Puzzling Kentucky Derby Picture

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the best 3yo comes out of the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby.

Some good horses in Santa Anita derby next weekend

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the best 3yo comes out of the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby.

Betting against Wood winners has been working out pretty well in the 21st century. i will reserve judgement until I get the final derby PP's though.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

Yup, run your damn horses, they gambled and lost.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses that have run in the top four in the BC have done quite well in the derby

and this affects Cairo Prince's issue? Where did he finish in that race?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

Usually when someone makes such a statement as you have they would provide a scintilla of reasoning why they feel that way. Sorry if I have such high expectations.

No problem on your expectations.

1. Many horses are much different animals in May than November. Much more so than the difference between March and May anyways. IC's point(though sarcastic) about how poorly the top 4 finishers from the BCJ do in the Derby is spot on.

2. Horses getting enough points in the BCJ to already get into the Derby will promote connections to go with even less preps than they do now IMO.

3. The quality of horses you have to beat in a March prep is much better than a November G1, which also makes them more significant.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

No problem on your expectations.

1. Many horses are much different animals in May than November. Much more so than the difference between March and May anyways. IC's point(though sarcastic) about how poorly the top 4 finishers from the BCJ do in the Derby is spot on.

2. Horses getting enough points in the BCJ to already get into the Derby will promote connections to go with even less preps than they do now IMO.

3. The quality of horses you have to beat in a March prep is much better than a November G1, which also makes them more significant.

I pretty much ignore IC as I have never seen him post a real bet. Yadda Yadda Yadda but never see him in the selections thread. Where you and I disagree is that I see the current system as encouraging less preps since the real preps don't start until mid Feb. i think they can structure the system where a G1 or G2 win would be nearly automatic but a G3 not. As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

I pretty much ignore IC as I have never seen him post a real bet. Yadda Yadda Yadda but never see him in the selections thread. Where you and I disagree is that I see the current system as encouraging less preps since the real preps don't start until mid Feb. i think they can structure the system where a G1 or G2 win would be nearly automatic but a G3 not. As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

That's ok.

As I've never seen you post anything interesting, or even something insightful, I feel the same way towards you.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's ok.

As I've never seen you post anything interesting, or even something insightful, I feel the same way towards you.

Cool I'm good with that but at least I have the balls to post my opinions however bad they are in the selections thread. You however seem incapable of leaving the Paddock but seem to know everything about everything. Good luck when you finally decide to put down a bet.

[pmayjr]

so when I post all my wacky ideas in here, but don't post in the selection threads... because most of the time I don't pre-cap races until I get to the track, my opinions are invalid too?

god I love you guys... all of you

[jms62]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

so when I post all my wacky ideas in here, but don't post in the selection threads... because most of the time I don't pre-cap races until I get to the track, my opinions are invalid too?

god I love you guys... all of you

Sorry. We will keep a seat open for you on selections.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

so when I post all my wacky ideas in here, but don't post in the selection threads... because most of the time I don't pre-cap races until I get to the track, my opinions are invalid too?

god I love you guys... all of you

Some people need to impose rigid conditions on themselves to function in life. Without adequate structure, some people implode, thus they need to simplify things. We all do it to some degree.

The funny thing about what jms said is that for about twenty years, horse racing was my religion, and I was as devout a follower as one could imagine. It's very possible that I've placed more bets and gambled more money than he has.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

Me and you are on the same page there. The old system was broke because horses that finished 2nd in either the BCJ or Delta Jackpot were already in the KD, no matter what they did afterward. However, the new system doesn't seem to be doing any better in terms of making horses run as 3-year-olds, which I thought was kind of the goal of it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bogey

OK, so we are inside of five weeks to the Kentucky Derby and things could not be any stranger. We have a Louisiana bred, a California bred, and a New York bred as the winners of their respective last prep races. In Florida and Arkansas the latest preps have produced winners that never started until 2014 and will need to overcome the curse of Apollo. Did I mention that we have what looks like a legitimate contender from Dubai, although he's never raced on dirt. In Kentucky, we have a horse that has never won a race on dirt. There is still hope that things can change drastically in the next couple of weeks, but I can not remember things being this cloudy with less than five weeks to the Run for the Roses.

regarding where the horses are bred, as trainers have pointed out, horses don't know where they were born.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

Betting against Wood winners has been working out pretty well in the 21st century. i will reserve judgement until I get the final derby PP's though.

I don’t think this matters, at all.
I Want Revenge would have been a heavy Derby favorite until he was injured. Eskendereya was a stone cold slam dunk triple crown winner until he was injured. **** happens. Ill tell you now, no one excites me this year, at all. I pray Candys Boy and Hoppertunity destroy California Chrome next weekend. Those are the only 2 horses I want at all as of now, maybe Bayern if he gets it together in Arkansas.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.


It might not just be a plan that backfired. Maybe he really needed that time off. Did he lose weight off the last race? The thing is if he does need time off between races to that degree (and this wasn't just a one time thing where they were trying to get strategic), he's got no business going in the Derby. If you win, you feel bound to go to the Preakness and maybe that's not the best thing for the horse. Aim for things like the Preakness or Haskell.

I'm kinda bummed about Spot's finish. I wanted me some Zito in the Derby, plus the PR for a horse named Spot is kinda great.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the best 3yo comes out of the Wood Memorial or Arkansas Derby.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the two best 3yo's come out of the Santa Anita Derby.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the two best 3yo's come out of the Santa Anita Derby.

Agree. Candy Boy and Hoppertunity.

[philcski]

I don't think Cairo Prince gets in the gate, and that isn't an indictment of the system, it is the fault of the trainer. Leave him in the barn and you risk the horse being flat or a bad trip. I don't think he's all that anyway.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.

I believe there are 11 horses that would be in with old system that are currently out with new system

current cut off 20 points.....

horses with more than 140k graded earnings but under 20 points.

Ride on Curlin
Tamarando
Strong Mandate
Rise Up
Giovanni Boldini
Candy Boy
In Trouble
Noble Moon
Conquest Titan
Dance With Fate
Casiguapo

[Pants II]

As it stands right now Pletcher, Baffert, and Maker will have half the field covered.

Horse Racing is turning into Nascar right before our eyes...but without the fan base.