The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard

[Indian Charlie]

Freddy, part of the idea behind having a message board/forums about horse racing, is to speculate on the future.

It's called, 'having fun'.

If you are only into reading what other people think about things that already have happened, I suggest you stick to watching a bunch of hot winded talking head types on TV.

Me, I trust my opinion and don't usually need to hear what other people think about what I just saw.

I do enjoy trying to see what the future holds for upcoming horses.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Freddy, part of the idea behind having a message board/forums about horse racing, is to speculate on the future.

It's called, 'having fun'.

If you are only into reading what other people think about things that already have happened, I suggest you stick to watching a bunch of hot winded talking head types on TV.

Me, I trust my opinion and don't usually need to hear what other people think about what I just saw.

I do enjoy trying to see what the future holds for upcoming horses.

Agreed with all of the above..I have no clue which of the early colt division candidates look best. Guessing Honor Code has the most upside assuming Shug keeps him together.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The thing not being mentioned is it seems to be a very nice crop of colts. Not sure why any of us feel we can determine who is better then who after 3 races. The good news is there will be some answers to lots of questions coming up.

I said this. 2x. About how good I think this crop is and can be.

[Indian Charlie]

Yeah, well, I was saying that while people were complaining months ago about how this is another bad and boring crop.

So there.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah, well, I was saying that while people were complaining months ago about how this is another bad and boring crop.

So there.

Good 3yr olds all over right now.
Exciting time of year.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Agreed with all of the above..I have no clue which of the early colt division candidates look best. Guessing Honor Code has the most upside assuming Shug keeps him together.

Setback due to bruised ankles

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...nclick_check=1

[Indian Charlie]

Obviously something was amiss with him.

What's he coming back in, the Florida Derby? Against his stablemate?

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Obviously something was amiss with him.

What's he coming back in, the Florida Derby? Against his stablemate?

I thought Shug said the Gotham was possible which I assume means they'd decide to keep'em separate by having Honor Code do the NY prep route instead.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

As of today, I think Cairo Prince is the most underrated. We are all talking about the Shug horses, or Shared Belief. But Prince is blowing races open and winning off easily, his only loss being too a horse most people have very highly rated, Honor Code. Only issue I see is he got better before everyone, and everyone else will catch up. Hopefully he continues to move forward.

DITTO

[letswastemoney]

Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.

[tanner12oz]

He has a turn of foot but ya gotta win...he might be a clunk up superfecta type

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.

His trip today was more a function of the rider not wanting to lose 10 lengths around the first turn more than a lack of any early speed. He was yanked back to go to the rail. It was a no win situation. I think he was *maybe* best today, but how good does that even make him?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

His trip today was more a function of the rider not wanting to lose 10 lengths around the first turn more than a lack of any early speed. He was yanked back to go to the rail. It was a no win situation. I think he was *maybe* best today, but how good does that even make him?

Couldn't agree more on all points. He seemed to break well enough, but what good does it do in those 1 1/16 races at Gulfstream if it's gonna get you parked 5 wide? He might have been best, but like you said, no idea how good that is. Not that it necessarily takes some super animal to win the Florida Derby and/or Kentucky Derby, as we saw last year.

[pmayjr]

I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.

Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I didn't watch the races today, but most people are tweeting that there was a big time speed bias. Just watching the replay, he closed hard into that bias. That should count for something.

Overall, it seemed with the Gulfstream 3yo crop this year, it's very top-heavy, with not much depth. Will be interesting to see who goes in Florida Derby.

The presence of the speed bias is negated by the pace he got to run at IMO. Mexikoma and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ran much better against the bias earlier in the card than Top Billing did.

[RockHardTen1985]

The track did favor speed, but there was a big pace in Top Billings race. He put in an OK run and is what he is, OK. He's still the second best 3yr old in Shugs barn. Nothing today changed that. I am a little concerned with how he flattened out late, maybe he doesn't want as much distance as some people think.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The presence of the speed bias is negated by the pace he got to run at IMO. Mexikoma and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ran much better against the bias earlier in the card than Top Billing did.

Agree.

[cmorioles]

The pace wasn't that strong, and clearly the bias was a MUCH bigger factor than the pace. Also, there is a big difference between naturally dropping back and running into a hot pace later and being drug back and yanked over to the rail to save ground.

Again, I'm no big fan, but he had no shot today from that post on that track.

[Indian Charlie]

I highly doubt he was fully cranked to win this race as well.

I thought what was most interesting was the 1. He looked like he was under some urging pretty early in the race.

[LITF]

I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.

Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.