the Colonial Turf Cup was a terrific race, but that collection of chumps Nicanor beat was ATROCIOUS. The Colonial Turf Cup was the Breeders' Cup Turf compared to that allowance race.

Affirmatif can't be a decent horse? I don't like Battle of Hastings is by any means a star or a good bet in this race, but he's a decent horse. Doesn't El Crespo or Florentino have some potential? Step back and look at these horses for what they are, mid-season 3YOs. Gio Ponti didn't look like a world beater when he was entered in this race last year.

NT

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Nicanor is the clear early speed? Really? I wouldn't play him at less than 8/1 here. I like Affirmatif and Battle of Hastings.

I haven't seen anything in the PPs that leads me to believe that the pace in this race will be slow. There's a shi.tload of speed.

NT

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

My friend reserved a table last year after they crossed the wire in the '08 Derby...those seats are worse though $70

its a toss up, i get to bring my own booze/food and you get the air conditioning........i'll probably want to be in your seats after the 4th race

-bt-

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

After reading that and thinking for a matter of seconds about the Colonial Turf Cup how can you not think Nicanor's allowance was inferior?

I'm not saying that the Colonial Turf Cup was a terrific race, but that collection of chumps Nicanor beat was ATROCIOUS. The Colonial Turf Cup was the Breeders' Cup Turf compared to that allowance race.

Affirmatif can't be a decent horse? I don't like Battle of Hastings is by any means a star or a good bet in this race, but he's a decent horse. Doesn't El Crespo or Florentino have some potential? Step back and look at these horses for what they are, mid-season 3YOs. Gio Ponti didn't look like a world beater when he was entered in this race last year.

NT

We'll have to disagree on this one. Here were my thoughts after the Colonial Turf Cup:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...97&postcount=4

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

I certainly wouldn't try. We definitely need 'opinionated' players in the game. It's a GOOD thing.

[hockey2315]

I don't disagree that this field looks really weak (as does the entire division), but I'm not sure what Nicanor has ever done to garner the title of "the one who sucks the least."

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by -BT-

its a toss up, i get to bring my own booze/food and you get the air conditioning........i'll probably want to be in your seats after the 4th race

-bt-

Looking at the the early forecast - they should provide some 'chill' to the hill by some misting tents.

I thought the Jefferson Cup had some decent horses that fit in well here. Florentino doesn't get away this time, but El Crespo could have a shot.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

We'll have to disagree on this one. Here were my thoughts after the Colonial Turf Cup:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...97&postcount=4

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

I'm not attempting to convince you that the Colonial Turf Cup was strong but that the allowance race you're comparing it to was absolutely dreadful and thus significantly worse.

All of this discussion about 3YO turf horses and their relative lack of quality should prompt all of us to give consideration to this being a Red Giant-like Va Derby and should further make even a C-list Euro worth a long look in the Secretariat.

NT