Beyer: The worst bad-beat story of all time

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

If a track offers a bet and does not know all scenarios, isn't that doing something wrong?

Wrong would have been an incorrect payout, which didn't happen here. We show the same probables for all multi-race bets day-in and day-out. Scratches happen, alter the probable and subsequently impact the payoff. In this case, it was a massive payoff that got knocked.

My first thought it was to find-out whether or not tote can support updating those probables every x-seconds, similar to have the probables for Ex/DD are shown, but that is really just a band-aid.

[blackthroatedwind]

If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.

[Alabama Stakes]

about 20 years ago, my brother hit a pick 6 where his hoss got scratched and he got the favorite. Apparently someone at philly was in the same situation. The guy at philly had a bankroll though, and already had the fave so he bet enough on the second choice to make him the post time fave. Instead of getting the "bad fave" he got the new fave and ends up hitting it for $78k plus another $20k on 5 out of 6's. If that guy at philly hadn't been alert, known the rules, or not had a fat knot of money....no score.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

about 20 years ago, my brother hit a pick 6 where his hoss got scratched and he got the favorite. Apparently someone at philly was in the same situation. The guy at philly had a bankroll though, and already had the fave so he bet enough on the second choice to make him the post time fave. Instead of getting the "bad fave" he got the new fave and ends up hitting it for $78k plus another $20k on 5 out of 6's. If that guy at philly hadn't been alert, known the rules, or not had a fat knot of money....no score.

Well yes as I said before, you can't do this unless you have the means, and the pools aren't huge. In LA, you can move them pretty easily.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.

This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I do think there is a general public perception that those who run racing don't care. We see it all the time with the endless barrage of jabs toward NYRA and other racing entities. In reality, I have never met anyone who works at a racetrack that doesn't care about the sport or wants it to succeed, and the same applies here.

Are there criticisms of racing entities that are without foundation? Absolutely. However, there are critiques of racing operations, customer service, etc., that are completely valid and are never addressed. That they are never addressed can probably be attributed to one of two factors: indifference or incompetence. I'm not sure which is worse.

That said, in this case, I don't attribute the result to either: it's one of the unintended consequences of these relatively new jackpot-type wagers.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'd like to believe what I highlighted above is true, but then there is this paragraph from the column:

"Kennedy phoned Louisiana Downs and was told that another ticket had been sold on the combination at Arlington Park, but he couldn’t get a clear explanation. "Everybody was blowing me off and telling me to grin and bear it," he said."

A quote like this -- I have no idea if it is accurate or not -- certainly adds to that perception.

He called my office before I even made it downstairs after the last race. I was on the phone with him within an hour, and at least three or four times after that. Same with our Dir. of Operations. I then followed-up the next day.

I do think he was sort of stuck in "switchboard" land at one point... sometimes they have a hard time figuring out where to send racing guests. But everyone here knows... I like to play the races too and so I totally understood what he was going through and promised him I would find the answer.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'd like to believe what I highlighted above is true, but then there is this paragraph from the column:

"Kennedy phoned Louisiana Downs and was told that another ticket had been sold on the combination at Arlington Park, but he couldn’t get a clear explanation. "Everybody was blowing me off and telling me to grin and bear it," he said."

A quote like this -- I have no idea if it is accurate or not -- certainly adds to that perception.

His perception of how he was dealt with was certainly skewed by him being miffed at his percieved shortage. I'm sure this was compounded by no one being able to give him a definitive answer.

I'm not sure anyone's feelings at that time could be an accurate depiction of what happened.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Well yes as I said before, you can't do this unless you have the means, and the pools aren't huge. In LA, you can move them pretty easily.

This tells you one thing, dont put money into a bet like this at a track where the pools can be manipulated by a small amount of money to make a certain horse the favorite, and then changes the outcome of being only the only live ticket!! Makes you wonder!!

[Kasept]

Beyer assails 'Jackpots' in spritely ATR turn Tuesday..

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Beyer assails 'Jackpots' in spritely ATR turn Tuesday..

I will listen, I know its a separate subject and one which I have not formed a opinion on. Its just a horrible bet in terms of takeout but if in the grand scheme it was to help racing I suppose it could be a good thing.

Its like the lottery, no one cares about the odds, or the takout, just the "chance" to overcome their current situation with a real influx of cash.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Beyer assails 'Jackpots' in spritely ATR turn Tuesday..

Maybe have these bettors on ATR, could be a good listen

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.

It's a good example, however, because it shows how it can work both ways. We had a pick-4 in NY, I think in 2012, with a similar situation.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Cardus

You engender sprightliness.

[DaTruth]

It was hit for $890k today.

[tanner12oz]

Not sure when it will be but there will be a sweet spot where the carry pays better then the parlay and the public won't be dumping cash in yet...that will be the time to scoop it

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

It was hit for $890k today.

opened chalk chalk...never thought it would payout...i don't like these bets since there is truly no rhyme nor reason